Here's that video from yesterday I mentioned that you should check out. It's called "Unethical Game Design", and it's a pretty good watch whether you apply it to WOW or Diablo 3.
Even Activision and Blizzard have teams of psychologists working for them that perfect methods of behavioral addiction in video games and encourage compulsive behavior. They try to avoid the label "Psychologist" though, often they're grouped into "Marketing & Promotion", "Business Intelligence", or "Statistics and Data Analytics". Internal Psychologists for employees are rare, but they would probably be grouped under "Human Resources" since they would be providing services for employees, rather than analyzing customers.
(Most large game companies do this by the way.)
You can use some of my earlier search methods to find these employees yourself if you want. For example, you'll find employees doing jobs called "Data Visualization Analysis", "Business Intelligence", "Localization Analyst" or "Statistics Analysis" and yet they don't have mathematics or business backgrounds.. but they do have Masters and Ph.D's in behavioral psychology, community/organizational psychology, consumer psychology, and experimental psychology.
They're like the fabled "Fraud Manager" positions (which were renamed to "Finance Services" or something else to cover their purpose). They don't exist. ;)
One day, Achievements won't be enough in Call of Duty and they'll need to come up with new ways to keep players addicted. (Blizzard is introducing "Pokemon" Pets for example.)
Some of you wanted to know why I have been questioning if Digital Downloads will be available for Diablo 3 or not. So, I thought I would explain this further.
At Blizzcon, it was already announced that WOW Annual Pass members will receive a Digital Copy of the game, much like Cataclysm, and they can play it immediately upon the game's launch.
However, this has only been made official for WOW Annual Pass members. There hasn't been any word on a Digital Download for everyone else yet (AFAIK).
Digital Content
Activision Blizzard has heavily been pushing Digital Content delivery and it's critical to their revenue and growth (in less than 5 years, digital revenue could overtake their retail revenue). So, it makes perfect sense for D3 (and all future games) to be available for digital pre-download.
If Digital Downloads are available to all customers, it "should" be announced pretty quickly after the release date announcement (or even on the same day.) And, the Digital Pre-Download "should" be made available at least 1 month before the official release date. (Users will also need at least 1 month to prepare their B.Net/PayPal integration as well. The B.Net Balance will be available towards the end of December and if things go well with the GRB, the B.Net PayPal integration will be announced early-mid January along with the release date.)
On A Related Note..
The new RMAH/B.Net Balance system is currently holding back the announcements of other Digital Content and Paid Services as well. After the RMAH is established, Blizzard will roll out the Map Marketplace (Arcade) where players can also sell maps or mods for "nominal fees."
So, while Diablo 3 users are selling items on the Auction House and building up a B.Net Balance account, Starcraft 2 players will also be doing the same.
After all of this money starts flowing into player's B.Net Balance accounts, that's when Blizzards strikes. :)
Examples include, but are not limited to; new Blizzard Store items, new Paid Services, a lot of new virtual items, Blizzard-made SC2 maps and content, DLC, sale promotions (cheaper games that can only be bought from the Blizzard store), classic games finally available, and eventually a full integration of Activision's suite of games. These announcements are all being saved up for a later time.
Players will be able to make money playing D3 or SC2, and buy the latest COD game from the "Activision Blizzard Store" or whatever they re-brand the Store or Battle.net as. Not only that, but all of Activision's paid services and DLC will also be made available. (They might even have transferable credits between the Activision and Blizzard "Stores", for another "nominal fee".)
Second Guessing Digital Downloads
The reason why I'm second guessing Digital Downloads for Diablo 3 is because it's a delicate and complicated bitch. Diablo 3 is their first "region free" game and they're being really quiet about it.. so there must be a reason.
I think that Blizzard wants Diablo 3 to seem like a normal region-locked game, so that players follow the same purchasing patterns.
You see.. when you buy Diablo 3, you can buy it anywhere in the world, and play it anywhere in the world. This means that Australians could purchase the Digital Copy in the US and save themselves $40 or more. Any other countries with ridiculous prices could also purchase the digital version from the cheapest country they can find. :)
There's a lot about this subject but there's no nice way of organizing it, so I'll just use bullet points for easier reading:
- If Blizzard were to make this publicly known right now, players could just cancel their pre-orders and wait for the Digital Download instead. They would be screwing over their retailers.
