News from Ichigo about the SK approval. Another source here and here. This was an update received by Korean news sites yesterday (Dec 28).

The GRB decision has been pushed to either "Mon, Jan 2" or "Wed, Jan 4". (They say Monday, but write the 4th.)

Apparently, there are still concerns about the Battle.net Balance gambling aspect of the RMAH, even though they cut out the cash-out function from the SK version. It's still on target for first week of January, but it appears that their deliberations were postponed again.

Will provide more updates if I can find more sources. Really, this doesn't change much though since we already knew that the first week of January was "decision week".

* UPDATE:

One of our readers understands Korean (Thanks Anonymous!), and it says "January 4th" so the decision should be made by Wednesday of next week.

It appears that Blizzard might be sick and tired of waiting, especially since players are getting really frustrated and many are now aware of what's really holding back the release.

According to sources here and here, instead of submitting documents describing the RMAH process, they're just going to cut out the real money "cashing-out" part of the Korean version instead. They want to add it later as a patch, if they can obtain approval.

(At first I thought these were just opinion pieces, but they have quotes from Blizzard and a GRB official confirming these new developments.)

Blizzard was contacted on Dec 16 and asked to provide more information about the RMAH. The original hearing for the Korean GRB was slated for Dec 21, but it was cancelled and postponed to a later date. Blizzard was given 7 days to file their additional information.

As I've noted many times in the past, they have to be really careful about what they submit so this doesn't come as a surprise at all. They've been dancing around the issue, and trying to show that "random loot" is the only gambling related activity in the game. However, the RMAH operates just like a slot machine and there is real monetary risk involved. Given only 7 days to prepare information, it was a wise decision to take more time to prepare their best documentation.. they might even rethink the RMAH process for SK specifically.

It appears that Blizzard submitted their amended request and it was received by the GRB on either Dec 21 or most likely Dec 22 (it was reported in the Korean news on Dec 23). However, they're still leaving in the RMAH but for "Battle Coins" (B.Net Bucks) only, so there won't be a way to cash out with real money. It's kind of sneaky, since it's still worth real money.. but it does demonstrate just how important it is to get Korea on board with the RMAH. They could have just cut it out altogether so that it can finally be released for all other geographies.

This is still a re-submission for approval though, and the GRB needs to review their new approach to the RMAH. The new RMAH process still actually involves random chance and possibility of losing money.. unless the Korean RMAH does not charge for Listing Fees. They're expecting to have a final decision made by the first week of January.

Coincidentally, on the day of or right after that resubmission for approval, Bashiok tweeted:

"#Diablo15 year anniversary is in 9 days! (We have a little something fun planned for the week after.) How are you going to celebrate?"

They still haven't received the GRB confirmation though, but it's expected "the week after" Diablo's anniversary.. which is the first week of January. He says "a little something fun planned", meaning that it's not supposed to be anything important like a release date but it's left open for interpretation. Strange that they're not announcing anything on the anniversary date, but rather sometime during the week AFTER. :)

If you weren't aware, Bashiok also confirmed that the GRB rating was indeed a facet responsible for their planned D3 global launch. He wrote the following, and then immediately deleted it, even though there was no reason to delete it except for the GRB comment:

#226 - 2011/12/21 05:37:00 AM

I don't know what translation you're reading but no where has it been stated the release of the game on a whole is delayed because of a GRB rating. Might it delay the game in Korea? I suppose no one knows, but we still have some time since the game is not finished. We're playing internal builds, the entire game, we'd know if it was. I'd know.

I hate it when they try to hide this stuff. I understand why though; players would be really angry if Blizzard did admit to Korea being the reason for long delays.

Some interesting new information from Bashiok.

A player asked about the possibility of the RMAH being used to buy and re-sell items from the Gold Auction House of other regions.

For example, you "lock-in" your RMAH to NA, your primary characters are on the NA servers, but you create a new character in the EU servers, buy items from their Gold Auction House, and then put up for sale on the Real Money Auction House (which is US-based.)

Bashiok made it very clear that this is not possible:

Characters are still region based. Just like Diablo II. You could log in to USWest, or USEast, or Europe, or Asia, but you had different characters on each. There's no possibility of trading between regions.

He also went on to say:

Each region is compartmentalized. Character's on one region cannot play with characters on another region. Similarly, each region has its own gold and currency-based auction houses. Only characters on a region can use that region's auction houses (and of course a restriction from the currency-based if it's not your home region).

Here is the original source of all of these citations, although the top link is probably your best source now because Blizzard has gone through and deleted many of Bashiok's (and user's) posts regarding the Korea/RMAH Gambling delay being the primary reason for the D3 global launch.

What Bashiok (Community Manager) wrote, though, directly contradicts with what Robert Bridenbecker (VP of Online Technologies) said in an interview. More details about that interview here and here.

Robert said that you're locked into your own RMAH, but you can still access the Gold Auction Houses of whatever region you're logged in to (even if it's not your own). When you pull up the RMAH window, while logged into another region, you only see the RMAH from your home country.

"If you say you're from the US, we're going to treat you like you're a US player and wherever you connect in the world, we will enforce you as a US player. If you say you're from Korea, the same thing applies."

Bashiok, however, is saying that if you login to other realms you can only use their Gold Auction Houses. Which means you can only pull up your RMAH menu while on your home region, and it simple won't be an available feature if you're logged into another region.

So, which one is it?

