So, you all know by now that Blizzcon 2012 has been cancelled in lieu of an eSports Tournament event "somewhere in Asia".

I'm really disappointed. Not because it was cancelled, but because I was saving up a post for September about Titan!

Right now, "professionals" have predicted that Blizzard's Next Gen MMO is going to be announced at Blizzon 2012, and that number was only going to increase substantially as the date approached (ie, analysts predicting that the Next Gen MMO would be revealed), but I really wanted to wait until the opportune time to say "NOPE", that it wasn't going to be announced. Damn.

I'm still sticking to late 2014-2015 by the way, even though everyone else is saying 2013 or 2014 at the latest right now. :)

You weren't going to miss much at Blizzcon 2012 anyways. If you have read my earlier posts, I made one last year predicting what to expect in 2012-2014. The only game they were going to announce in 2012 was Diablo 3 X1, but due to the major setbacks they have been experiencing with D3, it's understandable that it has been delayed (to 2013), and Blizzcon 2012 would have had no release announcements to speak of. It would have actually ended up just like the "Demon Hunter Blizzcon" (2010) which caused some great disappointment.

This means that there will very likely be two games revealed at Blizzcon 2013 (D3 X1 and WOW X5).

Plus, setting up Blizzcon is a very exhausting event for the team members. Sure, it's a very profitable event, but they have other stuff to worry about without having to deal with the pressure of Blizzcon. During the past Quarterly Shareholders Meeting, Thomas Tippl committed to a "minimum of 2 Blizzard titles in 2012". It really doesn't matter what CUSTOMERS are told or promised; what really matters is what the SHAREHOLDERS are promised.

I think some of the big problems they're having relate to Battle.net. Not stability or performance issues, but rather integration problems with PayPal and their new Battle.net Balance / Blizzard Store / RMAH systems. This might put their integration plans of the Activision Game Catalog into Battle.net on the back burner (e.g. using B.Net Balance to buy Activision games rather than just Blizzard titles, and selling other publisher's games to compete with Steam and even Origin which has just added 11 new publishers.)

On that note, Blizzard has recently started hiring for a ton of "Critical" positions on the Battle.net team. :)

Back To The Announcement, Though..

According to the Blizzcon 2012 cancellation announcement today, more details about the event will be revealed "in the months ahead." Meaning that they're releasing this information very early, when they could have just announced it a few months before Blizzcon. They're making this announcement early for a very good reason.

For a while now, I've been talking about keeping a very careful eye on this week and next.

If a release date announcement is made, it will be done right before the investors conference call (and on a Monday.) If it's not made before the investors call, then the game truly has been delayed until after March. If the release date announcement is not made on the Monday, then the chances of a Q1 release greatly diminish (meaning a Q2 delay off-hand comment made by Mike Morhaime is highly likely during the Q4 call.) Monday, February 6 is the most logical choice but I had said that we don't necessarily have to wait until Feb 6 and that there would be other signs of what might happen beforehand.

For example, if we don't see any new information released during this week and the week of Jan 30 - Feb 3, the probability of a release date announcement diminishes. But, if we see a lot of interesting or unexpected posts (especially about Battle.net), then there's a very good chance of an announcement.

This recent announced by Blizzard is very disappointing to everyone, but it's also surprisingly being done very early. Either this means that they have more bad information to share and they just want to rip that bandaid off now and just get it all over with (so expect more bad news during the call.) OR, they're just getting the bad news for the year out of the way first before revealing the really good news; like an imminent release date announcement, with the game coming out earlier than people were expecting. Blizzard has "promised" Q1 after all, so I'm putting my trust in Blizzard.

This just leaves us back to what I've already been saying; pay attention to the other details they release over the next 2 weeks (up to the days before the shareholders meeting.) And because they have all of this extra time now, we can even certainly expect to see 3 releases this year (instead of just 2). :)

.. is going to blow your mind. Does this clickbait title work?

So, you want to hear something really messed up? I'm willing to bet that no one knows this (except Blizzard).

During the Blizzcon 2010 opening ceremonies, Michael Morhaime said that there were "more than 100,000 virtual attendees" watching across over 100 countries live via DIRECTV. (This was also when Blizzard DOTA was first announced, and he said it would be free to "all Battle.net players in the coming months.")

