In a recent "Pach Attack" video, Michael Pachter said that we'll ultimately see the Real Money Auction House expanded to World of Warcraft. Especially if the D3 RMAH is financially successful for Blizzard, which I'm confident it will be.
Mind you, I don't think it will be as financially successful as it could have been with the Listing Fees, but they'll still be making decent coin from the new system. Plus, you can count on Blizzard always finding new methods to encourage RMAH use and to introduce wide varieties of (highly preferable) items that players can sell on the RMAH. For example, new affixes, non-gear based items that improve your in-game experience and cool or rare aesthetic changes (like glowing wings or eyes).
You can also count on new Paid Services, and especially ones that enhance your RMAH experience. For example, a Mobile AH or a "RMAH Preferred User" plan where users pay a monthly fee to get access to better RMAH features, such as selling >10 Active Items (or maybe additional in-game fees for going over the limit).
Some users are very excited about the idea of getting a RMAH in the World of Warcraft. Others however, are completely against it, since the idea of a RMAH in any Blizzard title is considered hypocritical considering their past stance on Real Money Trading.
Diablo 3 will help them with their "acceptance issues" though.
So, I emailed Robert Bridenbecker (VP of Online Technologies) about the possibility of getting a RMAH in World of Warcraft. It was very general question, and in retrospect, I should have been more specific. (I try to keep emails short because it increases the chance of a response.)
Dec 9, 2011
Hi Rob,
What are the chances of getting a Diablo-style Real Money Auction House in World of Warcraft eventually?
I haven't played WoW for a couple years now, but the RMAH is just the kind of feature that would get me back into the game. :)
Dec 9, 2011I had forgotten about the age of World of Warcraft. They have the people to do it, but integrating a RMAH into WOW would be a very challenging process and it would be like bringing a new F2P Marketplace model into Asheron's Call. A lot of work and completely possible.. but is it worth the expense and time? Would they make enough money back to make the project worthwhile?
Retrofitting something like the RMT AH into an established game like WoW is considerably more challenging than building a game with the AH in mind.
So while it's probably unlikely, we are always evaluating areas that could further engage players. I will pass your thoughts along to the team.
Rob
After some more thought on the subject, I was thinking that a RMAH might not even be a good idea for WOW after all.
So, I guess my question was a little premature. What I should have asked was if there was a way to integrate the RMAH but in a different form?
If you think about it, even if players really liked the idea, a RMAH really isn't well suited for WOW.
Due to the fees associated with selling items (especially with their inability to use Listing Fees), the RMAH is designed for high level items. But, all of the high level items in WOW are BOP and Blizzard already has the entire game designed around Dungeons, Raids, and Fixed Loot Tables. Putting high level items on the AH would destroy Dungeons & Raids, wasting all of their content (and work), and make users bore more quickly. They need to constantly consume content, and Blizzard has been working to slow down that process to keep players engaged. So however the RMAH is designed, it can't be around items. (Something to consider for their Next Gen MMO.)
So, I had a better idea.
What if the WOW Armory also acted as a character sales market? This would allow sales of items, gold, and characters simultaneously.
Players could put their individual characters up for sale (or as an auction) for a fixed fee. Maybe even a "Make an Offer" feature for players who would like an account from someone who isn't selling their account. :)
Blizzard could collect a fixed fee of $25-$40 per sale. And, characters might typically sell for $60-500 depending on their level, gold or items.
Battle.net already has Paid Character Transfers, so this is just an enhanced version of the service. It's easy to integrate, eliminates a lot of WOW development time (web development work instead of in-game), and it's a RMT solution that works well to solve for the BOP item problem. It also allows for gold trading, and Blizzard can control the amount of gold that is being transferred through usual restrictions (like what they have already: maximum gold, level, guild removal, etc.)
Here's the follow-up email I sent to Rob, along with his response which I just received today:
Feb 15, 2012
It's me again. :)
I promise not to do this too often (if ever again), because I know you're a very busy person and I want to keep your inbox as clear as possible. So, I'll keep this as short as possible.
I realized that a RMT AH for WOW might not be a good idea after all due to the nature of weapons and gear being BOP. All of the high level items can't be sold on a RMT AH, like what can be done in D3.
Given the in-game technical challenges, I have a better solution.
What about using the Armory as a Character Sales Market? This way, you're killing two birds with one stone.
- Armory Character Page can have a Buy/Sell/Bid option. Even a "Make Offer" if the account isn't for sale.
- No RMT specifically for items or gold is needed in-game or out. These come with the player and are included in the price.
- Character is locked for 24 hours during the sale process. Total on-hand gold is visible to potential buyers (which is technically already visible through achievements).
- Systems are already in place for Character Transfers. Easier to integrate by the web development team.
- This new service can charge $25 like a typical Paid Character Transfer, while lowering normal Paid Transfers (owner to owner for $10-15.)
The benefit of doing it this way is that it's much easier on the team, can be deployed much more quickly (if the D3 RMAH is deemed a success), it will kill the blackmarket power leveling services (as well as item/gold sales), it's a much better and secure process, and by lowering service costs and introducing this new service it can bring in more players (e.g. transferring players to family members or friends.)
A new system like this can have several positive side effects for Blizzard, not only in further engaging players, but also putting a major bottleneck on blackmarket sales and with that, a cascade of other side-effects like reducing botting, power leveling and spamming. Meaning, less customer support and GM expenses.
Feb 21, 2012I really hope they seriously consider this approach.
We're always looking at new ways to engage the player base and concepts like this are some of the exciting reasons why introducing the auction house and the Armory keep us loving our jobs. Thanks for continuing to think of fun and new exciting things, as well as ways that, as a player, you'd like to see us extend our worlds.
Rob
It's impossible to create a RMAH for items, but selling gold and/or selling characters is a very viable possibility.
Restrictive enough to discourage certain players or groups, but open enough so that most players could engage in it if they want. It opens up the possibility of getting family and friends to jump right into the game with you, if they wanted to skip the long grinding process (characters can be given to friends as gifts for example.)
It would also destroy the WOW blackmarket, giving players a safe way to exchange gold, items, or "power level" characters. It will eliminate sites that sell gold, and stop spamming. Botters, of course, will increase in number so that high level accounts can be sold.. but that's the beauty of this new system; Blizzard can allow certain characters or accounts to be eligible, and not others. For example, they need to be a certain level first, they're restricted on the amount of gold they can carry, or they need to first wait a certain amount of time before they're eligible (even if a botter power leveled a new character, they still need to wait 90 days to sell it.) Power leveling groups won't take this risk, because they would have to sit on a idle account, and there's a very good chance it will be banned once the account is investigated (Blizzard has more time to investigate and more illegitimate behavior patterns to look for.)
Even if Blizzard were to create some kind of item-based RMAH, it would still be years away. They need to see the financial results of the Diablo 3 auction house, and long term advantages/disadvantages to decide whether it's worth the investment or not. It's something that would come with a new expansion pack, and they definitely wouldn't have it planned right now for Mists of Pandaria. Meaning, that the next expansion pack is more likely.. and you're looking at a 2-3 year wait at the very least.