The SK Game Ratings Board was originally planning on having a hearing this Dec 21st, but it's been pushed back due to the lack of data and documents provided by Blizzard.

The GRB review process started on December 1st (or possibly the day before), and according the article, after 16 days of reviews and investigations, they had asked Blizzard for additional information.

So, Blizzard Korea was probably contacted this past Friday (Dec 16) for the information and media organizations found out about it today (Monday).

Kim Jong Il died shortly after hearing the news about the Diablo 3 delay. He had been experiencing significant stress over the past several weeks, due to the multiple release delays, causing great mental and physical strain and finally accumulating into a fatal heart attack after hearing the devastating news of another delay. Kim Jong Il was planning on creating a Barbarian, because he felt that the class was the most overpowered and godlike.

And also, coincidentally, Dec 16 is the same day that Bashiok finally addressed the delay concerns by being very ambiguous, not denying anything, and just confirming that there is a delay and to be patient.

It's unfortunate that Blizzard was not fully prepared for this review considering the seriousness of the issue. They explained that they weren't expecting this to happen because they've never had problems like this before from their other (non-RMAH) games. I wouldn't be surprised, though, if certain details were left out.. like the metagame gambling nature of RMAH item selling. :)

Based on what I could translate, it appears that the "additional material requested period" is 7 days from now, at which point they'll undergo their investigation process again. So, it's still a couple weeks away.

So, on the bright side.. it looks like they were making some pretty good progress, and the decision was closer than we think (this year.) Unfortunately, because Blizzard did not provide enough information, it's been delayed, pushing it all back to probably the original early-mid January expectation.

So much for a Dec 31st announcement.. I guess it'll just be a major beta invite, pictures, and game information.

Blizzard (Italy) Confirmation Regarding Delay

Here's a very interesting post in the Italian (Battle.net EU) forums.

Basically, the users are talking about the delay of the game due to the RMAH, and a government in another region causing the delay of the game.

Then, Blue posts the following (translated):

"I can tell you that immediately after the delay of the game, it was decided that we no longer speak about possible release dates until we actually have an exact date with 99.99% confidence.

When we do finally announce the release date, you can be confident that it won't be delayed any longer. (Subject to natural disasters, emergencies, blah blah blah.)"

So, Blizzard has just confirmed what I've been writing about. They have no idea what the release date is yet, that it was put up in the air after the unexpected delay, and they don't know what the release date is because it's based on the decision of another government in another region questioning the RMAH. :)

* UPDATE:

Some more related information has been found thanks to our loyal readers. Here's the specific post, and it's full of interesting (new) information. I really like this Blue. :)

If you go through all of the blue posts in this thread, Zhydaris basically says that because of the Diablo 3 delay, the development team has been given more time to add new features and make changes that weren't supposed to be done until after retail.

Before Gold, there's another very important date, which they internally call the "Content Lock" stage. Simply put, that's the day that they finalize the list of features that are present in the game and complete before Gold.

Because the release date has been moved to an undetermined date, the development team can now add additional features like the Simple Tooltips (which were supposed to be added post-retail), and they can also add new features, new items, updated item affixes, balance skills, change graphics of items, etc. But, all of the changes they're making right now were supposed to be done after launch. :)

Having "more time now means having more content", even though the game was finished.

I talked about this before actually.. like how most player balancing, quest fixes, items, and tuning were done after the WoW Expansion Pack releases, and very little changes were made during the beta.

There's another really fun quote in there too. They are aiming for a global release (like what I speculated) and Zhydaris said that although older Blizzard games (region-locked) may have had regional legal issues, they did not impact other regions. But, he/she never denied that the current Diablo 3 (region-free) is being delayed due to one region. It was actually just like "Tom Chilton's denial"; "Well.. if you look at traditionally (or historically) how we've handled that.." Brilliant. :)

Top Posts on the Diablo Forums

On the major forums (especially the US), you'll notice that Blizzard has been addressing many concerns and questions on the forums.

They'll spend a lot of time defending the new Simple Tool Tips feature, they'll address questions about the Book of Cain delay, they'll talk about how "diablo looks like 2008 game", they get involved in troll posts, they'll keep talking about inferno being soloable, they'll talk to people who are refusing to use the RMAH (on strike), they'll talk about the RMAH or AH bugs, and they'll even address mass layoff rumors on the forums.

But, for some reason they're avoiding the TOP POSTS on the forum that ask if Diablo 3 is being delayed because of Korea.

They'll talk about everything else, even the RMAH, but they're not touching the subject of Korea approvals holding back the game. It's what they're not doing that interests me. :)

Oh, by the way, there are no current plans for Daily Quests in Diablo 3. Something that blue just posted.

Interplay VS Bethesda Progress

The Interplay vs Bethesda trial (fight over rights to Fallout) started yesterday morning, and the trial is expected to last 2 to 2 1/2 days. So, keep watching the headlines on DuckAndCover and we'll probably find out more about the battle either today or tomorrow.

I'm really excited about this. I've been leaning towards Interplay during this battle, but only because I still remember Interplay as the "Brian Fargo Interplay". Unfortunately, it's now the "Caen Brothers Interplay", and knowing their poor decision making skills, I'm inclined to believe that Interplay has just been performing a whole Dog & Pony Show. I think that their real intention is to hold the Fallout IP hostage after winning their legal battle, so that they can sell it back to Bethesda at a substantially higher price (or even sell to a competitor who might be interested in a post-apocalyptic MMO.) :)

I think they'll also sell off all of their other highly valuable IPs too. The next couple days will be very exciting indeed.