Next, during the Q3 2010 Earnings Call following Blizzcon 2010, Michael Morhaime said "More than 25,000 people attended the show with another 95,000 paid viewers following along via DIRECTV or the live Internet stream." (27,000 attendees were later reported.)

But wait.. don't you remember all of those RAYV problems? Oh right.. Blizzard also partnered with RAYV to provide live streaming through the Blizzard site.

In 2009 and 2010, Blizzcon was available live via Blizzard (RAYV) and DIRECTV as a Pay Per View event.

To clarify, there were TWO streams available for purchase: DIRECTV and BLIZZARD DIRECT

During the opening ceremonies, all of the official announcements, and shareholders meetings, Michael Morhaime only revealed the DIRECTV numbers. He was very careful about his wording, and he did not share their internal "Blizzard Direct" figures. How interesting.

However, RAYV sure did share this information in one of their official case studies.

Blizzcon 2010 served over 550,000 unique viewers watching over 100,000,000 minutes of online streaming in a single weekend, The [sic] premium package subscription cost $40 and included HD streaming of the entire event plus a special “pet code” [sic]

This was no typo. 550,000 paid viewers are mentioned multiple times in various RAYV releases. (Update: Even though they "served" customers and mention the premium package in the same statement, it's possible that there could be a percentage of free stream viewers in that 550k figure.)

So, there were 95,000 to 100,000 paid DIRECTV customers and over 550,000 paid BLIZZARD customers. HOLY CRAP.

Blizzard only revealed the 95,000 number though. It was a preplanned, calculated, and strategically worded delivery of speech. :)

It makes so much sense too.. with more than 25,000 (to 27,000) attendees and tickets selling out in minutes, why would virtual attendees only be 3x that number? 650,000+ viewers makes much more sense, but Blizzard does NOT want you to know this information.

It's exactly like what Michael Morhaime said, "margins are higher when we sell direct." SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER when sold direct, in fact. (I mentioned that citation yesterday too.)

In their partnership with DIRECTV, they are probably taking a larger cut away from Blizzard. But, by using RAYV technology (back in 2009 and 2010) using their own website and resources, they made a TON more revenue from virtual ticket sales.

But 2011 is even more interesting.

During the Blizzcon 2011 Opening Ceremonies, Michael Morhaime gave a "shout out" specifically to the DIRECTV members only. He said there were "more than 60,000 from 130 countries who bought a virtual ticket." So sneaky. :)

He didn't mention the number of virtual attendees who watched through the direct Blizzard live feed though. And last year, it was over 5 times the number of DIRECTV customers.

SO, IS YOUR MIND BLOWN NOW? (Hopefully not just by the number of actual viewers, but also the other revelation.)

If there were 100,000 DIRECTV customers last year, but only 60,000 this year, it's very likely that even more customers are using the Blizzard live stream this year. (By the way, there were "over 26,000" attendees announced at Blizzcon 2011 vs "over 25,000" at Blizzcon 2010.)

How much do you want to bet that the Blizzard live stream numbers will NOT be shared at this upcoming shareholders meeting? They'll only announce the outsourced DIRECTV figures, and very carefully word it. :)

Blizzard is okay with sharing numbers on behalf of partners or citing research publications (who don't have access to their internal digital numbers), but they're highly secretive when it comes to internal figures and revenues.

* UPDATE (10/26/2011)

RAYV has just updated their blog with statistics from the Blizzcon 2011 live stream.

For the third year in a row, RayV partnered with Blizzard and Direct TV to broadcast Blizzcon to virtual ticket holders. The virtual ticket increases in popularity every year. Virtual ticket holders can tune in on their computers and watch all performances, panels, and matches live. The virtual ticket also guarantees VOD access for up to two weeks after the event is over.

For the first time, RayV also streamed regional Blizzard Tournaments. RayV streamed the GomTV tournament, based in Korea, and the SiTV tournament, based in China. Both streams added to the global reach of the Blizzard and RayV community.

