Hypothetical scenario. Learning from mistakes in SC2: WoL, what if Blizzard decided to make changes to their DRM for Heart of the Swarm and Legacy of the Void?

In WoL, we're already aware that an initial activation check-in is required to play offline. Even on the retail box, it said "Internet Connection Required" which concerned a lot of people before Blizzard clarified what they intended.

If HOTS were to require a persistent online connection, groups could still crack the game because all content it still included with the game. A simple bypass or authentication emulator is all that would be needed. But, what if they were to design the game a little more like Diablo 3 though?

In HOTS, they will likely still include all level design, maps, scripting, missions, and audio/video assets locally. Excluding server side achievements, player communication, and game saves, let's say that they left out one very important aspect of the game that's difficult to emulate: Server Side AI.

Many games that require persistent online connections can still be cracked, since you already have the full game, and they don't need any streaming data from the server (other than for achievements or online chat). It's just used for authentication based copy protection.

But, what if the streaming data was critical and gameplay actually depended on it? (D3 servers do map designs, random chance, loot drops, proactive (made in advance) combat calculations, movement, NPC AI, etc. SC2 would just need server side AI and everything could still be stored locally.)

Of course, this would all depend on piracy issues, loss of revenue, and research using their own internal statistics. Blizzard would be well aware of how popular the "offline versus online" versions are. And Blizzard has really been pushing the online components of the game. They'll use methods like Achievements, Paid Map Marketplaces, DLC, and emphasis on Multiplayer PVP features and services to combat piracy. Offline play might not be a big problem, and not a market that they want to capture or restrict.

This "new DRM" version of Starcraft 2 could still be "cracked" if these piracy groups were to create a server emulator that could both authenticate and feed instructions to the client for offline NPC AI gameplay.

However, the pirated version of the game wouldn't be fun, and it would take the crackers several months (maybe even years) create an acceptable AI. And that's even if they had experts in the field of AI programming. At first, they would probably just whip up stationary dummy bots and eventually some rudimentary NPC behavior. There would be no real gameplay or challenge without the real AI.

Even if they could create some intelligent AI behavior, Blizzard could create checks within the game that monitor authentic Blizzard-designed AI behaviors. :) If those checks fail, there should be random effects within the game that don't make it obvious that they're copy protection methods. For example, random crashes. If they don't know there's copy protection, they can't hunt for it.

To make matters even worse for the cracking groups; just don't announce this feature ahead of time. :) Announce that a Persistent Online Connection is required for offline play, and wait for their shock and surprise when they realize the new type of DRM employed.

The biggest downsides to this, are of course, two main points:

It requires a persistent online connection. Something Blizzard is already doing with all of their games now anyways, and you already need to be online (and therefore already have an internet connection) to be authenticated anyways. The first game is a nice stepping stone, and the new DRM could just be marketed as an "Advanced Artificial Intelligence" that's too powerful for home computers. :)

Lag concerns over AI streaming instructions. The thing is, SC2 has a strong emphasis on online multiplayer action, and you're already doing this but with real players. Your offline gameplay would be experiencing the same negligible lag that you experience with other players.. except in this case, there would be much less data being transferred, and you would only be talking to your nearest localized server. So, imagine latency on your best days and that's what you would have for offline sessions.

Crazy idea, but consider it from Blizzard's perspective. Could it force enough pirates to actually buy the game? Are the numbers feasible? Who knows.

As mentioned, here are all of the wonderfully leaked goodies (ie, the "motherload" I mentioned). Most of this is related to this year's BlizzCon and I'm sure the (wrong) heads are probably going to roll after releasing this information. =]

Keep in mind, that I'm still not done yet.. this is just the tip of the iceberg. I've saved the best for last and I'm typing as quickly as I can.

- So just to recap, I've already covered the D3 release, the (insightful) financials and subscriber figures with a quick analysis.

- DIABLO 3: The "planned" beta release date will be announced at BlizzCon 2011. The D3 beta will actually be taking place this year, but it's in such a stable state, and no problems are expected, that they expect to have it out before Christmas 2011. Sorry for the duplication, I know I already talked about this and the backup 2nd quarter date.

- DIABLO 3: There's going to be a Diablo 3 press conference before the beta begins, so sometime around August. Below are big D3 details of what will either be announced at BlizzCon or during the press conference.

- DIABLO 3: There's going to be a level cap of 60 (future expansion packs will expand the level cap by 10, it's all just like WoW), they're already planning ahead for the next exp. pack and they have in fact cut out zones, art, and skills/abilities out of the main game to be saved up for later.

- DIABLO 3: It's going to require a persistent internet connection through Battle.net. Disappointing, but I'm not surprised.

- DIABLO 3: The big shocker: Blizzard will be allowing players to buy/sell items, players and gold using an in-game system and real world currency! Seriously, I can't make this shit up. Diablo 3 will be using Blizzard's first gold selling service which they've already been building into Battle.net / Blizzard store code. They're working on a new money meter and "banking system" into Battle.net accounts, so it will probably be a storage system like PayPal for real currency that can be used to purchase games and virtual stuff. This is all being used in future games too, and possible older ones. Players will be encouraged to "stay at home, play games, make money". Because of this, they're implementing a no mods/addon policy in D3 as mentioned earlier so that this system can't be exploited (e.g. Auctioneer).