Why You No PayPal Blizzard??

Blizzard post regarding payment methods for Digital Downloads, confirming what I wrote the other day. (Thanks Ichigo!)

BlackReaper4: "PAYPAL,Paypal...EU can't use paypal to buy CD keys add subscription etc"

Nakatoir: "We are always looking into new payment methods to use, if a certain payment method is not available in a particular region, there is a reason for it. If we are able to make a certain payment method available, then we will try our best to make it so."

This is their standard response. And they say they're always looking for new payment methods.. and yet, they haven't changed in years. Regarding the "reason for it" (e.g. not using PayPal, even though they're partnered that their systems are fully integrated together), it's because they want players to be restricted to their own regions to buy games where they pay the most. Even for region-free games. So, I'm not going to be shocked if Diablo 3 can't be sent as a gift during the opening month, even though every other game can.

Blizzard/NetEase Rumors

Apparently, there's a rumor going around that Blizzard might be ditching NetEase (whose contract will be expiring next May) and they're shopping around for another service provider in China. (Thanks again Ichigo!)

Tencent, although very big and may have offered a handsome deal to Blizzard, has a lot of competing games, their own (and possible problematic for Blizzard) QQ Coins currency system, and current Chinese players prefer NetEase, so they're not the most ideal candidate. This rumor could just be a power play by Blizzard to update their NetEase contract for a better deal on Blizzard's end. :)

Blog Direction

Just a heads up that when Diablo 3 finally goes live, the blog will be taking a slightly different direction. I intend to focus on practical applications within Diablo 3.. specifically gold making strategies, even though they'll be rather difficult to make. I might take it in some interesting directions though that others might not have considered.. at least I'm hoping.

I'll still have some speculative or theoretical discussions about Titan and their future paid services though. Maybe even some progression into Guild Wars 2 once the game is finally out.

Diablo's New Anniversary

December 31st is Blizzard's "new" Diablo Anniversary, so you can expect something nice to happen that day. Apparently, it was just a coincidence that there was a ton of "Diablo News on November 30". November 30th just happened to coincide with Blizzard receiving a major update from the GRB. Still.. a very nice and convenient coincidence. (Those happen a lot here.) :)

The Blizzard_ANZ Twitter contest also ends on December 31, 2011 at which point the beta key winners will be announced. By then, the D3 beta would have been running for 4 months, and will be running at least another month (for a total of 5) for those beta key winners.

Jay Wilson originally expected that the Diablo 3 beta would run for 6 months ("six months before we release", quoted often by other blogs).. but that was for the FULL game. They changed it into the much shortened tech demo (a fraction of Act 1) that we see now, and planned on a 2-3 month release date so that they could release before Christmas. That's just how excellent the progress on D3 was, why they admitted to their intention for a Christmas release (the game was done), and how their plans were ruined due to the unexpected Korea GRB troubles.

This beta key contest is just another way to keep players busy and occupied until things get settled. (If things are approved by Jan 10th, they'll have a short beta period.) :)

* UPDATE: Bashiok later tweeted that they would have the anniversary activity during the following week, instead of on the anniversary day.

Here's that video from yesterday I mentioned that you should check out. It's called "Unethical Game Design", and it's a pretty good watch whether you apply it to WOW or Diablo 3.



Even Activision and Blizzard have teams of psychologists working for them that perfect methods of behavioral addiction in video games and encourage compulsive behavior. They try to avoid the label "Psychologist" though, often they're grouped into "Marketing & Promotion", "Business Intelligence", or "Statistics and Data Analytics". Internal Psychologists for employees are rare, but they would probably be grouped under "Human Resources" since they would be providing services for employees, rather than analyzing customers.

(Most large game companies do this by the way.)

You can use some of my earlier search methods to find these employees yourself if you want. For example, you'll find employees doing jobs called "Data Visualization Analysis", "Business Intelligence", "Localization Analyst" or "Statistics Analysis" and yet they don't have mathematics or business backgrounds.. but they do have Masters and Ph.D's in behavioral psychology, community/organizational psychology, consumer psychology, and experimental psychology.

They're like the fabled "Fraud Manager" positions (which were renamed to "Finance Services" or something else to cover their purpose). They don't exist. ;)

One day, Achievements won't be enough in Call of Duty and they'll need to come up with new ways to keep players addicted. (Blizzard is introducing "Pokemon" Pets for example.)

Some of you wanted to know why I have been questioning if Digital Downloads will be available for Diablo 3 or not. So, I thought I would explain this further.

At Blizzcon, it was already announced that WOW Annual Pass members will receive a Digital Copy of the game, much like Cataclysm, and they can play it immediately upon the game's launch.

However, this has only been made official for WOW Annual Pass members. There hasn't been any word on a Digital Download for everyone else yet (AFAIK).

Digital Content

Activision Blizzard has heavily been pushing Digital Content delivery and it's critical to their revenue and growth (in less than 5 years, digital revenue could overtake their retail revenue). So, it makes perfect sense for D3 (and all future games) to be available for digital pre-download.

If Digital Downloads are available to all customers, it "should" be announced pretty quickly after the release date announcement (or even on the same day.) And, the Digital Pre-Download "should" be made available at least 1 month before the official release date. (Users will also need at least 1 month to prepare their B.Net/PayPal integration as well. The B.Net Balance will be available towards the end of December and if things go well with the GRB, the B.Net PayPal integration will be announced early-mid January along with the release date.)