Changing all items to BOE, though, would be very bad for the entire game dynamic, and because of the technical challenges, it's highly unlikely that they'll create a RMAH for high-end gear. Besides the Armory Character Market, however, Blizzard could alternatively sell Conquest or Valor points (or some other method where cash can be exchanged for high end items) to players. But, then Blizzard would be selling directly to the players and printing the money themselves.. something that they wouldn't do. It would have to be a "player-driven economy" so that they're not blamed for exploiting the users.
You know, it's funny.. I was just in the midst of preparing a post about the non-refundable listing fees and how Blizzard would probably play with different free listings per week (I knew that 3 wasn't going to cut it, but I figured they might experiment with 5 or 10 for various reasons). There's no point in discussing those reasons now, since I've had to scrap everything.
Blizzard just announced a MASSIVE change to the RMAH system. They've finally wised up and have removed the Listing Fee!
As you know, for several months, I've been saying that the existence of the Listing Fee turns the RMAH into a gambling metagame, but the removal of the Listing Fee would make item selling risk free and thus remove the main gambling aspect from the RMAH. Blizzard echoed the same: "This has the main advantage of allowing players to try to sell their items risk-free."
Here's the full posting in all it's glory:
In the near future, we'll be implementing several changes to the posting limits and fees related to the beta version of the Diablo III auction house. Here’s a quick summary of what’s in store:The average user won't recognize the importance of this strategic move. The Listing Fee for Blizzard was really important and a huge financial decision. The decision to remove it was equally critical. The decision to remove it would be something that they have been discussing and legally researching for weeks or months.
* Listing fee is being removed.
* Transaction fee is being increased to 1.25 Beta Bucks.
* Minimum listing price is being raised to 1.50 Beta Bucks.
* You will be limited to 10 active auctions per auction house.
With the removal of the listing fee, players will no longer need to worry about whether they’re going to run out of free listings for the week. In addition, introducing a limit on the number of active auctions means players won’t feel as though they should be trying to sell everything they find, potentially flooding the auction house with unwanted items. Under this new system, players will only pay an auction house fee if and when an item actually sells. This has the main advantage of allowing players to try to sell their items risk-free. In addition, because the transaction fee is already baked into the price when an item is listed (as part of the minimum listing price), it’s no longer possible to be in a situation where you don’t have enough Battle.net Balance to list an item, forcing you to have to charge up your Balance just to attempt a sale. We think this will be a much cleaner process for selling items and will ultimately lead to a better experience when using the currency-based auction house.
This new active-auction limit will also apply to the gold-based auction house. Because gold can be sold on the currency-based auction house, we need to ensure there are limitations on the gold auction house as well; otherwise, a player might be tempted to sell everything for gold and then sell that gold on the currency-based auction house, which isn’t supportive of the kind of thriving item-driven market we’re trying to foster. In addition, for the first time in the beta test, we're planning to have both the gold- and currency-based auction houses active at the same time when these changes go live. Of course, one of our main goals in making these changes to the beta is to test how they’ll work out, and we look forward to hearing your feedback once you have a chance to try them.
Blizzard would have made more money (a killing) from the lost sales then they ever could from successful sales. Billions of transactions.. and they would have profited every time an item was undercut or unsold. The number of successful sales will always be vastly smaller than the amount of unsold items.
You really have to wonder why they removed this, considering it's vast importance. The only explanation Kaivax had to give was that it "removed the risk" for the players. But, financially, this was a bad move for Blizzard, meaning that there had to have been other reasons that could offset "the bad." This wasn't a light decision in any way, and the only possible reason Blizzard had for making these changes was because of the gambling nature and potential legal exposure.
In my discussions with various organizations voicing my concerns about gambling within Diablo, some of them mentioned that they would be following up with Blizzard with questions.
We have all suspected that the long delays might have had something to do with the Battle.net Balance integration or the RMAH. Perhaps, the development and finance teams have been in long discussions with their internal legal departments? And now, a major change in policy is needed to avoid future legal entanglements.
I think we might finally have some answers to their long delays. And, this also opens up the opportunity to finally get the RMAH re-instated in South Korea.
This has been a huge success; it's a change I have been advocating for a long time now. I'm really excited and pleased about this announcement. :)
VGA is tomorrow and many people are expecting that the Diablo 3 release date will be announced. I'm positive, though, that it won't be announced even though it's a big event and three of Blizzard's founders will be attending (Michael Morhaime, Allen Adham, and Frank Pearce).
I might make jokes about that 02/23/12 potential release date too, but I honestly don't believe that even Blizzard knows when they'll be releasing the game. :) 02/23/12 could be a tentative date, but they probably have many other tentative dates planned as well.
If Blizzard doesn't even know when the release date will be, there's no way we'll ever be able to make an accurate prediction. If we knew when the announcement for the release date was and with great certainty, though, then we could probably make a reasonable estimation of the release date. Problem is, if they're not doing Digital Downloads for D3 this time, their typical lead time of two months could be shortened. Really, the only thing we can look at is why it's being delayed, what the bottleneck is, and estimate how long after the restriction is removed that they'll make the announcement.
For example, here's what I know:
Based on TOD's March-based information, it was going to be announced at Blizzcon 2011 and would have been released about 1 month before Christmas (November 24). (Including a January 17 backup date for technical or delivery issues.)
On September 22, Blizzard C-Levels rushed to Korea to deal with the fallout of the GRB approval process and their questioning about the gambling aspects of the RMAH.
On September 23, Blizzard immediately published their “Soon” Was Too Soon -- Diablo III to Arrive in Early 2012 announcement. Coincidence? :)
This meant that the surprise announcement would not be made on October 21st after all. Instead, they would have filled that announcement with another backup announcement.. it was either the Diablo 3 CE details or quite possibly the WOW Annual Pass, which they were probably saving up for much later. :)
Right after Blizzcon, even the Book of Cain was suddenly pushed back from it's November 15 release date to an undecided time. (Even though the Book of Cain was fully published, stocked, and ready to ship. Many users were completely baffled as to why it was pushed back.)
Things were pretty quiet in November, and news tidbits were sprinkling out at a very slow pace. Almost as if they were trying to postpone information on purpose.
Although on Nov 21, Rob Pardo tweeted "time to get serious and work hard on Diablo 3" possibly indicating that they were getting close to crunchtime knowing that the GRB's decision was about 1 week away.
On November 30 (or possibly even Nov 29), Blizzard finally received an update from the GRB that they were in deliberations and a decision would probably be made by January.
Suddenly, there was a huge explosion of Diablo information.
On November 30, Blizzard announced the official release date (Dec 13) for the Book of Cain following several date changes over the previous months.
On December 1 (the day after), the Global RMAH testing was announced. Blizzard also started releasing information on items and Artisans, new pages were suddenly published, and the "Day In a Life" series was expanded from 3 employees to 5 employees instead.
On December 5, Blizzard Korea also made an official update about the delays of the game and the status updates on rating approvals.
There has also been a new beta wave, and more news announcements, with even more news announcements coming over the next couple weeks. Important ones too, the ones preparing us for Diablo.
* UPDATE: As I was writing this, Blizzard just announced the "Battle.net Balance" system. This is probably the piece I've been predicting for a while now; initial steps for setting up PayPal accounts and transferring money into your new B.Net credit account. I'm not sure if this has the PayPal D3 integration part yet (I'll read it after finishing this post), but that will happen at least 1 month before the release.