The Blizzcon stream attracted countless online viewers. Over the weekend, RayV delivered over 2.26 Million hours of streamed content. There were over 740,000 viewers worldwide and at some points there were approximately 200,000 concurrent viewers.

So, Michael Morhaime announced that there were "more than 60,000" DIRECTV users who purchased the 2011 virtual ticket. But, there were another 740,000 viewers who used the Blizzard live stream instead of DIRECTV (this figure might also include those who watched the Opening Ceremony and SC2/WOW matches).

Those viewer counts are crazy, no wonder Blizzard doesn't like to share them. The "revealed" DIRECTV paid customers is just a fraction of the "unrevealed" paid customers who go through Blizzard directly. A good example of why digital sales are never revealed either.. if they're not there yet, retail sales will eventually just be a fraction of digital sales.

* -------------------

It's all about wording too, like what this blog has discussed so many.. many times. Remember when they said Blizzcon was a financial loss for the company.. but it was spoken in past tense? Or when Tom Chilton claimed that Mists of Pandaria was just a crazy rumor and speculation?

If you guys were interested in tallying up sales, Blizzcon tickets cost $175 (they were $100 for several years, then $125 in 2009, and then $150 in 2010). Virtual tickets cost $40 this year and last. (In 2010, they made approximately $30 million in revenue with $3-4 million in expenses.)

Because they're delivering streaming services themselves this year, their profit is probably even higher.

Activision Blizzard Objectives

All of these deceptive choice of words and "special features" are showing very clear objectives for the company and just how important it is to keep it secret. When Michael Morhaime said that he's a crazy CEO who gets to make crazy decisions, and "what if we just made Diablo 3 available for free to World of Warcraft subscribers".. that wasn't just a crazy "idea". It was with purpose and it was all part of a strategic plan for the company.

Their objective is to push digital sales of games, expansion packs and DLC as much as possible. Digital sales (and providing sales and services themselves) is more important to them than even Paid Services. DIGITAL SALES IS HUGE FOR THEM. And they're realizing it even more every day since a few years ago.

And, I don't think Blizzard wants their competitors to know just how much money they're making from digital sales. Profit margins are massive if you can cut out the middlemen. They're doing it with games, services, music, and even video streams now.

If other competitors aren't already doing this, they will be hurting badly and simply cannot compete with Activision Blizzard. There are just so many businesses out there that haven't realized the importance of digital delivery and just providing these services in house. They should be outsourcing labor, but OWNING the digital delivery systems and finding clever ways to get their customers to buy from their digital stores. This is how Activision Blizzard is destroying the competition.. if competitors can't keep up, they'll be just like Blockbuster still trying to rent out VHS tapes.

Future Plans

With their heavy emphasis on digital delivery, you can bet that both Activision and Blizzard will be finding new ways (and special promotions like "$10 off if you buy online" or "get it free by buying this") to push digital sales. One method is degrading the quality of retail boxes and promoting environmentalism or "green incentives" to move into digital.

Having an easy delivery system and purchase platform is key. The RMAH "B.NET BUCKS" system is a brilliant method to push even more digital sales.

And you can bet that Titan will be HUGE into the digital delivery system. Special coupons or incentives to buy Titan online, purchase DLC digitally, purchase expansion packs online, seamless client upgrade systems, etc.

To continue pushing the digital delivery method (to eventually replace most of their retail sales), Titan will also be incorporating a heavy payment system internal to Battle.net (e.g. more "B.NET BUCKS") If users can make money using Titan, they'll use their Battle.net credits to purchase more games or Titan expansion packs. Titan expansion packs will probably be smaller and delivered more quickly too, since they weren't able to do it in time for WOW but they can still do it for Titan. And with their digital sales objective, it makes much more sense.

More people (and in particular video game competition) need to be aware of where real game sales profit lies.

I'm finding that investigating new information on the net is getting pretty hard to come by. Unfortunately, there are a lot of tighter controls and internal policies now on how employees are allowed to act or what they are allowed to publish online (small things that they didn't consider before). It wasn't like this 2+ years ago. :)

With all of the exclusive Google sleuthing, I'm also seeing ways in which the search engine can be significantly improved so that casual searchers can get better information. I might write something up on that subject sometime in the future.