On A Related Note..

The new RMAH/B.Net Balance system is currently holding back the announcements of other Digital Content and Paid Services as well. After the RMAH is established, Blizzard will roll out the Map Marketplace (Arcade) where players can also sell maps or mods for "nominal fees."

So, while Diablo 3 users are selling items on the Auction House and building up a B.Net Balance account, Starcraft 2 players will also be doing the same.

After all of this money starts flowing into player's B.Net Balance accounts, that's when Blizzards strikes. :)

Examples include, but are not limited to; new Blizzard Store items, new Paid Services, a lot of new virtual items, Blizzard-made SC2 maps and content, DLC, sale promotions (cheaper games that can only be bought from the Blizzard store), classic games finally available, and eventually a full integration of Activision's suite of games. These announcements are all being saved up for a later time.

Players will be able to make money playing D3 or SC2, and buy the latest COD game from the "Activision Blizzard Store" or whatever they re-brand the Store or Battle.net as. Not only that, but all of Activision's paid services and DLC will also be made available. (They might even have transferable credits between the Activision and Blizzard "Stores", for another "nominal fee".)

Second Guessing Digital Downloads

The reason why I'm second guessing Digital Downloads for Diablo 3 is because it's a delicate and complicated bitch. Diablo 3 is their first "region free" game and they're being really quiet about it.. so there must be a reason.

I think that Blizzard wants Diablo 3 to seem like a normal region-locked game, so that players follow the same purchasing patterns.

You see.. when you buy Diablo 3, you can buy it anywhere in the world, and play it anywhere in the world. This means that Australians could purchase the Digital Copy in the US and save themselves $40 or more. Any other countries with ridiculous prices could also purchase the digital version from the cheapest country they can find. :)

There's a lot about this subject but there's no nice way of organizing it, so I'll just use bullet points for easier reading:

• If Blizzard were to make this publicly known right now, players could just cancel their pre-orders and wait for the Digital Download instead. They would be screwing over their retailers.
• Blizzard also doesn't want WOW Annual Pass members to know this, because they're already "purchasing Diablo 3" based on their own region's monthly fees. These players don't know they can get a much better deal waiting for the Digital Download. Blizzard wants to make sure as many players are locked in as possible before revealing just how cheap Diablo 3 will really be since you can purchase it from any region.
• When (if) Blizzard does announce the full Digital Pre-Download, I suspect that they'll keep it very simple, low key, and leave out certain details. They'll just say "go into your Battle.net account to see the price and order the game", but they won't remind you that it's a Region Free game, they won't share regional prices, and they'll ban discussions about how you could just create a new B.Net account in a different region to buy it.
• This is also why they restrict your purchasing methods. Even with this whole PayPal & Blizzard partnership and systems integration, have you ever asked yourself why they still haven't allowed PayPal for Blizzard Store purchases?
• I'm predicting that the new Battle.net Balance will allow a "wide variety of debit and credit cards", but they still won't let you charge it up with PayPal (under certain conditions). Even though PayPal is fully integrated with their system already. If they prevent you from using a global-friendly payment system, they can charge you extra for "regional purchases".. even though they're not actually region locked games. To bypass this, they could make a deal with PayPal and use their own systems to restrict purchases regionally (even though this isn't the systems original intention), that way PayPal can be used, but heavily restricted.
• I also suspect that you won't be able to purchase and give the gift to a friend. The digital version of Cataclysm (and other games) are transferable right now, meaning that they're not locked to a Battle.net account. Diablo 3 will probably be different on launch day.
• All of this is connected and Blizzard has thought well and hard on this. (I've only thought on it while typing this, so I can only imagine what a team of marketing professionals and seasoned businessmen have considered.)

I suspect that they're going to make it as hard for you as possible to take advantage of this region-free special bonus. There will be restrictions in place for an unrestricted game (yes, that's weird and unfair if true). And, I suspect they won't let people really know about the "region free" aspects of the game until sometime AFTER the launch date.

This is why I'm curious how they're going to handle this. If Digital Downloads are available before the launch, they have to cover up a lot of things.. which is why there's a small part of me questioning DD's even though it makes sense to release them just like Cataclysm. :)

This is why I'm thinking that the Digital Download might be delayed or rushed in the sense that people won't be given the same amount of time they were for the Cataclysm DD. The idea is to give gamers no time to think about it and to act quickly (while also not being told the whole truth.)

It's much like the limited time offer for the WOW Annual Pass. Gamers rushed out to purchase the package without considering the consequences, and now forums are filling up with posts of regret.

If you want to break it all down: I'd say that 80% of me believes that the Digital Pre-Download will be available at least 1 month before the release date but details will be kept very low key, and the region-free aspects will be left out (and moderated on the forums). The other 20% of me suspects that there might be something strange about this release like a condensed "act fast" time frame. It wouldn't make logical sense (for the customer) for the Digital Download to be made available after the launch, after all. I'm certain, though, that there will be some kind of restrictions in place preventing as many users as possible from taking advantage of better pricing.

VGA is tomorrow and many people are expecting that the Diablo 3 release date will be announced. I'm positive, though, that it won't be announced even though it's a big event and three of Blizzard's founders will be attending (Michael Morhaime, Allen Adham, and Frank Pearce).