* ANOTHER UPDATE (12/20/11):
New additions to the timeline.
On December 8, AUS Beta Key contest announced.
Contest started Dec 12, first invites went out Dec 18, and contest expires Dec 31.
On Fri Dec 16, Blizzard received notification from the Korean GRB that more information was needed. The hearing was schedule for Dec 21 for their answer, however it was cancelled and postponed until Blizzard could provide proper data. (They were given 7 days to reply.)
On Mon Dec 19, this news made front pages of Korean news sites.
On Mon Dec 19, a major wave of opt-in beta keys went out.
On Tue Dec 20, Blizzard announced the US-based beta key giveaway. The contest started on Dec 20, and expires Jan 23 2012. (More stalling.)
If the game gets delayed any further in January by the GRB, expect the game to be further pushed back to April, May or even June. Blizzard can easily change the "Early 2012" into a very loose definition. (And you might even start seeing some "clarifications" about it if everything is pushed back.) If the GRB comes through, and approves the game in January though, we'll hear something of a release date probably a few days before their quarterly meeting.
And it will be a crazy rush too when it happens. The announcement "should" be made on a non-typical unusual day since they won't want to wait any longer to make the announcement (I'm saying "should" because I'm assuming they're in a rush, but they probably are not.) They might also be saving up other announcements to make around the same time.
So that's pretty much it. Even Blizzard doesn't even know the release date at the moment, and they won't know until they receive a confirmation from the Korean Government. Right now, the game is in excellent shape, and they're just keeping themselves busy with balancing, tuning, and Runes. The same things that they have been discussing for months and months and no one thought it was peculiar. Using player balancing as an excuse is also very bad; Blizzard has been tuning and balancing classes in WoW for 7 years now. That would NEVER hold back a game release and it's something that will always be an ongoing activity. (I suspect it's actually a metagame to keep things changing, keep players interested in the game, and keep them trying the new OP'd classes. Hence, the new talent trees and level creep fixes.) :)
Unfortunately, the game has been pushed back so much that we all missed out on a great surprise announcement at Blizzcon, and we could have been playing the full Diablo 3 for a couple weeks by now.
The beta was only intended to be about a couple months long as well.. that's why it's so short. Are things starting to come into focus now? :)
Real Money Auction House
RMAH testing has finally started.
(The EU announcement is still up, but the US RMAH announcement was deleted and Bashiok also deleted his Tweet regarding the announcement.)
They're giving players fake B.Net credits (50 Beta Bucks to be exact) and not using real money, like what I had mentioned last weekend. The money can't be used to purchase Blizzard store items, of course. :)
It's too bad they didn't mention a time frame for this testing (if you hear anything, let me know.) I would love to know when it will be ending, because future D3 players also need enough time to prepare their PayPal accounts for the new system. Hard to say if the PayPal announcement will be happening during the RMAH testing, or if they'll wait until it's completed.
Blizzard is using a $0.15 Listing Fee and $0.65 Successful Sale Charge for every transaction.
"These numbers are not final and are for testing purposes only; they're subject to change."Still, this is what they're "anticipating" and these prices are very expensive. If $0.80 per sale is expected by Blizzard, apparently they're anticipating that items will easily sell for $10.00 to $50.00.
The number of free listings per week haven't been identified yet, but I'll find out soon enough. I'll update once I find out.
On this current system, minimum bids will be at least $0.90-$1.00 each, so that the users make at least $0.10-$0.20 profit. But there's also the Listing Fee to be really concerned about. $0.15 lost per failed sale is A LOT. So, it's not really worth the risk unless you sell items at a minimum of $3-$4 each.. probably more. Even $3 is really pushing it because you'll probably spend $3 in Listing Fee undercuts before it even successfully sells. There's a lot of risk and random chance involved here.
And also don't forgot about the major cuts that PayPal will be making into your profits. All of this needs to be considered very carefully by RMAH users.
I'm also really interested in finding out the Auction maximum durations. For a long time I theorized that they would want as many transactions as possible from players because of the large amounts of money they would make from every failed Listing Fee. So, I assumed that it would be much shorter than WOW. WOW offers 48, 24, and 12 hour auction lengths for example.. which are still very short for an auction, but with Diablo 3 I was thinking that they might reduce the duration on the RMAH even further.
* UPDATE:
Okay, looks like Blizzard has deleted both the EU and US versions now. All Tweets removed too.
Luckily, I made a copy. Here's the original page:
And here's the interface screenshot:
* UPDATE:And.. looks like they're back up again.
"Damnit Tim this wasn't supposed to go up until next week! Everyone already knows it by now so we might as well just do it today. Thanks again, Tim. Metzen is fucking pissed."
PayPal Preparations
Although most countries have already had their User Agreements amended to include Blizzard's new "Micropayments for Digital Goods", some specific countries haven't been amended yet.
Singapore, for example, has an upcoming UA amendment effective December 22, 2011.
For micropayments you receive up to $3.99 USD, the buyer can reverse the transaction. Anything over $4 though will be very difficult to ever get a refund.
Considering Blizzard's anticipated fee system, combined with PayPal's UA, average items will probably be selling anywhere between $2-5. That's their belief anyways, players might react differently.
I was hoping for more of a penny system, but apparently this slot machine will be taking $0.80 per pull.
Looking For Clues
This is around the time when you want to start looking for clues on their website (or other media) about potential release dates. Blizzard likes to hint at release dates, if they have them planned that is.
In the RMAH screenshot, Blizzard gave themselves $223.32 Beta Bucks for example. Ooooo.. must be a 02/23 release date! :)
[January 1st is 32 days from now (when the picture was first posted), putting it on the very first day of 2012. Plus, 223.32 = 2 / 23 / 20+12. Perhaps the release date will be announced on Dec 31st to close off the 20th Anniversary or on Jan 1st as part of the new year. That would put the game release about 2 months away, which is normal timing. Sneaky.]
The Book of Cain probably won't have anything, unless the release has been planned for a really long time. Even though the book wasn't supposed to come out until after the VGA (when more lore is leaked), apparently many people have already received review or advanced copies.
Keep your eyes peeled on the website though for any new Diablo lore items that contain numbers or dates. (They might get more tricky with numbers though, since that's what players are looking for now.)
Blizzard first hinted at the Cataclysm release date on October 4, 2010. Remember Mekkatorque predicting a 12.7% chance of the Cataclysm? (Cataclysm came out on December 7, 2010). So, a hint was made a little over 2 months before launch.
Why You Should Never Trust Retail Store Release Dates
Hey, isn't that what I said too? :)Other Investigations
Now that the RMAH testing is finally live, I wonder how much time is needed to fully test it. The Gold Auction House still has some bugs, but they've taken it offline. The beta has been going on for 3 months now, the Gold Auction House started testing 1.5 months ago.. would the RMAH only need 1 month of additional testing?
I'll have to think about it some more. I can't really see the RMAH taking 2+ months for testing, and the RMAH Testing announcement didn't make it sound like there would be any major server wipes. The success of the RMAH will determine when they make their release date announcement..