Anyways, with most gaming leak information drying up, I'm creating a new post all about finding gaming leaks yourself. And, how anyone can do it themselves with just some simple automated tools.

I'm also trying to finish up a bunch of other stuff, since we'll all be pretty busy this entire weekend and I probably won't be able to post anything new until after the weekend. Other than Blizzcon, I also have a ton of other real life stuff going on this weekend (so I'm going to be missing the second half of the Blizzcon streams on both days unfortunately).

I'm not really expecting much, though. We all pretty much know by now what's going to be happening at Blizzcon:

• Mists of Pandaria video during the opening ceremonies part providing all of the expansion pack details, the non-hero class, and a playable demo. (I can already hear that same Cataclysm narrator saying: "Azeroth has been shattered, but meanwhile within the MISTS there lurks a new evil..")
• SC2: Heart of the Swarm video and game details (players will see new units, gameplay sequences, and be able to play the HOTS expansion pack)
• Diablo 3 (stations setup for playing, new details, more Beta Keys given away)
• I'm hoping for a little surprise though, like the new D3 release date. After all, the original Blizzcon 2011 plan was to have a big Christmas surprise (i.e. late November D3 release date) announcement.
• I can see the whole event almost being identical to Blizzcon 2009 actually. Metzen introducing SC2 units, talk about rumor and speculation, and then the big MoP reveal.
• Mike Morhaime making nervous and unfunny jokes in the beginning before Metzen is brought in. Recap of the "amazing" Blizzcon 2010, and then a recap of Blizzcon 2011 during the closing ceremonies (ugh).

So yeah.. it's all pretty quiet.

But, you know.. there is this little thing that kind of started a little while ago. Enjoy. :)

As mentioned, here are all of the wonderfully leaked goodies (ie, the "motherload" I mentioned). Most of this is related to this year's BlizzCon and I'm sure the (wrong) heads are probably going to roll after releasing this information. =]

Keep in mind, that I'm still not done yet.. this is just the tip of the iceberg. I've saved the best for last and I'm typing as quickly as I can.

- So just to recap, I've already covered the D3 release, the (insightful) financials and subscriber figures with a quick analysis.

- DIABLO 3: The "planned" beta release date will be announced at BlizzCon 2011. The D3 beta will actually be taking place this year, but it's in such a stable state, and no problems are expected, that they expect to have it out before Christmas 2011. Sorry for the duplication, I know I already talked about this and the backup 2nd quarter date.

- DIABLO 3: There's going to be a Diablo 3 press conference before the beta begins, so sometime around August. Below are big D3 details of what will either be announced at BlizzCon or during the press conference.

- DIABLO 3: There's going to be a level cap of 60 (future expansion packs will expand the level cap by 10, it's all just like WoW), they're already planning ahead for the next exp. pack and they have in fact cut out zones, art, and skills/abilities out of the main game to be saved up for later.

- DIABLO 3: It's going to require a persistent internet connection through Battle.net. Disappointing, but I'm not surprised.

- DIABLO 3: The big shocker: Blizzard will be allowing players to buy/sell items, players and gold using an in-game system and real world currency! Seriously, I can't make this shit up. Diablo 3 will be using Blizzard's first gold selling service which they've already been building into Battle.net / Blizzard store code. They're working on a new money meter and "banking system" into Battle.net accounts, so it will probably be a storage system like PayPal for real currency that can be used to purchase games and virtual stuff. This is all being used in future games too, and possible older ones. Players will be encouraged to "stay at home, play games, make money". Because of this, they're implementing a no mods/addon policy in D3 as mentioned earlier so that this system can't be exploited (e.g. Auctioneer).