I might make jokes about that 02/23/12 potential release date too, but I honestly don't believe that even Blizzard knows when they'll be releasing the game. :) 02/23/12 could be a tentative date, but they probably have many other tentative dates planned as well.

If Blizzard doesn't even know when the release date will be, there's no way we'll ever be able to make an accurate prediction. If we knew when the announcement for the release date was and with great certainty, though, then we could probably make a reasonable estimation of the release date. Problem is, if they're not doing Digital Downloads for D3 this time, their typical lead time of two months could be shortened. Really, the only thing we can look at is why it's being delayed, what the bottleneck is, and estimate how long after the restriction is removed that they'll make the announcement.

For example, here's what I know:

Based on TOD's March-based information, it was going to be announced at Blizzcon 2011 and would have been released about 1 month before Christmas (November 24). (Including a January 17 backup date for technical or delivery issues.)

On September 22, Blizzard C-Levels rushed to Korea to deal with the fallout of the GRB approval process and their questioning about the gambling aspects of the RMAH.

On September 23, Blizzard immediately published their “Soon” Was Too Soon -- Diablo III to Arrive in Early 2012 announcement. Coincidence? :)

This meant that the surprise announcement would not be made on October 21st after all. Instead, they would have filled that announcement with another backup announcement.. it was either the Diablo 3 CE details or quite possibly the WOW Annual Pass, which they were probably saving up for much later. :)

Right after Blizzcon, even the Book of Cain was suddenly pushed back from it's November 15 release date to an undecided time. (Even though the Book of Cain was fully published, stocked, and ready to ship. Many users were completely baffled as to why it was pushed back.)

Things were pretty quiet in November, and news tidbits were sprinkling out at a very slow pace. Almost as if they were trying to postpone information on purpose.

Although on Nov 21, Rob Pardo tweeted "time to get serious and work hard on Diablo 3" possibly indicating that they were getting close to crunchtime knowing that the GRB's decision was about 1 week away.

On November 30 (or possibly even Nov 29), Blizzard finally received an update from the GRB that they were in deliberations and a decision would probably be made by January.

Suddenly, there was a huge explosion of Diablo information.

On November 30, Blizzard announced the official release date (Dec 13) for the Book of Cain following several date changes over the previous months.

On December 1 (the day after), the Global RMAH testing was announced. Blizzard also started releasing information on items and Artisans, new pages were suddenly published, and the "Day In a Life" series was expanded from 3 employees to 5 employees instead.

On December 5, Blizzard Korea also made an official update about the delays of the game and the status updates on rating approvals.

There has also been a new beta wave, and more news announcements, with even more news announcements coming over the next couple weeks. Important ones too, the ones preparing us for Diablo.

* UPDATE: As I was writing this, Blizzard just announced the "Battle.net Balance" system. This is probably the piece I've been predicting for a while now; initial steps for setting up PayPal accounts and transferring money into your new B.Net credit account. I'm not sure if this has the PayPal D3 integration part yet (I'll read it after finishing this post), but that will happen at least 1 month before the release.

* ANOTHER UPDATE (12/20/11):

New additions to the timeline.

On December 8, AUS Beta Key contest announced.

Contest started Dec 12, first invites went out Dec 18, and contest expires Dec 31.

On Fri Dec 16, Blizzard received notification from the Korean GRB that more information was needed. The hearing was schedule for Dec 21 for their answer, however it was cancelled and postponed until Blizzard could provide proper data. (They were given 7 days to reply.)

On Mon Dec 19, this news made front pages of Korean news sites.

On Mon Dec 19, a major wave of opt-in beta keys went out.

On Tue Dec 20, Blizzard announced the US-based beta key giveaway. The contest started on Dec 20, and expires Jan 23 2012. (More stalling.)

If the game gets delayed any further in January by the GRB, expect the game to be further pushed back to April, May or even June. Blizzard can easily change the "Early 2012" into a very loose definition. (And you might even start seeing some "clarifications" about it if everything is pushed back.) If the GRB comes through, and approves the game in January though, we'll hear something of a release date probably a few days before their quarterly meeting.

And it will be a crazy rush too when it happens. The announcement "should" be made on a non-typical unusual day since they won't want to wait any longer to make the announcement (I'm saying "should" because I'm assuming they're in a rush, but they probably are not.) They might also be saving up other announcements to make around the same time.

So that's pretty much it. Even Blizzard doesn't even know the release date at the moment, and they won't know until they receive a confirmation from the Korean Government. Right now, the game is in excellent shape, and they're just keeping themselves busy with balancing, tuning, and Runes. The same things that they have been discussing for months and months and no one thought it was peculiar. Using player balancing as an excuse is also very bad; Blizzard has been tuning and balancing classes in WoW for 7 years now. That would NEVER hold back a game release and it's something that will always be an ongoing activity. (I suspect it's actually a metagame to keep things changing, keep players interested in the game, and keep them trying the new OP'd classes. Hence, the new talent trees and level creep fixes.) :)

Unfortunately, the game has been pushed back so much that we all missed out on a great surprise announcement at Blizzcon, and we could have been playing the full Diablo 3 for a couple weeks by now.

The beta was only intended to be about a couple months long as well.. that's why it's so short. Are things starting to come into focus now? :)

Here's a news item from December 3rd regarding the Korean D3 approval. (Thanks Ichigo.)