- TITAN: Just wanted to throw this little piece in here because it's related to this new gold selling system. When you see the pictures in the next post, you'll know what I mean. There will be a lot of buying and selling of virtual and real world items in Titan (tied into heavy social interaction) and this new D3 development indicates that Blizzard wants their customers getting used to this new and controversial approach. I don't want to spoil anything else.. you'll see it soon enough. =]

- WOW FIRELANDS: (Note: This is still being updated). The Firelands content patch should be available in the next couple months. A friend of mine is digging through the details right now, but I'll update this section later today. It's a little low priority as you can imagine, but he did say something about a fire-based cat form for Druids and a flaming (Blizzard Store collectible) mount. =]

- WOW EXP PACK: (Another work in progress) A little more details below, but my sources tell me that the next expansion pack will focus on the Island of Pandaria. This is no April Fool's joke, and yes, they're running out of ideas. You can already guess what race will be playable, and there's going to be a new overpowered healing class. I'm still waiting for more details from my sources and I should have some confirmation soon, but they've never steered me wrong before.

- BLIZZCON 2011: They have much more excitement planned for 2011 and there's going to be a TRIFECTA of announcements. First, there's going to be details, a trailer video (and playable demos) of their next SC2 expansion pack (HOTS). Second, they will be announcing their next WoW Expansion Pack (the Pandarens) and there's a video demonstration with details planned (I'm trying to get more details). It sounds like their final expansion pack will be announced at BlizzCon 2013.. Third and finally, there will be the surprise announcement of the "imminent" D3 release. (They're making it the THIRD announcement on purpose.) =]

- TITAN CONT'D: There's not going to be a Titan announcement at BlizzCon 2011. It still needs a lot of work and they're not planning on revealing any details about it just yet. I suppose they could always whip something up to show off, but it can still undergo a lot of changes between now and 2014.

Phew.. deep breaths, deep breaths..

It's not over yet though! Even though this information sounds completely unbelievable and that official documentation was pretty undeniable, I'm positive that many of our more special visitors here will claim that everything is made up. In fact, I'm expecting a TON of skepticism.. that is until these official announcements are made. =]

(For those who haven't been drinking the blue kool-aid, it's going to feel great to be completely vindicated.)

I still have a lot more to write about which I'll do over the next couple days.. I have a LOT to say about that new gold selling system. I'm also expecting a lot of heavy traffic and questions, and I really don't know what's going to happen after revealing all of this information.

Alrighty.. onto the final reveal!

With everything Blizzard has been bragging about over the past several months (e.g. successful WOTLK China launch, largest ever "12 million subscribers", huge number of people returning to WoW in anticipation of Cataclysm, etc.) you would expect this quarter's World of Warcraft earnings to be highly successful.

I think you'll be shocked by the results:

World of Warcraft revenues were $289 million for the 3rd quarter.

That's the exact same amount of revenue as their previous quarter.

In 2009 during the same quarter, they made $306 million (even though they have much larger subscription base in 2010).

During the 2nd Quarter (Ending June 30 2010), they released the Celestial Steed, the RAF Flying Mount, and introduced the Remote/Mobile Auction House service at the end of the quarter (so revenues for that new service actually carried over to the 3rd quarter.)

To help put things into perspective: even with ALL OF THAT FANFARE, the China launch, the "huge climb" of subscriptions, and Cataclysm coming soon, they still only made the same amount of revenue that they did during a quarter when absolutely NOTHING happened.

This is bad news indeed.

It gets much worse though. According to ActiBlizzion, they raked in $745 million in revenue with only $51 million in actual profit. That's a huge amount of expenses that cut deep into their revenue. (Although, they put a very positive spin on their Q3 results.)

World of Warcraft generated $289 million in revenue but their own expenses (staff costs, server operating costs, etc. according to Blizzard) were only about $13 million for that quarter.

So, WoW generated over $270 million in profit - but the Activision side of the family laid a gigantic smackdown on their overall profit, They must have some pretty insane expenses and I wonder what the investors feel about this? Look at it this way: if there was no "Activision", that $51 million profit would have been over $270 million instead.

World of Warcraft, by the way, is ActiBlizzion's flagship product and amounts to almost 40% of the entire company's revenue stream. You can see that Vivendi is incredibly dependent on Blizzard, but without WoW there would be a massive deficit. (See "What Vivendi Fears Most".)

* Addendum: Back in March 2010, Kotaku had an interesting article.. Activision's reports pointed out that World of Warcraft amounted to 98% of Blizzard's revenue which was up from the previous two years (97%). WoW also accounted for ~70% of Activision's net revenue. 'nuff said.

During the Q3 earnings presentation, Activision also kept bringing up Starcraft 2 and how successful the launch was. They mentioned everything else I said they would, but I was surprised they kept talking about Starcraft 2. Details had already been announced during the previous quarter and was talked about at great length at the time. But, I didn't think they were desperate enough to bring it up again ("SC2 launch! SC2 launch everybody!".. you know, even though the information was released already last quarter.)

Starcraft 2 sales figures were also very disappointing. They only sold 3 million units to date. By comparison, Red Dead Redemption (a more recent release) sold 5 million units in less than a month and it was considered a moderate success. Using that same time frame as a basis of comparison, the original Starcraft sold almost 2.5 million units (SC1 launched in 1998 plus BW units which launched 8 months later during that same year). Tiberian Sun (1999) sold 3 million units by year end, and Red Alert (1996) sold 1.5 million in under 4 weeks - and another million more over the next few months.