Other than that, a lot of my time has been spent on a pretty interesting investigation. Most of my time has been spent on it, and I'm still waiting for some more information to come in. So, if I don't post for a couple days, don't be surprised; I'm still working on something.
It's been over a month now since Blizzard stated that they're really just at the "fine tuning stage" of Diablo 3. We all know the game is done and Blizzard employees have been playing from beginning to end over-and-over with only a couple hints of the end-game boss (Diablo) being bugged.
All of the content is completed; voice recording, art, sound effects, assets, story, text/lore, bosses, NPCs, game engine, mechanics, animation, etc. According to Wyatt and Jay, it's really just fine tuning, character balancing, and technical systems (e.g. servers, load balancing, etc.)
Quality assurance and bug fixes will always be an ongoing process. Right now, the D3 beta is in excellent shape, and comments made by Blizzard employees paint a picture of very few bugs in the full game.
Minor bug fixes, fine tuning, and character balancing never held back their previous games though. In WOTLK & CAT, there were very few changes from beta to retail, and most of the fine tuning and character balancing happened post-retail.
You might argue that because WOTLK & CAT beta test periods lasted approx. 5 months each, that Diablo 3 should be expected to last the same. However, D3 is completely different in scope, game size, playing length, and gaming systems (consider the number of bugs in a smaller game like D3 instead of WOW). PVP is also very minor in D3, so very little balancing is required in that regard. During Blizzcon 2010, Jay Wilson expected that the D3 beta would last 6 months before release, but that was for the full Diablo 3 game. They shortened the beta into a tech demo for the most part, and changed their beta plans into a much more condensed release schedule of 2-3 months. That's what we're in now, and we're getting really close to 3 months.
The game itself is polished and ready. Really, all that's left are "technical issues" and fine tuning.
But.. if they were serious about addressing technical and server load issues, why are beta keys being released so slowly and also in so little quantities? Why had there been so little changes to the D3 beta at Blizzcon, and so few changes still? Why so much minor fine-tuning that's typically done post-release? Why the extension of the beta? Why the release pushback and official announcement which they've never done before? Why no crunch time and reallocation of employees right now to "fully" complete the game?
It's almost as if everything is moving very slowly on purpose. The development team is keeping themselves busy with minor character balancing and tweaking, and releasing keys slowly (remember that there's also high attrition due to the beta game length), as if they're trying to buy time for something else.
It can't be technical issues, like preparing or testing their servers. They've been through this so many times with all of their other releases, it's just a standard activity with no big surprises now. As well, there would be a major influx of beta keys when it's time to really stress test their servers..
During the last quarterly call, Morhaime said that RMAH testing would begin "very soon".
Could it be that it's just the RMAH holding everything back?
The game is ready, servers are ready, and they're just keeping themselves busy by making minor tweaks to the game now?
The RMAH is a really big deal for them, after all. Blizzard has been stressing the two most important aspects of Diablo 3 to their fans and investors; it's an item centric game and it has real money trading. Blizzard C-Levels even rushed to Korea to argue for it's implementation and use in SK.
I can't even begin to stress how much of a big deal it really is. It's Diablo's replacement for the (standard WOW) "subscription model" and it's also the new replacement subscription system for future games. If it's proven to be successful in Diablo 3, that is.
Could it be that they're just waiting for the RMAH to be approved? And that's when crunch time hits and they release the game shortly thereafter?
If that's the case, the game could be out today in a highly polished stated, but it would only have the Gold Auction House. The RMAH could be implemented a couple months later, but as a major content patch (or it could just be disabled until fully approved within the player's country).
Perhaps they're being questioned by various government bodies or approval agencies about the gambling aspect of the RMAH? Maybe these agencies don't even know about the gambling aspect of the RMAH, and are focusing on item drops instead. (The SK gambling board, for example, didn't know about it.)
Remember that a lot of these classification and approvals boards you're reading about on gaming sites might not care about gambling within the game, and it's other agencies that investigate these claims (after the fact). Announcements about "D3 APPROVED FOR PURCHASE IN X COUNTRY!" might not mean anything when it comes to the RMAH or gambling.
For example, when gaming blogs (like incgamers) announced that Diablo 3 had received a BBFC 15 rating. The BBFC doesn't care about gambling, the game or it's mechanics. They're film censors and they're only interested in cutscenes and gameplay animations. That's the extent of their scope.
According to the USK (Germany Ratings Board),
Payment systems have no impact on the rating decisions which are made on the basis of the Children and Young Persons Protection Act. In Germany this is a question of consumer protection and regulations around that field more than those of youth protection.According to PEGI Consumer Affairs,
The transfer of money for in-game objects is fairly new. This method, in some games referred to as micro transactions, is still finding a way to implement itself on a more regular basis. We are aware of this and also recognize the fact that Diablo III is in the forefront of this development.
Because this is still such a rare phenomenon, we can’t really classify this.
Once these games (incl. Diablo) have hit the market, we can review all these complaints and let our experts group take a look at this. This panel is composed of scientists, child psychologists and media experts, and they are the once who can make the final judgement if our system has to be changed. This is not something we can do if we feel like it. All the changes to our system have to be based on scientific proof/research that it is indeed harmful, or should be warned for.According to PEGI, there have also been complaints about the Diablo 3 gambling system. But, they will still allow the game to be approved so that they can study it's long term impacts before coming to a full decision regarding it's legality.
Knowing this, I wonder if the Korea ratings board is the only government body that Blizzard is waiting for. So, D3 is primarily being held back for a feature that's not necessary, most people have mixed feelings about, and because of one country? It's all so quiet on the media front, it's really hard to find out who is reviewing the game or who Blizzard is waiting on for approval.
So right now, it's really difficult to tell if the RMAH is the main reason for holding back the game. There are a few ways to confirm if this is the case though; timing of announcements (approvals vs release), public government reports (if you can find them, or if they take months to release), significant beta/game changes, beta key releases, technical problems, and testing of the RMAH. If the RMAH isn't tested "very soon" (e.g. 2011), for example, then we'll have more answers. :)
Defining Manipulation
Yesterday, I was talking about how easily users or news media can be easily manipulated. "Manipulated" is such a harsh word, though. I meant it in it's harshest sense yesterday, but there's also another kind of manipulation that happens all the time that most don't view as manipulation.
It's the kind of manipulation you've grown accustomed to in television, billboard, radio, or internet advertising; sex in beer ads, Photoshopped women in magazines, survival or fear inducing advertisements that get you to buy a security system or gun, mood changing music, disturbing imagery to encourage charitable donations, or anything else that can manipulate your baser instincts.
You're manipulated into what you should buy or what brands you should trust. News media manipulate you with click-bait news reports about "Africanized Killer Bees" to get you watching their stations. (I'm still waiting for those killer bees that were supposed to wipe out the US.)
We are all being manipulated through very subtle means, but it's still manipulation.
Video games companies are no different. It started out as just groups of friends making fun games and selling them. The only marketing they were concerned with were retail box aesthetics, and where to advertise. But, as businesses evolved so did marketing.
These days, video game corporations employ scientists and psychologists who are experts in market research, analytics, consumer behavior and psychology, demographics, and purchasing patterns. And all of this is backed up even further by decades of marketing and gambling research performed in other fields of business. Even smaller video game companies, if they can't afford psychologists, will use marketing techniques from research studies that have been tempered over the decades.