Based on my rough translation:

• It appears that the GRB had asked Blizzard Korea for private testing of Diablo 3.
• The GRB confirmed with this news site that certain results from December 2nd were completed, and now they're moving onto the deliberation stage. This confirms Blizzard's post when they had said they "were in deliberations." So that post from a couple days ago were indeed because some progress had been made.
• The GRB officer said that generally it takes two weeks for deliberation, but due to the subject matter in Diablo 3, there's "greater resistance" in reviewing this game so it could take a little bit more.
• I think it says the results of the deliberations are expected to be released in January.
• They did confirm, though, that Diablo 3 was/is being held up due to this private testing by the GRB and that Blizzard Korea applied for consideration using the Global version (which includes cash auctions.)

So, apparently some real progress has been made, and it wasn't just a coincidence that Blizzard Korea released that news announcement, and also not a coincidence that Blizzard HQ started posting all of those Diablo and Blizzard Anniversary related news items this week.

(I posted a theory about news release schedules, and how Blizzard uses them to keep players busy with information until the final release. They'll drag out news posts if they need to extend the release date of games for example, which is why they increased the "Day In A Life" posts from 3 to 5 people, and dragged out all of the D3 information. It also explains why there was a sudden explosion of D3 info releases and game related updates within the past week.)

Blizzard is fully expecting it to be approved (probably by January), and it appears that the Korea launch was (and is) indeed holding back the Global release. As long as there are no problems, I'm expecting that Diablo 3 will be a simultaneous global launch.

The only question now, though, is if Blizzard is going to wait for the results of the deliberation before making the release date announcement. They did, after all, say that they were fully expecting it to be approved with no issue. :)

Apparently, incgamers borrowed some more original content from this blog. Check out their latest post here. This time though, it was an entire copy & paste job from here. :)

Linking the source sure would be nice, rather than just saying "it came from some random internet user". Plus, their readers should be aware that it was an inexperienced translation that I did myself and not an official translation by Blizzard. :)

Azzure doesn't believe the game is delayed due to the RMAH in Korea because it's only one regional server and should not affect any other regions.

However, I wanted to clear this up.

This is the belief of many, and it's the strongest argument being used by forum users; i.e. Blizzard wouldn't just hold back all regions if they could simply turn off the RMAH in Korea or just not release the game there. (This is one item I forgot to mention in the "What's Really Holding Diablo 3 Back" post, but it's so old now, I'm not going to go back and update it when I can just post my thoughts here.)

Before I get started, here's an older post and video with Robert Bridenbecker that might help explain the real issues.

You see.. even though there are regional servers and there is a RMAH for each region, the users themselves are not restricted as to what region they play in or what RMAH they use.

It's not something simple as disabling the RMAH in each region. It's a player issue, and if Korea is not approved, this actually becomes a user account logistical nightmare for both Blizzard and PayPal.

Diablo 3 will be Blizzard's first "region free" game. As Robert explained, "When you buy Diablo 3, you're buying Diablo 3." You can play it anywhere in the world, it's not region locked, and players can select any server they want, any language they want, and play on that region's RMAH. There are no barriers or currency restrictions. Whichever region you play on, you're locked into that region's currency. That's it. :)

(* UPDATE: Just a clarification. When you first install the game, you're "locked" into a specific region's RMAH but you can change it later if you can provide "proof" that you moved.. like a scanned photo ID. You can still play in any region and also use any Gold Auction House, but you're "locked" with the one RMAH that you selected first.)

It's all very cool actually. It means that Australian players can buy D3 from the US Website for a reasonable price and can start playing right away on their own region based servers. (You know.. now that I'm talking about it, this is assuming that Digital Downloads will be made available. I wonder if Blizzard won't have DD's this time around for D3 because of the price point difference in other countries?)

Do you see where this could become a major problem?

Even if the RMAH is disabled in Korea (and they only have a Gold Auction House), what's to stop Korean players from just participating in the Real Money Auction Houses in other regions?

Blizzard needs to have advanced security precautions in place to prevent Korean citizens from accessing ALL RMAH's on all regions. And, what about Americans traveling abroad? They still need to adhere to local laws too! :)

Not just Americans, but I'm talking about ANY nationality that travels to Korea. If they're physically in Korea, they must obey their laws and regulations. And the problem here is that any visitors can use VPN services that makes it look like they're connecting from another country, even though they're physically in Korea.

This... is... HUGE.

Are you beginning to see just how critical it is that they receive approval in Korea? They need approvals in EVERY country too.

Not only that, but there are other factors to consider:

1. If the game is rejected, Blizzard's best option is to simply not allow Korean users to play the game. This makes playing the game illegal in the country, and since Blizzard would not be supporting it, they can't be held liable for Korean players playing the game. It would be the government's responsibility to crack down on it.

2. They would need to make a new D3 game for Korea specifically, pushing back their release date by several months. It would be a region locked version of D3, with Korean-only servers. A different version of D3 that all other countries would be using.

3. PayPal also needs to manage all of this. They need to watch bank accounts, incoming/outgoing transactions to make sure they're not from Korea, monitor visitors logs.. all to make sure D3 isn't being illegally used in Korea. Korean players could easily RMAH-lock themselves onto an outside region. It doesn't matter, though, if they're Korean but located outside of Korea.

4. How can you prevent Korean players or minors from playing the game? Account information can easily be faked (in China, many players just use their relative's ID cards to register so that they avoid the age restrictions). Korean players can simply say they're based in Russia or China, and use any of thousands of proxy/VPN services available.