Keep in mind that those sales were from over a decade ago, and they're comparable to Starcraft 2 sales as they are now!

Worldwide, the video game industry revenues in 2007 were about $41.9 billion, in 2004 they were $25.4 billion, and in 1994 they were $7 billion. So, since 2001 video game revenues have almost tripled in size (2.7x actually), and even with that explosive growth, SC2 still only sold the same amount as Tiberian Sun from over 10 years ago (within the same timeframe, the only difference is that SC2 sold more on opening day).

"Professional Analysts" had initially predicated that SC2 sales would be significantly higher: 7 million sales within the first 5 months, 4 million within 3 months, 6.5 million within 5 months, 5 million in 5 months, and finally 6 million in 5 months. Apparently, Cataclysm is also supposed to sell 6 million copies on the first day, according to one of the analysts.

Keep in mind that these "professional analysts" are the best and brightest in this field. Man, were they off.

So anyhow.. overall the Q3 conference turned out just as depressing as Blizzcon 2010 - no news, no major announcements, just very boring and disappointing. If I was a major investor in the company, I would be very angry and asking a lot of questions.

* Quick Update:

One of the readers didn't understand the comparison of Blizzard's "3 million in the first month", compared to analyst predictions of "7 million sales within 5 months", etc. If you read back over past posts, this makes more sense as I've talked trends and sales figures.

What happens is that the largest amount of sales occur on the first day. And then the numbers steadily drop each follow day. SC2 for example sold 1.5M on the first day, on the next day they sold half that amount, and then 50% of that figure, and so on.

Almost all game releases follow the same trend, here's an example:

5 million during the first week (largest amount on the opening day)
800,000 during the second week
600,000 during the third week
400,000 during the fourth week
200,000 during the fifth week
150,000 during the sixth week
100,000.. 70,000.. 50,000 etc.

As of right now (4 months after release), Starcraft 2 is at about 3 million units sold. With only 1 month to go, there's a very unlikely chance that SC2 will suddenly sell 4 million units within the next few weeks. I hope that clarifies.

* Moved from my previous post "A whole lot of cheating going on.."

Blizzard's gaze is currently upon those Battle.net (SC2) hack developers, but much like Sauron's gaze - it shifts frequently. I'm expecting the same swift and decisive actions on these recent WoW cheaters in the same manner. These exploits and cheats completely DESTROY the gold markets, fairness, and ruin the enjoyment and participation of a competitive online experience (just like what Blizzard claimed in their lawsuit.)

"When users of the Hacks download, install, and use the Hacks, they copy StarCraft II copyrighted content into their computer's RAM in excess of the scope of their limited license, as set forth in the EULA and ToU, and create derivative works of StarCraft II."

"The harm to Blizzard from Defendants' conduct is immediate, massive and irreparable."

"By distributing the Hacks to the public, Defendants cause serious harm to the value of StarCraft II. Among other things, Defendants irreparably harm the ability of Blizzard's legitimate customers (i.e. those who purchase and use unmodified games) to enjoy and participate in the competitive online experience. That, in turn, causes users to grow dissatisfied with the game, lose interest in the game, and communicate that dissatisfaction, thereby resulting in lost sales of the game or 'add-on' packs and expansions thereto."

So if Blizzard actually believes this statement to be true, they'll definitely action this exploitive behavior within a week minimum. If they don't stand by their beliefs, however, they'll probably just hotfix the issue, leave the players alone, and then ban them much later when it suits their purpose.

After all, these exploits are truly game breaking and completely destroying the economy (while also ruining a legitimate player's experience.) So, I'm really interested to see how quickly they'll action this, especially after preaching about SC2 cheaters and the serious harm they have caused to the value of their games and their legitimate customers.

How long will it take to action? SC2 cheaters were banned on Oct 1 and then Blizzard launched their lawsuit by Oct 16. Will Blizzard fix this customer-impacting issue and practice what they preach, or will they instead use this as a strategy to improve revenue? It will be a good example of whether they stand by their "stated beliefs" or not.

The Global Cooldown (GDC) Hack also comes to mind. This has been exploited for not just days, weeks, or months but rather YEARS. Even in the most recent Ladder Arena Tournaments it has been estimated that almost 3/4 of all players have cheated using the GCD hack and obtained their Gladiator titles unfairly. Blizzard banned very few people and there are probably tens-of-thousands (if not hundreds-of-thousands) of players who have used the GDC hack without any fear or action by Blizzard.

It's scary to think of all of the cheaters out there. From all of the various official announcements, Blizzard has banned millions of players for online cheating. MILLIONS! I wouldn't be surprised if 50% of all online players have knowingly cheated or have exploited bugs.

On a side note,

Their new lawsuit actually worries me a bit. I don't care that Blizzard is going after cheaters and the developers of these applications (like BnetD), but I am concerned about the repercussions. If successful, it will set a legal precedent that single-player or multi-player cheats or addons/mods (even when acceptable) would be completely illegal. Virus scanners, operating systems, performance apps, tools for impaired users, etc all fit within Blizzard's classification, and it would make it very easy for them to be able to sue any software developer or users of these tools (harsh charges, prison time, etc). Blizzard probably wouldn't do that of course (bad for PR), but the case would be available for other (less savory lawyers) to reference and many people could suffer badly as a result.