So, when I use the word "manipulated", I mean it within a strategic marketing context.
Blizzard's Gentle Nudging Towards Titan
Now that I've gotten that out of the way.. did you know that Blizzard fans are being manipulated as we speak?
They're being prepared for "something" and most people won't even realize the plan until after fruition (if they even find out at all). But, I've always found it fun to see the plan from the beginning, watch as it unfolds around you, and see how users are being manipulated without even knowing it.
Their Next Gen MMO has been in the works for a while now, but they also have a lot of future features and services planned for release or post. There are many scheduled activities, and they don't just happen because of "last minute brainstorms", but rather they are planned YEARS in advance. Some things need to happen first, too, before the game comes out.
We're being prepared for Titan right now, and one thing that needs to happen is gamer acceptance.
Blizzard's revenue generators are changing, and with subscriptions becoming less and less acceptable (there are more AAA games with free subscriptions, and players are beginning to realize the true, extremely cheap, operating costs of these services), Blizzard needs to create new ways to generate revenue.. and players aren't going to like them.
It's going to be one of those "removing the band aid slowly" versus "ripping it off" type approaches. :)
The Real Money Auction House
This is one of the items that should be most obvious.
Blizzard needs the RMAH system to be more accepted by their existing consumers so that they're prepared for future similar changes to new (and possibly even existing) games.
There are promises of wealth and they're going after our greed needs just like lottery tickets.
Jay Wilson, Diablo 3 Game Director, is even hoping that Diablo 3 will be "the greatest slot machine ever made." (I knew that IGN quote would come in handy one day!)
I don't believe myself that the original concept (or multiple iterations) of Diablo 3 ever had a RMAH planned.. I think it was something that came out within the past 1-2 years, and it only came about after Titan brainstorming discussions. I think it's a way to make these systems more acceptable for Blizzard games, get player's feet wet, and get them prepared for Titan.
Even if the RMAH fails (meaning that it still generates revenue, but not within their expectations), they still have something else planned that's going to be huge.
Real ID 2.0
Have you noticed that over the past year, Blizzard has really been pushing their customers to start using Facebook? They're targeting players in all of their franchises: SC2, WOW and D3.
Starting with Starcraft 2, they even integrated Facebook features within Battle.net, and are integrating Battle.net features within Facebook. They also have plans on implementing even more "Facebook-related features on Battle.net" that will "be announced at a later date." These are all just the initial steps of a larger long term plan.
They're also having major contests through Facebook now, where you MUST have a legitimate Facebook account in order to be eligible for participation.
Hmm.. that's interesting. They're pushing Blizzard gamers for Real IDentities. Wait a minute! Didn't they just try that in Battle.net? Blizzard is pushing "Real ID" again, but indirectly. This time, though, there's no fuss, no outrage, no uproar, and no one's complaining.. interesting. :)
Don't be surprised if Blizzard creates new ways to push Facebook signups and utilization even further:
- There will be heavy advertising and promotions (especially as Titan gets closer) to attract Blizzard users to Facebook.
- Gamers will be encouraged to share with friends through Facebook.
- Existing FB users can invite friends for special bonuses through FB.
- Special bonuses or features for users who already have FB accounts. Virtual items like tabards, pets, or achievements for FB users only.
- Using FB "Likes" to unlock certain FB pages, videos or images (which forces more users to sign up on FB.)
- Videos or information that are only available through FB pages.
- Sweepstakes or mini-games that can only be played on Facebook.
(Make note too how a lot of these movements started in 2010.)
How Is Real ID 2.0 Useful Though?
So Blizzard is heavily pushing Facebook use, Facebook is integrated with Battle.net, and Facebook contains real player information and details about their life, interests, profession, what they like, and what they dislike.
Real ID through Battle.net was completely unacceptable because of privacy concerns. But, Blizzard just integrated your personal Facebook details with Battle.net and you apparently found that completely acceptable.. or you just never realized the connection. :)
Remember.. FB applications and this new B.Net integration have no boundaries. Battle.net now has complete access to all of your personal details that you think are only restricted to your close friends and family. (Real ID is still active, mind you, but it's just not mandatory. It can still be used internally by Blizzard for targeting, especially if combined with other databases.)
So, what was the purpose of Real ID in the first place?
Targeted advertising.
Back in July 2010, Blizzard had planned targeted advertising within Starcraft 2. They entered into a contract with Microsoft's Massive Inc. to deliver in-game advertisements within Starcraft 2.
Coincidentally, this was also around the same time that REAL ID was announced. :)
Real ID caused a scandal and it failed, and then within about a month, Blizzard cancelled their contract and pulled the plug on their Microsoft partnership and SC2 in-game advertising.
It's almost as if in-game (targeted) advertising was dependent on the Real ID system. :)
Having a constant flow of 10-20 million players per day and access to a very sophisticated targeting advertising platform, Blizzard can reap a MASSIVE amount of profit by entering into the advertising business. (Targeted advertising is bigger than most people realize. It's where Google's immense wealth came from.)
Their first in-game advertising attempt failed due to Real ID "1.0". But, now they have Real ID 2.0, and a new monster to deliver in-game advertising.
In-Game Advertising
I'm adding this quick entry to the list of "items needing gamer acceptance."
It's not that big of a deal as most gamers are okay with it (as long as it's not obtrusive or annoying). But, with their (failed) attempt at in-game advertising within Starcraft 2, Blizzard made their intentions clear that this is something they want, it's important, and they're trying to get our "feet wet" for more future implementations.
Battle.net 3.0
While we're on the subject of getting players "feet wet", according to the most recent Blizzcon Survey, Blizzard might also allow Virtual Ticket holders to play games remotely.
This sounds a lot like Battle.net 3.0. :)
Titan is supposed to have a wider audience and more "broad appeal", and it was theorized that that the Next Gen MMO could accomplish this through a gaming on demand service where it could be played on a large number of platforms:
It would fit in very well with their Battle.net services and would definitely work well with their new "Next Gen" MMO. Maybe the "Next Gen" bit isn't just about new consoles, but rather opening up their games for many platforms regardless of age? With live streaming services, you don't have to worry too much about processor speed, video card performance, memory, or harddrive capacity.If it's feasible, gamers could have high end graphics but on low end PCs.
Blizzard would just need to test it out, see if it's possible, how much of a reach the streaming service has (distance limitations), and acceptable performance. Blizzcon 2012 might be a good time for some initial testing. :)
How This All Relates To Titan
It's not just Titan though. Other Blizzard games could have any number of these features implemented, depending on how successful they are (and other factors).
Since Blizzard now has a new Real ID system, it will be perfect for targeted advertising within future games. But, it's not possible within all genres of video games. Advertisements could be used in Diablo chat rooms, for example, and on Starcraft 2 in-game billboards. But, they're not appropriate within the Diablo world itself.
A certain type of game would be needed to accommodate in-game ads. Something that matches our real world more closely; a modern world, with virtual billboards, radio, and TV. And that brings us to Titan.