- TITAN: Just wanted to throw this little piece in here because it's related to this new gold selling system. When you see the pictures in the next post, you'll know what I mean. There will be a lot of buying and selling of virtual and real world items in Titan (tied into heavy social interaction) and this new D3 development indicates that Blizzard wants their customers getting used to this new and controversial approach. I don't want to spoil anything else.. you'll see it soon enough. =]

- WOW FIRELANDS: (Note: This is still being updated). The Firelands content patch should be available in the next couple months. A friend of mine is digging through the details right now, but I'll update this section later today. It's a little low priority as you can imagine, but he did say something about a fire-based cat form for Druids and a flaming (Blizzard Store collectible) mount. =]

- WOW EXP PACK: (Another work in progress) A little more details below, but my sources tell me that the next expansion pack will focus on the Island of Pandaria. This is no April Fool's joke, and yes, they're running out of ideas. You can already guess what race will be playable, and there's going to be a new overpowered healing class. I'm still waiting for more details from my sources and I should have some confirmation soon, but they've never steered me wrong before.

- BLIZZCON 2011: They have much more excitement planned for 2011 and there's going to be a TRIFECTA of announcements. First, there's going to be details, a trailer video (and playable demos) of their next SC2 expansion pack (HOTS). Second, they will be announcing their next WoW Expansion Pack (the Pandarens) and there's a video demonstration with details planned (I'm trying to get more details). It sounds like their final expansion pack will be announced at BlizzCon 2013.. Third and finally, there will be the surprise announcement of the "imminent" D3 release. (They're making it the THIRD announcement on purpose.) =]

- TITAN CONT'D: There's not going to be a Titan announcement at BlizzCon 2011. It still needs a lot of work and they're not planning on revealing any details about it just yet. I suppose they could always whip something up to show off, but it can still undergo a lot of changes between now and 2014.

Phew.. deep breaths, deep breaths..

It's not over yet though! Even though this information sounds completely unbelievable and that official documentation was pretty undeniable, I'm positive that many of our more special visitors here will claim that everything is made up. In fact, I'm expecting a TON of skepticism.. that is until these official announcements are made. =]

(For those who haven't been drinking the blue kool-aid, it's going to feel great to be completely vindicated.)

I still have a lot more to write about which I'll do over the next couple days.. I have a LOT to say about that new gold selling system. I'm also expecting a lot of heavy traffic and questions, and I really don't know what's going to happen after revealing all of this information.

Alrighty.. onto the final reveal!

In the past, Blizzard has stated that they lose money during each of their annual conventions. I think this is another thing where it's all about wording and interpretation though.

In 2009, Frank Pearce stated that "But in terms of any kind of financial gain, it actually is a loss for us." It's a marketing investment, and the amount of loss they incurred can potentially return ten times the amount in revenue. So, he must obviously mean that it's an expensive investment initially but there is financial gain at a later date.

Say a rock concert costs $5 million to put on, but they earn $20 million in ticket sales. It's still a completely honest statement to claim that the concert was a substantial loss for the organization or that "in terms of financial gain, it actually is a loss." You can still have a financial gain, but consider it a loss.. if you were expecting a 99% profit margin for example. That's a substantial loss, even though you made profit.

Blizzard never made the same comment about BlizzCon 2010 though. So, I'm curious how much they spent and made last year.

- Renting out the Anaheim Convention Center cost them $107,650 per day.
- They were given a free move-in and move-out date, but let's assume they were given an additional two days (costs 50% of one normal day). That's a total of $269,125 in rental fees for the two day event (includes electricity, network, etc.) plus moving time.
- Entertainment costs (Tenacious D being the highest) cost no more than $400,000.
- Food services, staff and equipment rental, goody bags (which hardly cost Blizzard anything), advertising costs (promotion, tickets, hanging banners/signs), and shipping of internal equipment cost about $1 million.
- Of course, I'm overestimating here on purpose. Other than the Blizzard goody bags, I personally know how much something like this really costs. In my case though, it was over 5,000 computers setup/shipped for a much larger facility (and a farther distance away), plus seat/table rentals, cabling, food services, staff, security, signage, etc. I think BlizzCon had about half that amount.

But let's say for arguments sake that all of their expenses cost TWICE the total amount instead, so $3.4 million for absolutely everything. =]

BlizzCon 2010 tickets cost $150 per person, and the virtual event cost $40 per ticket. According to RAYV, they serviced over 550,000 customers for this past BlizzCon 2010.