The thing is, Blizzard claims that these hacks cause irreparable harm. But that's not actually true: the harm CAN be repaired by hotfixes, patches, player bans, and resetting Ladders & Seasons - all of which they already do quite frequently. All of the players cheating to get Honor Gear for example will lose it all next season.

Blizzard also knew about the map hack tool the minute it was released (they even stated that they were following it's initial development), and there have always been tons of Starcraft 1 maphacks available. Warden uses hash values to determine whether a user is running a Maphack or not, so SC2 could have easily prevented users from even launching SC2 if a hack was running. It was easily detected by Warden, and they could have done something about it right away - but instead they waited months to ban the users, allowed them to cheat, and it seemed like they wanted "damage" to occur so that they could sue the developers on purpose. They've done insta-bans before, why did they wait so long for "damages" to occur? Was it on purpose for a planned lawsuit?

Blizzard was already going to sue SC2 hackers, but then they suddenly decided to drop the charges. If I, for example, was interested only in profits from court settlements, I would wait until significant damages were incurred so that I could sue for a larger amount of money. That's what the patent trolls do too.. they wait until businesses become successful before they sue. Patent Trolls are not interested in protecting their Intellectual Property, but rather the revenue they can generate from settlements. Based on what I've seen, it seems that these lawsuits are just another alternative revenue stream for Blizzard, and there's little emphasis on actually protecting the legit players (although public statements make it look like users are their top priority). If there were concerns for the legit players, users would be prevented from even launching SC2 (or other Blizzard games) if they have a maphack running. Hash files are very unique signatures too, so Warden would not be triggered by a false positive.

With all of the balancing issues, client issues, crashes, melting video cards, account thefts, and bugs (all of which were complained about for months during PTR/beta, but were STILL released live) wouldn't Blizzard themselves actually be causing even more irreparable harm to their players?

Anyhow - I've been tracking a lot of players on my own server who have been cheating like crazy. Still no ban as of today, even though many of them have probably accumulated 15,000 to 30,000 JPs in one day without running any raids. Yeah, definitely suspicious having all brand new high-level raid gear without having run any raids.

It's funny how just the other day I was posting about how Blizzard can (and will) ban you for any reason or for no reason at all.

Coincidentally, I just learned that Blizzard banned possibly thousands of players for using Single-Player trainers and cheats.

Check out this very interesting post from Cheathappens.com.

Here's my favorite bit:

Still though, some question Blizzard’s motives. “I’m surprised they took such a blind step without doing some research into the games played,” gm0ney added. The user has been through a similar situation before, with another game -- where he suspects the company had monetary motivations for the bans, “A bunch of people’s accounts got hacked and used cheats, so we all got banned. The company already had our money so they didn’t care about our accounts.” Many people, including Cheat Happens’ Business Operations Manager and Content Editor Chris O’Rorke, believe that Blizzard is also thinking monetarily, and points to the company’s blockbuster MMO World of Warcraft as evidence. In WoW, which (unlike Starcraft 2) carries with it a monthly fee, users who are found to be cheating are only handed temporary bans as to not interrupt the monthly flow of cash coming from those users.

It echoes a lot of concerns and supporting evidence that I've been posting about. Many of Blizzard's activities seem to be motivated by monetary purposes (especially when there are so many alternative methods available that are more customer centric rather than profit centric.)

Blizzard's official announcement, however, made it sound like the users were cheating on Battle.net or during live competition with other players:

We recently took action, including suspensions and bans, on over 5,000 StarCraft II players who were in violation of the Battle.net Terms of Use for cheating and/or using hack programs while playing. In addition to undermining the spirit of fair competition that’s essential to play on Battle.net, cheating and hacking can lead to stability and performance issues with the service. Maintaining a stable, safe, and secure online-gaming experience for legitimate players is a top priority for us, and we'll be continuing to keep watch on Battle.net and take action as needed.

I especially like the part about how cheating and hacking affects the stability and performance of their Battle.net service, hence the reason for the ban even though the single-player cheats were used offline. That's some deceptive wording.

Those banned players were also questioning the "legality" of Blizzard's actions. But, Blizzard's EULA and TOU documents are worded very carefully. Players don't actually own any of their games, they are merely "renting" the service from Blizzard who can terminate said service at any time, without notice, and for absolutely no reason at all.

Note: Even though I have a 100% clean account (I know a lot about bots and exploits for example, but I've never actually used them on my WoW), I'm pretty sure my account will get banned one day. It will probably be this Blizzard employee too.. he still regularly checks the blog, but has kept quiet with his comments since I called him out on it. He'll find SOME reason to ban me. =]

The timing of this SC2 ban-wave is definitely "coincidental" for other reasons as well. It happened on the first day (Oct 1) of the new Q4. It could have been done a few days earlier, so that it was reflected in Q3.. but no, Blizzard waited until the same Quarter as when Cataclysm would be released. This specific date was actually quite a strategic move and will pad Blizzard's profits (users need to purchase new licenses) for the same Quarter when Cataclysm is released. After all, they need to show a large profit to their investors during this time.

I had talked about this before, and how Blizzard can make these types of strategic actions to pad their numbers (especially during months when they are showing lower than expected profits.)