Titan is rumored to be similar to Second Life, it will have a lot of characters (NPCs) within it, there are a large number of environments, and it might have more of a real (or modern) world feel to it. If so, a world like this would be perfect for in-game ads and linking real world items with in-game purchases or vice versa. (RL ads to get you buying virtual items, and in-game ads getting you to buy RL items.)
A lot of this can be done through a Real Money Auction House, which you can bet will be implemented in Titan if the D3 testing is successful. Titan would be perfect for a large quantity of items, homes, or furnishings that can be created or sold. Personally, I don't think there will be houses or land for sale, but I do think there will be a large number of vanity items that can be crafted or sold for real money.
(Even if there are multiple environments, like the historical and ancient cities that have been hinted at, advertising would still be possible whether they're at a certain hub, meeting place, or even in these environments depending on suitability.)
The Titan RMAH might also go under some (currently planned) changes.. for example, Blizzard selling virtual items like how the TF2 store is run. Blizzard doesn't want to offend any players right now by selling items directly themselves, so they're getting users familiar with the new system first before moving into their next phase. (Much like "Real ID 2.0", they're playing it cool and doing it smart).
Right now, they're targeting existing Blizzard customers and getting more of them to start using Facebook. Eventually, they'll target FB users (who are not Blizzard customers or MMO gamers) to become Blizzard regulars.
Of course, all of this could just be something as simple as using socialization to increase recognition, chatter, and new consumers. The failure of mandatory Real ID and the subsequent cancellation of their in-game advertisements could have been a sheer coincidence. But, I always found it strange that they wanted Real ID in the first place.. their reasoning never made any sense.
All of their pushes have been Facebook specific as well. When it comes to "pushing users", they're ignoring all of the other social platforms and advertising mediums. When was the last Twitter-specific contest? Twitter is just used to link back to Facebook.
They've talked a lot of Battle.net monetization and finding new ways to generate revenue. Subscription based games are slowly going away, with advertising or taking cuts from real money transactions making a great replacement.
I think it's all part of a greater plan. Like Blizzard said, Titan is their most ambitious project ever. And all of these systems or strategies are very easy to implement, they're practical, and they're highly lucrative.
It's just going to take a few years of nudging players into the right direction and adjusting their personal level of acceptance. You can call it "manipulation" if you want.. the description is apt.
tl;dr; Blizzard slowly entering into the advertising business. Titan will be subscription free, have more real life connections, have real money transactions, and have in-game advertising.
I was very disappointed about the Diablo 3 Panels and Q&A since they didn't reveal any new information. They just went over the same stuff that has been announced previously. But, apparently there was a press gathering with Robert Bridenbecker after Blizzcon and there's some interesting new information.
Here's the video, but the audio is a little poor:
A summary of the most interesting information from that meeting:
- Blizzard's plan for the RMAH is that you have a credit card on your account. If your listing doesn't sell, your credit card is charged for the listing fee.
- The other option they are debating is arrears and they're thinking that for every failed Listing Fee, you start building up a negative balance which would need to get paid out after a certain time.
- They want to keep the flat rates as small as possible. He kept reiterating small tiny fees. Guess we'll see when the time comes. Based on Blizzard comments over the past few months and this recent reiteration, I'm thinking $0.05 or less, but if it's more than $0.25 that's way too much. The Blizzard team is apparently guessing that most items will sell for "sub $10". So a small 5 cent fixed fee should match this. He said they won't start messing around with the listing fees either to manipulate the market.
- It sounds like the plan is to have players work for 3-5 months to maybe earn up to $50, and then they use that money to buy new games, DLC, paid services, or subscriptions. It will be quite a shock if people actually make a lot of money from it, and the anticipation is that most player profits will go back into Blizzard.
- Here's something interesting. When talking about market manipulation and someone cornering the market (e.g. they keep buying out the same item and jacking up the price by 10-20%), he said that it won't be possible in Diablo 3 like it was in WOW. (This goes back to the deterministic nature of WOW versus indeterministic nature of Diablo 3.) Basically, he said that due to the indeterministic nature of Diablo 3, supply will always be greater than demand. Eeek! This also confirms what I have been talking about for some time.. it's going to drive down prices, but increase Listing Fees substantially (and more failed Listing Fees) meaning more revenue for Blizzard.
- He talked about security measures; they're working on a SMS service where automated messages can be sent directly to your mobile in the case of abnormal security behavior on your account. If you're being hacked, you're notified right away.. rather than finding out when you attempt to login later.
- "When you buy Diablo 3, you're buying Diablo 3." You can play it anywhere in the world, it's not region locked. Only the RMAH is region based.
- It's "just Diablo 3 now", no EN/EU/GB/etc versions. You choose the server, pick the language, and you can play anywhere in the world. No barriers, no RMAH restrictions, no currency restrictions, no region locking, etc. (Except that there is a different RMAH in each region and you are locked into your own currency, so the conversions are made for you when you cash out.)
- I guess this means Australian players can buy D3 from the US Website for $50 and start playing right away?
- Blizzard is the middleman for all RMAH transactions, you can utilize any currency you want, and if players want to they can even engage in speculative markets and currency trading. Robert said it would be perfectly acceptable.
- I guess this means that gold farmers will be migrating from server to server looking for the best market and currency conversion. (Latency permitting of course.) :)
* UPDATE:
- Some people are saying that (from this video), you will have a different B.Net credit account in each region, and any money you earn can only be used in that region's B.Net store. Which is very strange that you can't use it for another B.Net store, considering there is only one "Battle.net". You can cash out to your main PayPal account though, and that's when the conversion takes place. But, I think they picked that up from the "Brazilian dollars" conversation that started at the 13 minute mark. He's just talking about conversion though, it's still Battle.net credit (but in "Brazilian dollars") and I think he's still saying it can be used for transactions everywhere else. For example, you make a ton of money in the European RMAH, but you can use that money (after conversion) to buy stuff off the US Battle.net Store.
- The audio is very crappy, and there are some parts that I don't understand. If you jump to the 11:03 mark, he says everyone can participate in the Gold Auction House anywhere in the world, but the RMAH is specific to the region. He must mean that certain regions won't have the RMAH (like what has already been announced).. although it first sounded like he's saying the Gold Auction House is "universal", but there are separate RMAH's on each server.
- UPDATE: Basically the way it works is when you first sign up to the game, you're "locked" into a specific region's RMAH. You can still play the game in any region, and you can use the Gold Auction House of any region. But, you're "locked" into a single RMAH (the one you first selected, which will typically be your own region that you're physically located.) You can "unlock" your RMAH region, though, by providing proof of relocation (like a scanned photo ID).
* The big news is that the Beta Opt In rules have suddenly been changed. Previously, it was anyone who owned an Active Battle.net account which required any Blizzard game. Now, it's only anyone with an active World of Warcraft or Starcraft 2 account.
So, for those veteran accounts who have been playing Diablo 2 for 10 years.. they have no chance of getting into the Diablo 3 beta. Starcraft 2 players do, though.
The claim was later refuted, reconfirmed, refuted, reconfirmed, and then refuted again. These were all done by CMs or GMs.. so who really knows what internal rules are really being followed.
I've been told that there are other unofficial rules too.. like unsupported video cards won't make the beta, certain system specs, and "flagged accounts".