- Blizzard also doesn't want WOW Annual Pass members to know this, because they're already "purchasing Diablo 3" based on their own region's monthly fees. These players don't know they can get a much better deal waiting for the Digital Download. Blizzard wants to make sure as many players are locked in as possible before revealing just how cheap Diablo 3 will really be since you can purchase it from any region.
- When (if) Blizzard does announce the full Digital Pre-Download, I suspect that they'll keep it very simple, low key, and leave out certain details. They'll just say "go into your Battle.net account to see the price and order the game", but they won't remind you that it's a Region Free game, they won't share regional prices, and they'll ban discussions about how you could just create a new B.Net account in a different region to buy it.
- This is also why they restrict your purchasing methods. Even with this whole PayPal & Blizzard partnership and systems integration, have you ever asked yourself why they still haven't allowed PayPal for Blizzard Store purchases?
- I'm predicting that the new Battle.net Balance will allow a "wide variety of debit and credit cards", but they still won't let you charge it up with PayPal (under certain conditions). Even though PayPal is fully integrated with their system already. If they prevent you from using a global-friendly payment system, they can charge you extra for "regional purchases".. even though they're not actually region locked games. To bypass this, they could make a deal with PayPal and use their own systems to restrict purchases regionally (even though this isn't the systems original intention), that way PayPal can be used, but heavily restricted.
- I also suspect that you won't be able to purchase and give the gift to a friend. The digital version of Cataclysm (and other games) are transferable right now, meaning that they're not locked to a Battle.net account. Diablo 3 will probably be different on launch day.
- All of this is connected and Blizzard has thought well and hard on this. (I've only thought on it while typing this, so I can only imagine what a team of marketing professionals and seasoned businessmen have considered.)
This is why I'm curious how they're going to handle this. If Digital Downloads are available before the launch, they have to cover up a lot of things.. which is why there's a small part of me questioning DD's even though it makes sense to release them just like Cataclysm. :)
This is why I'm thinking that the Digital Download might be delayed or rushed in the sense that people won't be given the same amount of time they were for the Cataclysm DD. The idea is to give gamers no time to think about it and to act quickly (while also not being told the whole truth.)
It's much like the limited time offer for the WOW Annual Pass. Gamers rushed out to purchase the package without considering the consequences, and now forums are filling up with posts of regret.
If you want to break it all down: I'd say that 80% of me believes that the Digital Pre-Download will be available at least 1 month before the release date but details will be kept very low key, and the region-free aspects will be left out (and moderated on the forums). The other 20% of me suspects that there might be something strange about this release like a condensed "act fast" time frame. It wouldn't make logical sense (for the customer) for the Digital Download to be made available after the launch, after all. I'm certain, though, that there will be some kind of restrictions in place preventing as many users as possible from taking advantage of better pricing.
VGA is tomorrow and many people are expecting that the Diablo 3 release date will be announced. I'm positive, though, that it won't be announced even though it's a big event and three of Blizzard's founders will be attending (Michael Morhaime, Allen Adham, and Frank Pearce).
I might make jokes about that 02/23/12 potential release date too, but I honestly don't believe that even Blizzard knows when they'll be releasing the game. :) 02/23/12 could be a tentative date, but they probably have many other tentative dates planned as well.
If Blizzard doesn't even know when the release date will be, there's no way we'll ever be able to make an accurate prediction. If we knew when the announcement for the release date was and with great certainty, though, then we could probably make a reasonable estimation of the release date. Problem is, if they're not doing Digital Downloads for D3 this time, their typical lead time of two months could be shortened. Really, the only thing we can look at is why it's being delayed, what the bottleneck is, and estimate how long after the restriction is removed that they'll make the announcement.
For example, here's what I know:
Based on TOD's March-based information, it was going to be announced at Blizzcon 2011 and would have been released about 1 month before Christmas (November 24). (Including a January 17 backup date for technical or delivery issues.)
On September 22, Blizzard C-Levels rushed to Korea to deal with the fallout of the GRB approval process and their questioning about the gambling aspects of the RMAH.