Here's the link where I noted an "interesting trend" about how new services, content or game releases, or bans will happen in quarters when sales are hurting.

If Blizzard's profits from WOTLK China Launch are lower than expected (Q3 statements not released yet) or Blizzard is really worried about about Cataclysm sales performance, we might see another WoW (or other BNET games) banwave during the next couple months. So if the banhammer drops before mid-December or you see new services (or paid pets for example) introduced - it means that Blizzard has some very strong doubts about Cataclysm. Blizzcon revenue (whose ticket prices keep increasing mind you) should help significantly improve their profits for Q4 however.

On another related note, the reason you haven't seen any in-game advertisements yet in Starcraft 2 is because Microsoft's Massive Inc. is closing their doors. This announcement was made to their clients (Blizzard being one of them) before the Blizzard SC2 banhammer dropped and before their public announcement was made. I'm thinking that's probably a real coincidence, but the timing (ie, Oct 1) of the banwave was definitely not a coincidence in my opinion. It fits in perfectly with what I've been writing about these past few months.

Predicted last month (Link), this is also a good "sneak peek" of other upcoming virtual items that will be made available at the SC2 store. You'll also see similar virtual items in Diablo 3 no doubt.

Blizzcon 2010 attendees (online and IRL) will receive an exclusive In-Game WoW Pet and SC2 players will receive an exclusive Character Portrait (Murloc Marine) and have special unit model changes made (e.g. decals on your armor.)

If you really want these decals for your SC2 models and you can't attend - don't worry. There will be plenty of other options available when the SC2 store opens and you can have your own choice of $10-25 decals (or some other form of unique model change or modified texture). =]

Blizzard might even donate the initial proceeds to charity!

At Blizzcon 2010 (this coming October), there is also supposed to be a "HUGE" Diablo 3 announcement. Game Director Jay Wilson said, "I can say that this Blizzcon, in terms of Diablo news, will be the biggest one that we've ever had."

I really haven't been following Diablo 3 that much, and I don't have any inside contacts that are working on that specific project there so I have no idea what the announcement will be.

But, I am completely expecting to be disappointed.

Here's what I'm thinking off the top of my head (in order of most likely in the unlikely event the news will indeed be "huge"):

1. It better not be anything stupid, like introducing multiple new classes. "Huge news everyone! There are two new classes!".. "Just kidding.. there's THREE! OMG!" *cheers and yelling from the crowd and many erections*
2. Maybe #1 but also throw in some new "features" to promote, like crafting skills, a PVP arena (or other PVP related stuff similar to WoW), new spells (also similar to WoW), hired NPCs, and/or some web and mobile components that are tied into the game.
3. That D3 is ahead of schedule and we'll see it sooner than expected like next year. (They won't give an exact date though.)
4. Diablo 3 will not just release for the PC, but also the PS3 and XBOX360. Yay.
5. Diablo 3 will be an On-Demand gaming platform (improbable though, as it's too soon.)

I can't see there being any other kind of "big news". He also said that it will be the "biggest one we've ever had", so I really hope it's not just the introduction of 1 new class.. but it probably will be.

As predicted last month, Battle.net is introducing new paid services for Starcraft 2.

Namely, Paid Name Services. =]

Your first name change is free and subsequent name changes will be accompanied by a fee.

Here's the direct link to Blizzard's news announcement: Source

This is really just the beginning and there will certainly be more paid services and other forms of micro-transactions incoming for Blizzard's other new games too.

What's interesting though is that Blizzard stated that SC2 would never have any micro-transactions. And, a long time ago they also said the same thing ("Blizzard Says No Micro-Transactions for WoW") about World of Warcraft. (Source 1 & Source 2)

When I talked about Blizzard's directives to monetize Battle.net (how Blizzard doesn't always tell the "truth" and I predicted that SC2 would have paid services like name changing) it met with a little bit of hostility. =]

I allow anonymous comments on the blog so that people can easily make posts without having to create new accounts. However, there have been many comments (Blizzard fanboys and Blizzard themselves) that I've had to delete because of swearing, but mostly because they provide no insight, supporting documentation, or signs of intelligence (e.g. "ur wrong!!"). It could also be that "Blizzard indoctrination" that I've been writing about. Apparently, it was a "retarded theory" that Starcraft 2 would have paid services though (that's actually what the Blizzard employee posted.) =]

So far, it looks like that YouTube video hit ~30,000 views in a just a couple days after posting. =]
It's a classic "Blizzard Meeting" parody that's been done in the past, my favorite being the Fangtooth Paladin clip.
Other than that, on the side I've been busy collecting information on Blizzard's Next-Gen MMO. I have a few contacts at Blizzard and I've been putting together some pieces (it's not A LOT, but enough to get a good idea of what they have planned). It sounds pretty cool actually, but I'll have more details within the next few weeks I hope.

With the launch of SC2 early next week, I'm really looking forwards to one little thing that many have forgotten: Battle.net in-game ads.

I've been really curious how exactly they're going to pull it off. Of course, it probably won't be implemented right away so as not to spoil the beginner's experience - but you should see something implemented in the upcoming months.

In case you've forgotten (or weren't aware), in-game ads have been updated in Blizzard's TOU documents and Blizzard has hired Microsoft's Massive Inc. to delivery the advertisements. You'll see ads placed mostly on in-game posters, billboards, buildings, or really any texture.