5. Blizzard wants a simultaneous launch in all regions with the same features. Diablo 3 is the same game everywhere, as Robert explained. You can play it anywhere in the world.

6. There might be other things happening at the same time that coincide with the launch that are important. For example, everyone setting up PayPal accounts in advance or Digital Downloads.

7. They want all players to start using the RMAH immediately upon launch. It's critical to the future success of the game, they want players to start using it right away, they need numbers to prove it's success to their shareholders (and justify why the subscription model was not used), and it's also not a good idea to add it as a new feature in a future content patch.

8. What if a Korean RMAH-locked account is outside of Korea, but they continue to use a Korean-based IP address? :) Will sending in proof of relocation be sufficient, how do they confirm it's real if they're still coming from (what it appears to be) Korea? Managing all of this will be brutal, and probably not something currently prepared for (leaving #1 or #2 above as their best options).

9. One country alone can cause D3 to be completely redesigned from scratch, making Diablo 3 a region-locked game and throwing them back to the drawing board on the Real Money Auction House and their relationship with PayPal.

The big one, though, is restricting users in Korea from accessing any other region.. which is not how the game was designed. Blizzard providing and supporting gambling illegally in another country would be very bad. And, as I've said, the game can only be pushed back so far. If there are more delays in January, expect options #1 or #2. There are substantial pros and cons to having a "region free" game. :)

I hope other publishers or developers are following this. If they intend to create new real money trading systems for their own games, as alternatives to the dying subscription model, they need to consider all of the potential issues.

You've probably already heard about this tweet by now. Blizzard_ANZ is apparently a completely legitimate official Blizzard tweet (from the Australia/NZ team.)

Now that I've had a chance to go over it some more in detail, here's what I think.

Starting from the first tweet:

Should have a nice update for everyone by the end of the week if all goes to plan...

They're referring to the Spike VGA.

So most people are on the right track as it is regarding Diablo3. More details to follow... :)

When he posted his first tweet, he was tweeted back: "Release date?", "Please be the release date", "Finally the D3 release date!", "Better be the release date", etc. And this second Tweet was a RESPONSE to those tweets. "D3 Release Date" was the vast majority (and I mean it's real definition, not the Zarhym definition of 'vast majority') of responses, plus that's what everyone has been speculating since the VGA announcement. (If by some small chance he was not responding to follow up tweets.)

Blizzard is basically CONFIRMING that the Diablo 3 release date will be announced this Saturday (in the US) at the VGA.

...On a semi related note ow.ly/7PIs0 is coming out on the 13th December. I now know what I want for Christmas :)

"On a related note, here's something ELSE being released and here is it's release date.."

None of the other trolling attempts I took very seriously. But this time, it's coming from an official Blizzard only-news-related source, rather than the "semi-official" Twitter pages of employees. It's just a little weird that it's coming from the AU/NZ team though. (Like it's something specific to their region.. better not be RMAH related.)

There's no other way of analyzing this; Blizzard has confirmed that the release date WILL be announced this Saturday (in the US). So, I'll actually be really pissed this time if it's not announced and it was one huge troll.

Some other readers also noted that information is more hastily being released now, in relation to this article. Maybe something happened that has allowed them to firm up a release date now? They were waiting on Korea, but Blizzard Korea just announced major delays in the RMAH approvals and government certification, which I predicted that if it would take too long (they can only push back so far), that they would eventually just say "screw it" and move forwards with implementation everywhere else. This timing seems impeccable. (They were waiting on feedback from the Korean government.)

Assuming the release date is announced this Saturday, what would be really awesome is if the release date is 02/23/2012 like what I originally mentioned. It's really the only prediction I have at the moment, since it times up well with an announcement this month, and also gives enough time in January for Digital Downloads to be made available. :)

Since there's been so much going on today, I'll be saving that other (larger) post for tomorrow. I'm still waiting for some more information about it anyways, but I wanted to get it out there because it's at a point where it can be published. But, if I receive any more details, I can continue developing the posts into others in the series.

tl;dr; It appears that Blizzard will be announcing the D3 release date this Saturday due to major setbacks within the Korean RMAH approval and implementation. February release date expected.

* UPDATE:

I was just thinking, that second tweet said "So most people are on the right track as it is regarding Diablo3."

This could mean, "people are on the right track about this Diablo announcement" (i.e. the release date.) Or he's being a complete smart-ass and just saying "people are right that this has something to do with Diablo 3".

What an asshole.. okay, I'm downgrading from "hopeful optimism" to "expecting disappointment" now. (Maybe they're going to wait a little longer to see if Korean approvals still come through. They still have until January, if they intend on releasing by March.)

* UPDATE:

Based on that "as it is regarding Diablo3" comment, and the "nice update for everyone by the end of the week", it's just not timed with the VGA and he's using trollspeak. So, I'm downgrading this completely to "just another troll attempt by Blizzard."

So..

That Blizzard Tweet is a Confirmation.. of more assholes trolling.

Do other companies, like Valve, do this to their customers.. or is it only Blizzard?

* UPDATE (12/8/11):

Yep, trolling assholes confirmed.

They're giving away 100 beta keys to Aus/NZ players (must follow them on Twitter to be eligible).

What bothers me the most about this is that they said "end of week" which isn't today, and when 99% of users tweeted back saying "Release Date?" he confirmed "So most people are on the right track" but then had to add "as it is regarding Diablo3." Teasing and trolling their customers for cheap laughs I guess.