On September 23, Blizzard immediately published their “Soon” Was Too Soon -- Diablo III to Arrive in Early 2012 announcement. Coincidence? :)
This meant that the surprise announcement would not be made on October 21st after all. Instead, they would have filled that announcement with another backup announcement.. it was either the Diablo 3 CE details or quite possibly the WOW Annual Pass, which they were probably saving up for much later. :)
Right after Blizzcon, even the Book of Cain was suddenly pushed back from it's November 15 release date to an undecided time. (Even though the Book of Cain was fully published, stocked, and ready to ship. Many users were completely baffled as to why it was pushed back.)
Things were pretty quiet in November, and news tidbits were sprinkling out at a very slow pace. Almost as if they were trying to postpone information on purpose.
Although on Nov 21, Rob Pardo tweeted "time to get serious and work hard on Diablo 3" possibly indicating that they were getting close to crunchtime knowing that the GRB's decision was about 1 week away.
On November 30 (or possibly even Nov 29), Blizzard finally received an update from the GRB that they were in deliberations and a decision would probably be made by January.
Suddenly, there was a huge explosion of Diablo information.
On November 30, Blizzard announced the official release date (Dec 13) for the Book of Cain following several date changes over the previous months.
On December 1 (the day after), the Global RMAH testing was announced. Blizzard also started releasing information on items and Artisans, new pages were suddenly published, and the "Day In a Life" series was expanded from 3 employees to 5 employees instead.
On December 5, Blizzard Korea also made an official update about the delays of the game and the status updates on rating approvals.
There has also been a new beta wave, and more news announcements, with even more news announcements coming over the next couple weeks. Important ones too, the ones preparing us for Diablo.
* UPDATE: As I was writing this, Blizzard just announced the "Battle.net Balance" system. This is probably the piece I've been predicting for a while now; initial steps for setting up PayPal accounts and transferring money into your new B.Net credit account. I'm not sure if this has the PayPal D3 integration part yet (I'll read it after finishing this post), but that will happen at least 1 month before the release.
* ANOTHER UPDATE (12/20/11):
New additions to the timeline.
On December 8, AUS Beta Key contest announced.
Contest started Dec 12, first invites went out Dec 18, and contest expires Dec 31.
On Fri Dec 16, Blizzard received notification from the Korean GRB that more information was needed. The hearing was schedule for Dec 21 for their answer, however it was cancelled and postponed until Blizzard could provide proper data. (They were given 7 days to reply.)
On Mon Dec 19, this news made front pages of Korean news sites.
On Mon Dec 19, a major wave of opt-in beta keys went out.
On Tue Dec 20, Blizzard announced the US-based beta key giveaway. The contest started on Dec 20, and expires Jan 23 2012. (More stalling.)
If the game gets delayed any further in January by the GRB, expect the game to be further pushed back to April, May or even June. Blizzard can easily change the "Early 2012" into a very loose definition. (And you might even start seeing some "clarifications" about it if everything is pushed back.) If the GRB comes through, and approves the game in January though, we'll hear something of a release date probably a few days before their quarterly meeting.
And it will be a crazy rush too when it happens. The announcement "should" be made on a non-typical unusual day since they won't want to wait any longer to make the announcement (I'm saying "should" because I'm assuming they're in a rush, but they probably are not.) They might also be saving up other announcements to make around the same time.
So that's pretty much it. Even Blizzard doesn't even know the release date at the moment, and they won't know until they receive a confirmation from the Korean Government. Right now, the game is in excellent shape, and they're just keeping themselves busy with balancing, tuning, and Runes. The same things that they have been discussing for months and months and no one thought it was peculiar. Using player balancing as an excuse is also very bad; Blizzard has been tuning and balancing classes in WoW for 7 years now. That would NEVER hold back a game release and it's something that will always be an ongoing activity. (I suspect it's actually a metagame to keep things changing, keep players interested in the game, and keep them trying the new OP'd classes. Hence, the new talent trees and level creep fixes.) :)
Unfortunately, the game has been pushed back so much that we all missed out on a great surprise announcement at Blizzcon, and we could have been playing the full Diablo 3 for a couple weeks by now.
The beta was only intended to be about a couple months long as well.. that's why it's so short. Are things starting to come into focus now? :)