DISCLOSURES; THIRD PARTY FEATURES. Massive Inc..

Blizzard's Games and the Service may incorporate technology of Massive Incorporated ("Massive"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Microsoft Corporation ("Microsoft"), that enables in-game advertising, and the display of other similar in-game objects, which are downloaded temporarily to your personal computer and replaced during online game play. As part of this process, Massive may collect some information about the game and the advertisements delivered to you, as well as standard information that is sent when your personal computer or game console connects to the Internet including your Internet protocol (IP) address. Massive will use this information to transmit and measure in-game advertising, as well as to improve the products and services of Massive and its affiliates. None of the information collected by Massive will be used to identify you. For additional details regarding Massive's in-game advertising practices, please see Massive's In-Game Advertising privacy statement at http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=122085&clcid=0x409. The trademarks and copyrighted material contained in all in-game advertising are the property of the respective owners. Portions of the Service are © 2008 Massive Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Note: A new advertising page is being created for BNet 2.0, but you can still see the old one at: http://classic.battle.net/advertising/advertising-info.aspx

When Rob Pardo first announced Blizzard's new directive (making more money from Battle.net), a lot of people were worried that he meant subscription based fees for SC2 and Diablo 3. However, Blizzard has promised that it is not their intention.

But Blizzard isn't exactly known for keeping their promises.

In World of Warcraft, for example, a lot of the promised content that was never implemented comes to mind. They also said that there would be no micro-transactions for World of Warcraft.

• 2008: "No microtransactions in World of Warcraft"
• 2009: "Blizzard Introduces Microtransactions"
• 2009: "Wow's Players Guide to microtransactions"

Regarding Diablo 3, Rob Pardo said in the interview: "Here's the way I would put it. We're definitely not looking at turning Diablo into a subscription based game."

That leaves it open to interpretation, in case they change their minds later. It's "corporate-speak", and you'll see that a lot of that same wording from gaming industry representatives:

• "We currently do not have any plans for.."
• "We're not looking at it right now.."
• "Presently, we have no plans to.."

Rockstar Games said the same about Red Dead Redemption for the PC. Guess we'll see..

Now personally, I don't think SC2 or Diablo 3 will be subscription based.. but Battle.Net might be, especially because of their new corporate direction and vision. The "free online versions" of SC2 and Diablo 3 will always be an available option, but BNet could incorporate subscription based fees for premium content and features (e.g. to make things more "convenient" for users like priority queuing or special access to events and competitions.)

Just like WoW, they're going to milk BNet for all it's worth.. virtual sales (micro-transactions), real sales (merchandising), and targeted advertising. I'm sure you'll see a Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 "store" in the future.. specialty pets, premium maps, customization of characters (paid name changes), special upgrades, or unit model changes. I can't wait to spend $25 to change my Terran unit armor from blue to red!

With the social networking features being added, it's going to significantly increase ad-targeting potential as well as increase sales (users inviting friends, promoting the game, etc.) It's funny how so many corporations are trying to cash in on each other's markets. Twitter wants to get into advertising, Google wants to be a social platform, Facebook wants to be a search engine, and Blizzard wants it all. (Blizzard's new social features are also being heavily incorporated into their "Next Gen MMO" but I'll talk about that later..)

Starcraft 2 LAN Play - Why was it really removed?

I often wonder if the monetization of BNet was the deciding factor in leaving LAN play out of Starcraft 2.

You see, when users are playing LAN Starcraft 2, there's really no purpose to being online - or should I say, that's a common belief. An internet connection might just get in the way of gameplay, so independent networks are created for small/medium LAN parties (30-50 people on one DSL will plug up the pipe and even be against ISP terms of service). Usually though, LAN parties will have internet access. But Blizzard can't take that chance! If users aren't connected to the internet, then they won't be receiving in-game advertisements.. all of that potential revenue lost.. it's completely unacceptable.

It's easier just to remove LAN play, save some money on development, and blame it on the classic piracy scapegoat.

Here was Blizzard's (Bob Colayco, Blizzard PR) official response regarding LAN play:

"We don't currently plan to support LAN play with StarCraft II, as we are building Battle.net to be the ideal destination for multiplayer gaming with StarCraft II and future Blizzard Entertainment games. While this was a difficult decision for us, we felt that moving away from LAN play and directing players to our upgraded Battle.net service was the best option to ensure a quality multiplayer experience with StarCraft II and safeguard against piracy."

Blizzard also said, "We want to make an online experience so good, that you won't want to have a LAN party." (Source)

So the reason for removing LAN play is because it doesn't fit in with the direction of BNet services (interesting.. like ad-targeting perhaps?), it will ENSURE a quality multiplayer experience, and it will safeguard against piracy.

* UPDATE: I've created a visual aid (Fair Use FTW)


But how can you have a "quality multiplayer experience" if you lose internet connectivity, are under heavy latency, Blizzard servers crash, or your ISP has issues? Can you ENSURE 100% uptime of servers and personal internet connections? Bottlenecking the users does not ensure quality.

Regarding piracy, there is no safeguard against piracy. (Unless it's a streaming game where no data is stored locally.) Every single game has been cracked and there has never been any method of "copy protection" that has actually "protected against copying." Copy protection is a myth.. there are "copy protection approaches" but that's it. In fact, removing copy protection measures actually makes it more convenient for the user and improves their gaming experience (case in point: No-CD cracks.)