What's really interesting about this sudden change in the beta rules, is that it comes 1 week after I wrote about this exact same strategy. I've always known that the blog was monitored by Blizzard, and thankfully Daeity had hooked me up with some tools to track that sort of thing. There's a Blizzard system, for example, that has been "pinging" the blog twice a day at pre programmed intervals for quite a while now. It "watches" front page and new posts only. Just a very strange coincidence that after that blogspot about B.Net accounts, they changed the rules exactly for that situation. :)
* If you're interested in a Diablo 3 Beta "Offline Crack", there's a server emulator in the works. You can get all the information you want here. It's very early stages and something marginally playable is still several weeks away.
* More news from Rockstar, as expected. The release date for Max Payne 3 has been announced.. once that's out of the way, should free up some room for a RDR PC port announcement.
* Blizzard announced 6 games within the next 3 years at the recent Citigroup conference. These games are: Diablo 3, D3 X1, SC2 X2, SC2, X3, WOW X4, and WOW X5. This is all very very old news though and practically everyone already knew all about this. Not sure why this was suddenly "news" on so many gaming sites.
* I was going to add a bunch of stuff about illegal online gambling in this post, but it got so huge that I had to create a brand new post for it. I'll put it up later when it's done.
* I was thinking about writing an article on the "New" Diablo 3 Blackmarket that will emerge. You know, potential changes to the blackmarket now that Blizzard is running their own ingame Cash Auction House.
For example; because RMAH will not be available to Hardcore players, that's one market where items will be available. Because of the rarity and risk involved for farmers, the value of items will be substantially more expensive than Blizzard's RMAH. The size of the Hardcore community is a factor at play here too.
Third party websites will also sell the cheaper items (but in larger volume) with no listing fees. The big seller here won't necessarily be high end gear, but probably items or mats instead.
But, what other kind of stuff? Maybe Hardcore character sales? Maybe even the same stuff sold on the RMAH, but without the listing fee. It all depends on the listing fee, but I'll be pretty disappointed if it's more than $0.20 per item.
I really like the new RMAH, mostly because it's new and different for such a popular franchise, and it creates new forms of competition and tactics in the industry. I'm looking forwards to seeing how the market will evolve, and how Blizzard will combat competitors.
Yes, the cash auction house is optional. But it's not a very good option.
Rob Pardo's Diablo 3 presentation during the Activision Blizzard Analyst Day event shared some insight into their philosophy surrounding the Real Money Auction House.
Here's what he said (jump to the 2h 15min mark) during his presentation:
"We really thought carefully about how we were going to design this."Earlier in his presentation, he also talked about how the Real Money Auction House is a trading game where players can obtain really hard to get items. He said that there's a difference between World of Warcraft (an "Achiever Economy" where all bosses drop the same items and can be obtained by any player) and Diablo 3 (where it's instead "Merchant Item" based and no amount of skill or time can give you the random rolls you want.) So in contrast to WoW, the really hard to get items will only be available on the Auction House.
"..the reason we're doing a listing fee in the first place is because we don't want every item possible to end up on the Auction House."
"..there's going to be lots and lots of items in the game that players aren't just going to find or going to be valuable enough to spend real world money on. We really feel that it's important that the (Cash) Auction House is the place you go for valuable items."
"The things up on the (Cash) Auction house are the things players should be willing to spend money on. We feel that the listing fee really achieves that."
And then they have the free listings per week. They want players to use the Cash Auction House, and Rob said that the free listing is a great way to get players interested in the real money service. Paraphrased: "They're unsure about using it.. then BOOM, you get a really powerful item. I know this is a valuable item, so I'll try and put it on the (cash) auction house for the first time. If that item sells, it's a great way to get people introduced to the (cash) auction house." You can hear his exact example at the approximate 2:15:51 mark.
Both Gold and Cash is shared amongst all of your characters. That's right; your shared stash isn't needed to share Gold, all of the Gold you're carrying is automatically shared with all of your characters. Their intention is clear when it comes to trading and item sales.
Basically;
* Blizzard really wants you to use the Cash Auction House. There are incentives in place to get you using it regularly.
* There are so many items out there and random drops from bosses, that the items you want will be practically impossible to get on your own. You HAVE to rely on the Cash Auction House to obtain it.
* The Cash Auction House is where you go for valuable items. The Garbage.. I mean, Gold Auction House is where you go for everything else.
* You have to use Real Money to get the really powerful Diablo 3 items. (That's the plan.)
If you're happy with the minimum, then you'll be very be very pleased using the Gold Auction House. But if you want valuable items and the best gear, then you'll have to use the Cash Auction House.
The game is all about character development and improving upon yourself, and human nature drives us to create uber powerful characters and compete. So, this system is practically forcing players into the Cash Auction House. It's the only way to advance.
I don't feel one way or another about this system, I just think it will be interesting to see how players will react to it when it's live.. but I just don't want you surprised when you find out the items you need to advance will only be available for real money.
This is a continuation of the RMT discussion, but on the subject of botting.
Remember that the decision to implement RMT into Diablo 3 was not an easy one. Blizzard, not Activision, makes these decisions and they're not made lightly. They're thoroughly researched, well thought out, considered, and all angles investigated.
EVP Rob Pardo said that they were "thinking about the trading game for a while" and one of the reasons for doing this was because of the changing landscape of games, the different business models, and it "benefits the players, provides more entertainment, is more fun".
So, you can assume that Blizzard already knows the following;
* In black marketing trading, the two traders are known to each other. The trade is made knowingly, meaning that both accounts are susceptible to banning.
* The Cash Auction House is anonymous.
* If a player buys a new character on the CAH that was botted, they have plausible deniability. Meaning that the receiver of the botted character is free of disciplinary action.
* If a player buys an item gained through exploitation, the same. (Item duping, speed hacking, and teleporting will happen.)
* These are all immediate and final sales. The innocent receiver cannot be banned, only the guilty seller.
Under the old system, buyers and sellers alike work through blackmarket websites and there are systems in place to monitor shady dealings like transferring ownership of B.NET accounts.
Under the new system, there is only a monitoring system for catching the guilty seller. A cheater could sell 40 accounts before they get caught, but Blizzard can't just reclaim those accounts since most of them could have been in use for several months after purchase. The same is true for duped items or loot gained through exploitation.. several days or weeks after the sale, Blizzard can't just repossess them or rollback the account to weeks past. It wouldn't be fair.
Repossession or rollbacks of ill-gotten gains could only happen fairly if it happens within hours or a couple days at most. And that's after a full investigation is completed.
Blizzard would know all of this.. ie, that people will be "legitimately" playing botted-accounts or using items gained through exploitation.
So really, this is a method of almost legitimizing botting. :) Sales are immediate and final, and the buyer of the botted account or exploited gold can't be punished. It's a long process before the seller is caught, so the legit gold selling system and enforced anonymity permits this to happen and Blizzard should know this.
Not only that, but the new Auction House system makes botting much easier. In World of Warcraft, botters would need to travel back to cities to sell items or manually list on the Auction House. This is no longer the case. Players can now open the auction house interface from anywhere in the game to sell items. That is a huge advantage for botters.. I can't even begin to describe how amazingly great this is for botters and farmers. So far, things are getting much easier for botting and not more difficult.