There were over 27,000 attendees @ $150 person = $4,050,000
There were over 550,000 virtual attendees @ $40 per person = $22,000,000

So excluding game sales, food sales, merchandising (which has previously been described as selling "hundreds of thousands of dollars"), and other marketing/promotion factors, they earned a minimum of approx. $26 million in ticket sales alone (versus $3.4 million in expenses.)

Before live streaming, I could still see BlizzCon making a small profit (when tickets cost less) but virtual tickets for live feeds were made available in 2009 when Blizzard stated that there was a financial loss. Then again, Frank Pearce described the costs as past tense..

With everything Blizzard has been bragging about over the past several months (e.g. successful WOTLK China launch, largest ever "12 million subscribers", huge number of people returning to WoW in anticipation of Cataclysm, etc.) you would expect this quarter's World of Warcraft earnings to be highly successful.

I think you'll be shocked by the results:

World of Warcraft revenues were $289 million for the 3rd quarter.

That's the exact same amount of revenue as their previous quarter.

In 2009 during the same quarter, they made $306 million (even though they have much larger subscription base in 2010).

During the 2nd Quarter (Ending June 30 2010), they released the Celestial Steed, the RAF Flying Mount, and introduced the Remote/Mobile Auction House service at the end of the quarter (so revenues for that new service actually carried over to the 3rd quarter.)

To help put things into perspective: even with ALL OF THAT FANFARE, the China launch, the "huge climb" of subscriptions, and Cataclysm coming soon, they still only made the same amount of revenue that they did during a quarter when absolutely NOTHING happened.

This is bad news indeed.

It gets much worse though. According to ActiBlizzion, they raked in $745 million in revenue with only $51 million in actual profit. That's a huge amount of expenses that cut deep into their revenue. (Although, they put a very positive spin on their Q3 results.)

World of Warcraft generated $289 million in revenue but their own expenses (staff costs, server operating costs, etc. according to Blizzard) were only about $13 million for that quarter.

So, WoW generated over $270 million in profit - but the Activision side of the family laid a gigantic smackdown on their overall profit, They must have some pretty insane expenses and I wonder what the investors feel about this? Look at it this way: if there was no "Activision", that $51 million profit would have been over $270 million instead.

World of Warcraft, by the way, is ActiBlizzion's flagship product and amounts to almost 40% of the entire company's revenue stream. You can see that Vivendi is incredibly dependent on Blizzard, but without WoW there would be a massive deficit. (See "What Vivendi Fears Most".)

* Addendum: Back in March 2010, Kotaku had an interesting article.. Activision's reports pointed out that World of Warcraft amounted to 98% of Blizzard's revenue which was up from the previous two years (97%). WoW also accounted for ~70% of Activision's net revenue. 'nuff said.

During the Q3 earnings presentation, Activision also kept bringing up Starcraft 2 and how successful the launch was. They mentioned everything else I said they would, but I was surprised they kept talking about Starcraft 2. Details had already been announced during the previous quarter and was talked about at great length at the time. But, I didn't think they were desperate enough to bring it up again ("SC2 launch! SC2 launch everybody!".. you know, even though the information was released already last quarter.)

Starcraft 2 sales figures were also very disappointing. They only sold 3 million units to date. By comparison, Red Dead Redemption (a more recent release) sold 5 million units in less than a month and it was considered a moderate success. Using that same time frame as a basis of comparison, the original Starcraft sold almost 2.5 million units (SC1 launched in 1998 plus BW units which launched 8 months later during that same year). Tiberian Sun (1999) sold 3 million units by year end, and Red Alert (1996) sold 1.5 million in under 4 weeks - and another million more over the next few months.

Keep in mind that those sales were from over a decade ago, and they're comparable to Starcraft 2 sales as they are now!

Worldwide, the video game industry revenues in 2007 were about $41.9 billion, in 2004 they were $25.4 billion, and in 1994 they were $7 billion. So, since 2001 video game revenues have almost tripled in size (2.7x actually), and even with that explosive growth, SC2 still only sold the same amount as Tiberian Sun from over 10 years ago (within the same timeframe, the only difference is that SC2 sold more on opening day).