If Blizzard doesn't implement a much-need feature, then someone ELSE will implement it.

Look at Kali for example, it filled a void because of a missing feature.

And then there's BNetD and PvPGN which are fully available (and open-source) BNet emulators that allow LAN play of Warcraft 2, Warcraft 3, Starcraft, Brood War, Diablo 1 and Diablo 2. There are thousands of BNet emulated servers out there providing the service that everyone wants.

Future versions (and probably alternative software) will support SC2 and Diablo 3. Blizzard knows this, there will be LAN play and they won't be the ones providing it.

History has proven that removing features to prevent piracy will actually increase piracy. Those who forget the past and all that.

(On a side note.. wouldn't it be funny if private BNet servers implemented their own in-game advertisements? WoW gold sellers would be a nice touch.)

* UPDATE:

Two months after that video was released, Bobby Kotick has now decided NOT to implement in-game advertisements into Starcraft 2. I guess they changed their minds after the massive uproar (just like mandatory Real ID).

"There was a time where we thought advertising and sponsorship was a big opportunity, but what we realized is our customers are paying $60 for a game or paying a monthly subscription fee and they don't really want to be barraged with sponsorship or advertising," Kotick explained.

They were fully intending to implement in-game ads, they had a relationship with Massive, Inc. all set, but now the plan has been cancelled, their Terms of Use has been revised again, and that new Battle.net (2.0) advertising page was pulled too. =]

Shortly after the Starcraft 2 Digital Download was made available by Blizzard, it was allegedly cracked by "vernam7" from the StarCrack team. You can check out the details on the Nibbits.com forum.


He says he can install the game and play all Single Player campaigns (cannot connect to B.Net obviously.)

Unfortunately, he's not allowing anyone access to the crack until the official release date (07-27).

This has resulted in a lot of anger and seething frustration amongst the Nibbits.com forum members, while others are applauding vernam7 for his choice not to release the crack.

Chances are that someone else will crack it before 07-27, someone always does. Although I'm not condoning this (I'm buying on 07-27 myself), please demonstrate precaution and be very careful what you download out there, there are plenty of people that will be releasing malicious code and keyloggers in the guise of a Starcraft 2 Retail Crack. Because of the mass anticipation, lots of people will be installing without confirming it's authenticity first. =]


A little background on vernam7:

He's the creator of the "sc2ALLin1 (Current Version: v9.9.0) Offline Starcraft 2 Beta Launcher/Tool". It's a user friendly launcher tool that allows you to play the SC2 beta offline, without CD-keys, load skirmish battles and watch replays. If you are in the beta, it also allows you to play WAN and downloads updates manually. He has been called a trusted member of the SC2 cracking scene by the Nibbits forum community, so there's a good chance that he has indeed cracked the digital download. Guess we'll find out on 07/27 though, or if it was all one giant crack-tease.

What's funny though, is that he really wanted to tell everyone that he cracked the Retail version but had no intention of giving it to anyone. We live in a society of instant gratification and self-entitlement, and he must have realized how the community would have reacted. It looks like he's getting a little upset and just wants everyone to drop the subject now though. =]



Forum User "Duke" writes:

For those that are waiting to pay for the retail version, here's a link to the Official Digital Download.

It's a 7GB installation package by the way.

If Blizzard was smart, though, they would have made the digital download a large (but incomplete) component of the total package and left critical files absent that would be downloaded as "updates" when the time comes. So, it would be possible to "crack the installer" to start the install the software, but it would still need to be download critical components of the package (ie, to decrypt the .MPQE files) or download key game-related files (without which, the game could not run at all.) Or maybe even a combination of both, so if the .MPQE files were decrypted, it would have been a complete waste of time since everything is time-locked at the server end anyways. (Unless they can patch the retail back together using beta files.)

Update (07/16/10)

Looks like a couple other individuals have also claimed to have cracked the Digital Download version of Starcraft 2. I'm waiting for confirmation (they say it's very simple process, but there's no automated executable at the moment.) However, they might be referring to just cracking the install package. The scene groups haven't started working on the crack yet. Meanwhile, Vernam7 is being criticized on the Nibbits & Darkblizz forums for not releasing the crack, but has provided basic instructions on what he did to crack the retail version.

Update (07/19/10)

Vernam7 has created a forum to discuss questions related to the SC2 retail crack, unfortunately most of his time seems to be spent deleting troll posts. Link: http://sc2.nibbits.com/forums/29/view/907/about-starcraft-ii-retail-crack

Yesterday, he wrote: "soon an anonymous user will upload a retail crack......."

Update (07/20/10)

Has now been two days since Vernam7 promised that an "anonymous user" would release the retail crack. If he could elaborate on what "soon" means, that might be helpful.

Update (07/22/10)

Vernam7 has been "cleaning house" on all of the Starcraft 2 forums, and removing various posts related to his crack and promises. It appears that hundreds of forum posts have suddenly gone missing. How very disappointing..