On a side note, I've seen that a lot of people are defending the implementation of RMT by saying that "it's already happened." They forget, though, that it was a blackmarket and there's a ton of high risk involved from both the seller and Blizzard. Not only that, but it was only used by a small percentage of players. It's like going from 5% of subscribers on the blackmarket to 80% of subscribers in the new legit system. There's no comparison here, and you can't say "well, it's already been happening and players pay to win already.."
Personally speaking, I'm not for or against RMT officially, I'm just detailing what's happening and what will happen. I'll be playing the RMT system though for entertainment purposes.. I can see the negatives and positives, and I'll just personally weigh accordingly as I experiment with it.
Picture the following scenario.
* You need real money to be able to play this game.
* While playing the game, you don't actually use real money but rather special "chips".
* You pay to play the game, but it can be taken away from you at any time. The people who own the game can tell you to stop playing due to cheating or for no reason at all.
* It's a game of chance, and your level of winnings or losses are random.
* You have the option to cash out and convert your chips back into real money.
* The owner of the game provides complimentary items (comps) to encourage players to continue playing this game of chance.
* Whether you win or lose, the owner of the game will always make a profit from you.
Am I describing a slot machine, a game of roulette, a table game, or Diablo 3?
(And yes, Blizzard is waiving the listing portion of the fee for a limited number of transactions... this feels just like a casino comping players to keep them gambling or to experiment first to get hooked.)
Blizzard has been banning players for getting angry about the RMT AH, but I found this one interesting Blizzard response regarding the RMT AH.
Blizzard claims that Diablo 3 and its RMT is a free market, there is no gambling, there are no risks associated with the RMT system, lottery tickets in RL can only be bought if you exchange money directly for them, and that their current RMT system has been thoroughly researched and approved by their legal department.
But, this is what is really happening:
* Diablo 3 has listing fees, auction cuts, and cash out fees.
* Auction cuts and cash out fees are not related to chance. They only happen after a successful transaction.
* The listing fee, however, is a gamble every time you post an item. There is a risk that you might not sell the item.
* If your auction does not sell, you lose money. This is a game of chance, there are high stakes in volume, and you are gambling with your money.
* The game is all about volume. Blizzard stated that Diablo 3 was "item centric". There are high stakes and losses associated with high volumes of transactions.
* Blizzard is making most of their profits from listing fees.
* If there was no listing fee, there would be no gambling or "games of chance".
* These aren't 1-10 day EBay auctions or 24-48 hour WoW auctions. These auctions are very short. The shorter the time span; the less likely chance of finding a successful buyer. When you only have 30 minute (or 60 max) auction intervals, you will be hard-pressed to win.
* You are also paying higher listing charges for longer auction periods.
* Auction Houses are regional so there will be millions of players that can be involved in random undercutting of items leading to the house (Blizzard) winning. Item drops are randomly created, meaning that the AH posts are also random in nature.
* It's not a free market when the supply and demand is controlled by a governing body.
* The retailers example is also a poor analogy. When you buy milk from a store, the retailer doesn't charge you a fixed fee, and then check to see if there's a random chance of milk being available because milk is delivered randomly.
Because of the listing fee, it's a game of chance every time and Blizzard has created a brilliant method of indirect gambling to avoid licensing.
By changing loot tables and random chance algorithms, Blizzard can alter volume. Volume or rarity = more listings = gambling by the players (but this is not a gamble for the house) = more listing fee revenue (the house always wins)
Selling an item is a game of chance, there's high risk involved, there's monetary loss involved due to random chance, and it's gambling. If the Auction House is changed so that there is only a cut after a successful auction, then it is not gambling. On a related note, EBay charges insertion fees, however the fee is refunded if your item does not sell.
Even if you're dealing with pennies per transaction, it's still gambling. In the case of Diablo, though, you're dealing with greater volumes of transactions. The game is "item centric" after all with massive quantities of loot dropping from the heavens with random real money value.
I must have missed this, but apparently the new Diablo 3 RMT Auction House transactions "will be managed by a yet-to-be-announced third party vendor." [LINK]
During their other interviews with GamePlanet, Blizzard spokespersons were very careful not to mention the word PayPal when speaking about RMT.. but they were perfectly casual about comparing their new system to EBay. In the other news releases from August 1st I don't recall them mentioning PayPal either.
What do you think?
If they are getting into bed with PayPal, it would certainly explain how they got PayPal to hunt down and kill all of the RMT competition out there. There must have been something more to that story. Can't wait to see who the third party vendor will be, but my money is on PayPal. :)
Transferred from paxdora.blogspot.com [LINK]
Original Post Date: 8/2/11 (with new edits and additions below)
After years and years of anti-RMT posts, idealism, the lawsuits against RMT companies, and official statements regarding the negative impacts of RMT.. Blizzard is now joining them because the money is just too much to pass up.
We're all hypocrits, but it's even worse for those who situate themselves on high horses.
Blizzard even made an official "We would like to make a clear statement here.." anti-gold post at one point.. it was online for 3 years, but then promptly removed before making the D3 announcement; http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/info/basics/antigold.html
So, I've attached it here for your enjoyment. Oh, and this too [LINK]
* Blizzard says RMT has "detrimental effects they have on all players, including their own customers, as well as on the game environment as a whole."
* Blizzard says players who participate in RMT are supporting spamming, botting, and keylogging.
* Blizzard says that these activities diminish the gameplay experience for everyone.
* Blizzard says RMT encourages and increases botting, spamming, and account hacking.
* Blizzard says that people don't realize "the large impact it has on the game economy".
* Blizzard says RMT is unethical.
* Blizzard has even gone as far to say that RMT is "illegal".
* Blizzard considers it exploitative activity as it abuses the economy.
* Blizzard says RMT exchange "negatively impacts" the game environment by "detracting from the value of the in-game economy."
* Blizzard says RMT devalues everything in-game and it ruins the economy.
* Blizzard says as a result it also ruins the gaming experience for everyone.
* Blizzard stated that they're not interested in RMT.
* Blizzard has always had a firm opposition to RMT, but justifies the use of "cosmetic RMT" (that is, pet sales, texture changes, mounts, etc.) because it doesn't impact fairness of the game.
By the way, if you're a gamer, please don't use the word legal or illegal when referring to RMT. It's very embarrassing when I see forum or blog comments that say "Blizzard is now making it LEGAL to sell virtual items!"
There's a huge difference between internal company policies and actual law.
Here are some other related links for your enjoyment.
* "The Lawbringer: Legal gold sales? Not a Blizzard's chance in Hell" [LINK]
* "Blizzard Won't Support Legit RMT Service" [LINK]
* "You won't buy gold in World of Warcraft from Blizzard. You just won't." [LINK]
* Blizzard lawsuit v. RMT [LINK]
* "Blizzard has rules for their RMT.. they won't charge for any item that means anything in game -- cosmetic items and looks are fair game, but actual gear or "integral services" (whatever that means exactly) is a no for them." [LINK]
* Rob Pardo: No Microtransactions in D3, only WOW. [LINK]
* For other interesting stuff, just do a Google search for "Blizzard will never" and "Blizzard would never", etc. :)