"Professional Analysts" had initially predicated that SC2 sales would be significantly higher: 7 million sales within the first 5 months, 4 million within 3 months, 6.5 million within 5 months, 5 million in 5 months, and finally 6 million in 5 months. Apparently, Cataclysm is also supposed to sell 6 million copies on the first day, according to one of the analysts.

Keep in mind that these "professional analysts" are the best and brightest in this field. Man, were they off.

So anyhow.. overall the Q3 conference turned out just as depressing as Blizzcon 2010 - no news, no major announcements, just very boring and disappointing. If I was a major investor in the company, I would be very angry and asking a lot of questions.

* Quick Update:

One of the readers didn't understand the comparison of Blizzard's "3 million in the first month", compared to analyst predictions of "7 million sales within 5 months", etc. If you read back over past posts, this makes more sense as I've talked trends and sales figures.

What happens is that the largest amount of sales occur on the first day. And then the numbers steadily drop each follow day. SC2 for example sold 1.5M on the first day, on the next day they sold half that amount, and then 50% of that figure, and so on.

Almost all game releases follow the same trend, here's an example:

5 million during the first week (largest amount on the opening day)
800,000 during the second week
600,000 during the third week
400,000 during the fourth week
200,000 during the fifth week
150,000 during the sixth week
100,000.. 70,000.. 50,000 etc.

As of right now (4 months after release), Starcraft 2 is at about 3 million units sold. With only 1 month to go, there's a very unlikely chance that SC2 will suddenly sell 4 million units within the next few weeks. I hope that clarifies.

So, here were the big highlights of past Blizzcons.

I'm including the Worldwide Invitational as well, since it was the EU version of Blizzcon. (Note: There was no Blizzcon 2006, and WWI was cancelled in 2009 in favor of Blizzcon moving forwards.)

* Oct 2005 Blizzcon - World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade Announced

* May 2007 Worldwide Inv - Starcraft 2 Announced

* Aug 2007 Blizzcon - World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King Announced

* Jun 2008 Worldwide Inv - Diablo 3 Announced

* Oct 2008 Blizzcon - Starcraft 2 Trilogy Announced

* Aug 2009 Blizzcon - World of Warcraft: Catacylsm Announced

* Oct 2010 Blizzcon - Some guy in a red shirt asks a question

I hope this isn't going to be a trend.

What a jerk.

"I have a big announcement for everyone!"

*cheers*

"Now, you've all heard about our new Next-Gen MMO that we've been working on?"

*crazy cheers and tears of happiness*

"Well I have a little sneak preview for all of you!"

*insane cheers*

"I give to you: World of Jerseycraft Shore!"

*booooo*

"No, just kidding.. here's the real MMO exclusive preview!"

*more insane cheers*

"I'm pleased to announce.. Gleeablo!"

*booooo*

"No no.. seriously. Here's the real announcement. Are you prepared!?"

*slow clap*

"Booty Bay Watch!"

*booooo*

At this point you could distinctly hear some F-U's from the crowd. So yeah.. a lot of excitement built up only to break everyone down brutally.. way to go there Paul.

I guess he thought that he could recover that massive failure (of his terrible jokes too) by announcing "free" Diablo 3 beta keys for 1,000 lucky attendees (out of over 27,000 total mind you.) It didn't work and just further pissed most people off. In the end, the Blizzcon 2010 closing ceremony was definitely not cool.

Perhaps it was because all hope and expectations were shattered, or maybe because I set the bar so low.. but the second day was less disappointing.

Here's a summary of events and notes:

- The developers/designers at the World of Warcraft Q & A panel were visibly irritated with a lot of the questions, and most of their time was spent ridiculing their customers. It wasn't a pretty sight, and they didn't look like they wanted to be there.
- There were no intentions of actually implementing any of the suggestions. It would have been nice to give the "appearance" of listening to their customers by writing something down.. but you could tell that many of the question-givers were unhappy with their responses and the attitude of the panel.
- The Diablo 3 Q & A was actually a lot more professional, sincere, and they weren't making cheap shot comments like the WoW team.