I'm guessing what probably happened was that he simply changed the appearance of the installer (.xml edit) and believed he had suddenly made progress in "cracking" the game. He got so excited, he posted his news to everyone on the forums before fulling testing. But then he realized shortly after words that he still couldn't install the game, and because he had already posted the news (and got everyone excited) and didn't want to disappoint his fans or apologize - so he simply claimed "ethical reasons" not to release the crack. Funny how someone's personal ethics are so easily malleable: it's ethical to hack one version of SC2, but not another version. =]

As Nu would say, "This is my belief! At least for now..."

Update (07/26/10)

Still no word from Vernam7, not that it matters now that the Retail DVD is out. It's really too bad - I had such high hopes that Vernam7 was indeed telling the truth about the digital download crack. But since he hasn't been able to provide a shred of evidence to back up his claim, it doesn't appear that is original statement was accurate.

Just a note to comment posters, please don't attach Retail Authentication codes or links to the new retail crack. I'm just reporting on Vernam7's claims, because it's interesting news. 

But, I already have my SC2 pre-order and didn't want any pirated material in this post. =]
Vernam7 is currently testing a means of using the SC2ALLIN1 tool with the retail DVD (ie, tricking the beta launcher into loading the retail maps.) It's not a crack for the digital download as promised, but for those that are comfortable with registry tweaks, it might make it possible to play some of the map files that come with the retail DVD. Save function may or may not work, it still requires testing - and other than that, you're pretty much just loading map files like the beta launcher so you're not really doing the proper single player campaigns. Now that the retail DVD is out though, you should see a proper crack for it from the scene groups.

Another update:

He's currently writing in the forums that there is no launcher nor any crack for the retail yet. 

He's working on creating one right now. So.. if he's starting to make a crack now (that he finally has the retail), I guess that confirms that his announcement made almost 2 weeks ago was indeed false.

Update (07/27/10)


It's not exactly clear whether this will fully unlock SC2 Digital Download or if it just allows skirmish play. However, he did mention a full automatic crack being worked on over the next few days.

Another update: The manual crack is now available on his webpage (for enGB only, the rest will be released after he gets some sleep) and there's a lot of excitement (e.g. "Ha! Told you he could do it!" etc.), but I really hope it's not the executables from the Retail DVD. He promised a crack for the Digital Download that he already had as is. Sil3nt-de4th has been posting a link to Vernam7's crack on various torrent webpages, so you'll see plenty of links to the crack in the wild.

(Funny Note: Silentdeath has been accused many times on the forums for being Vernam7's alias. Not sure if there's any truth to that though. There's always been a lot of drama on the Nibbits forum for some reason..)

So anyways, if anyone can test the manual crack and confirm, please let me know if it fully unlocked your Digital Download - allowing full Campaign play, with cinematics and Save/Load features. (Not a "Guest" account, or simply a map/skirmish launcher like the current SC2ALLIN1 Beta launcher.) I'm sure others would like to know..

Confirmed: Save/Load and other critical features are not working as of yet. He'll be working on it later.

Yet another cleanup of the forum posts is being done. All of the "bad" posts are being removed (ie, features not working, crashes, can't quit, etc.) and all of the "good" posts are being kept. Vernam7's crack is now on several torrent webpages, however some other individuals are taking credit for the crack. So, exercise caution if you download from torrent webpages, they're not the original and may contain malicious code.

Update (07/28/10)

The "final crack" has been released on the Nibbits forum (there's a link since they removed the file from the forum so that they're not hosting the file anymore). All languages are supported and save/load are supposed to work using a work-around launcher to get into the campaign missions. No word on a scene release of the Retail DVD. It's too bad the Digital Download was never actually cracked back when it first came out.. it required the boxed retail package to come out before anyone really attempted cracking the software.

Update (07/28/10)

The RELOADED crack is now out, it opens up full offline functionality of the software (e.g. save/load, quitting the game, campaigns, cutscenes, map editor, multilanguage, etc.) So, no more worries about registry tweaks and crashing/bugs from the modified beta launcher.

Summary

So, it looks like my guess has been confirmed. The original Digital Download was never actually cracked by Vernam7, he simply bypassed some install menu items by editing unencrypted .MPQ files to show a different display. Vernam7 later confirmed on the forums that he didn't actually start work on the crack until he received the real Starcraft 2 Retail Box which he pre-ordered and received the day before 07-27 (which is when he _really_ started work on the crack.) He utilized his existing beta launcher and tricked it into thinking the retail package was still the beta software, allowing him to launch campaign maps.

Another interest note. In his "I have ethics" post, he stated that he would never give out any spoilers (screenshots, etc). However, he started posting on the forums that he would Private Message select Nibbits users with spoilers. Talk about contradictory. The "select users" were obviously excited, thinking that he had provided them "secret information" from the game - but it was actually data pulled from the official SC2 Manual that was stored in the unencrypted .MPQ file and from the online SC2 Cinematics on Youtube. ALL of the ingame SC2 cinematics were available on YouTube on July 24 by the user "christos75". Let's just say there were a LOT of big spoilers. He later had to pull all of the videos because of a possible DMCA complaint.


.. and so ends the history of Vernam7's crack. A wonderful tale of a troll who kept everyone on the edge of their seats for almost 2 weeks waiting for some form of confirmation, and when a semi-functional-tricked-out-beta-launcher was finally released, it was ultimately stolen and taken credit by another individual calling his group "LIBERTY".

This (now boring) period of history shall now be forgotten in the dim recesses of time.