In regards to WoW,

- Hints that the next WoW Expansion Packs would involve the Emerald Dream, and the return of old (undead) enemies. =]
- Blizzard will not be increasing character slots for World of Warcraft (will be stuck at 10).
- I liked this comment: "We have a process and we adhere to that process." It was in regards to opening up voice talents to other people rather than the same guy doing 20 voices. It was pretty much a "screw you", and confirmed what I've been writing about Blizzard's many internal processes.
- They'll be auctioning off the old Classic WoW server blades, not sure how many they're giving away yet.
- They will be modifying the racial traits and appearance of the old races (since the Worgen/Goblin aesthetics and abilities were so cool.) Other races will be getting better abilities and looks, and will probably happen ~4 months after Cataclysm release. Just like WOTLK (DK nerf after Christmas), they want as many people to buy the expansion pack as possible and then they'll do nerfs/buffs afterwards to stabilize everything.

In regards to Diablo 3,

- I liked that they admitted that they weren't sure where the game was headed yet, and that it's still being worked on. Most of the work done so far was graphics content, artwork, music, and prototype gameplay.
- They're not sure about end game content yet.
- There will be no PVP variation (like Capture the Flag, Defend/Siege, Escort, etc) - it's all just Arena/World PVP for now. No plans to make any changes to that.
- No guilds, everything will be done through Battle.net (ie, Friend lists)
- No PVP specific gear, all gear is PVE & PVP - it's the skills you select that most affect PVP.
- They're using a lot of ideas from Torchlight. There will be a "stash" that shares loot amongst all your characters.
- There will be no Arcane Sanctuary level, or any cool architectural zones that are similar.
- Diablo 3 will not support mods.

And finally, who's that "Kat Hunter" person anyways? She says she plays Alliance, but I don't think she's ever leveled past 20. She seems more suited for "The Sims" or "Dress My Boyfriend" type games.. I think she just plays WoW to dress up her characters actually.

"I don't know if I'm allowed to release this information or not, but I think there's like a quest where you can, like, punch Deathwing in the face or something."

She was referring to [The Day Deathwing Came] quest. Hardly a Blizzcon exclusive. She was just terrible the entire time, and I hope she's not back for next year.

Oh yeah, this one too: "I'm a hardcore Warcraft girl."

Fail.

The consensus seems to be that Blizzcon 2010 was the most horrible one yet and many have been voicing their extreme disappointment.

I think the highlight of the evening at Blizzcon was when a flock of seagulls flew over head.

Here's a summary of everything else that happened so far:

- Very long line-ups for panels.
- Very long line-ups for food and crappy merchandise.
- Very long line-ups to goto the washroom.
- Very long line-ups to get into other long line-ups full of sweaty nerds with poor hygiene and a strong sense of self-entitlement.
- The final Diablo 3 class was revealed, even though Blizzard promised that they had BIG news to reveal.
- Diablo 3 will have PVP (this is NEW information because apparently Diablo 2 didn't have PVP.)
- Diablo 3 will finally get a dye system, like so many other MMORPGs.
- Paid (Blizzard RayV) HD Live Streaming feed failed horribly (choppy video/sound).
- Server crashes during the SC2 Main Event (PVP Tournament between Fruitdealer and SlayersBoxer)
- Goodie bags were a big disappointment for those who didn't read the leaked internet posts revealing it's contents.
- Graphics team demonstrated art work showing that almost all new mobs were just palette-swapped older models.
- Some guy broke his leg in the dance contest while doing the Undead Male hop.
- Opening Ceremony speeches were ill prepared. Mike Morhaime (Blizzard President) and Chris Metzen (Sr. VP) demonstrated just how much they've lost touch with their players. Most of the opening speeches were just re-caps of the previous Blizzcon (trying to build up hype in the crowd) and the GEEK speech. I got the hint that the speeches were just filler because of the complete absence of new announcements this year. The crowd looked bored, they found the jokes unfunny, and the filler speeches just made the opening ceremony seem longer.

So the first day was very disappointing, nothing unexpected, and it's all old information. I'll keep my fingers crossed for Day Two (going on right now) - I'm hoping that they're just playing with us and actually have a big announcement planned for their closing ceremonies. They definitely need it at this point. It's bad.. really bad.