I'm positive now the release date won't be announced on Saturday, plus everything going on with the Korean RMAH pretty much confirms it. We probably won't get a release date until January, or whenever they get a confirmation from the Korean GRB.

It appears that the SK Ratings Board is still deliberating what to do about Diablo 3. The RMAH is still being held back, and the Blizzard SK team has posted an update about the issue. (It's interesting that they actually had to make an update in the first place.. I guess things are taking much longer than expected.)

One of our readers (lchigo) alerted me to this new post on the Korean Battle.net website. (By the way, receiving updates like these are very helpful.. I can't keep track of everything after all. Keep it up!)

Approvals for new video games are usually pretty short. According to the GRB website, from submission to approval usually takes less than 30 days. I've seen some games approved within 3-5 days for example, with the really long ones taking no more than 1 month. D3 was been waiting for approval for a really long time now (several months at least), and I don't think it's just the GRB holding the approvals back.. it appears that there are other government bodies holding up the GRB before they can make their decisions (e.g. law makers / gambling investigation teams.)

Here's a very rough translation (I did myself) of the Korean Battle.net announcement:

Diablo III Release Readiness Update
Author: Blizzard Entertainment 05 December 2011 08:02 UTC 2

Hello Diablo III community,

Thanks for your enthusiasm and encouragement about Diablo III that was announced at this past Blizzcon, and thanks for your high quality feedback about the game. I want to take this opportunity to give you an update on the Diablo III release. The main issues we're having right now are in regards to Korea's potential real money auction house and associated ratings for the game.

We have recently announced plans to increase the number of Korean players in the Diablo III beta. A specific schedule has not been set yet as we are having a difficult time, but we will update you all as soon as possible once a date is committed. In addition, over the past beta builds of the Korean version of the game, we have received a lot of good feedback. These comments are gathered by the Diablo III team and they will be used to make sure this is an excellent game and meets all of our player's expectations, and we will have more information on the community site with more beta news forthcoming. In addition, you can apply for participation in the beta test on this page.

Diablo III - Korea Ratings Under Consideration

As we approach it's release, players can review the ratings to see if it is within their age group and if the game is suitable for them. We recently contacted the Korea Ratings Board to receive a Diablo III classification. We are aiming for a Mature Adult 18+ rating. The ratings for consideration were based on the latest version of the game and they have been provided a full version with all elements of the game included. We will provide more information and progress of their deliberations sometime at a later date.

The Auction House

As many of you know, Diablo III is introducing a powerful new auction system. Items are collected in the Diablo series, and characters grow through item buying which is an essential element of the game. However, there have been many issues and fraud related to buying items in the past. There are many risks of exposure using third-party merchant sites, and using them is a fairly complex process. But through our new auction house, money and in-game items is safe, fun, and can easily be bought and sold. For more information about the auction house, the information page can be found at: *doesn't matter*

There have been many questions about the currency auction house. An auction system like this is in some ways an unprecedented new effort, and there are different regulations and laws in other regions, which we are working on. After an internal investigation, we concluded that the auction house system is legitimate in Korea. However, we respect and are taking the classification system for each region very seriously. Blizzard has been working closely with the national regulation groups, and we are cooperating fully with the Korea rating committee. We are getting closer to release more information, and we will let you know the status soon.

For now, we want to make sure the community knows what's going on and so that you're not left wondering what's going on. Please continue to leave your comments and questions on the official forums, and we look forward to reading your comments.

Best wishes, Blizzard Korea.

If you speak Korean and can do a much better translation, let me know. :)

There haven't been any other confirmations of the SK approval in Blizzard news, so it looks like nothing has been approved yet and it's still being worked on.

Taking this long though, it must be a pretty serious investigation. In other regions (like NA/EU), the investigations won't happen until AFTER the game is released.. only then, after they see the effects of the game, can they conclude if it's gambling or not. (If could be addressed by any level of the government too.. from gambling law makers to child protection services.)

A couple weeks ago, I had said to expect some kind of announcement on November 30th.

Bashiok has recently sent a new Tweet semi-confirming that something will be announced today. Many users are expecting an imminent release date to be announced, but I think it's more of a troll by Blizzard. :)

It's certainly dramatic, but don't get too hyped up. When you say something like, "The Heavens Shall Tremble", that's a pretty huge deal and it means that something really really really really huge is coming. It was also the phrase used in the original Diablo 3 teaser/reveal. It's not a phrase one would just throw around, so it SHOULD be a big announcement.. but, it will probably be various Diablo related information releases, game details, beta keys, Book of Cain information, more street art, Diablo in-game vanity pets, or any of the other possible stuff that I had previously mentioned.

It's certainly being hyped up like it's going to be a release announcement, but prepare for huge disappointment.

Yesterday, the Blizzard store and D3 NA/EU websites underwent some unscheduled maintenance as well. It would be nice to have the Digital Download available, but the release date will be announced before that ever happens.

Strangely, it seems that Diablo's 15th Anniversary might have moved from November 30 to some another date now. For a long time, the Diablo 1 release date was always recognized as November 30. However, it seems to have been moved to December 31st, or maybe January 2, or maybe January 7th. Some sources even have the PC release in 1998. Blizzard also removed previous mentions of the Anniversary Date from their website. :)

I'm going to have to go dig through some old magazines to see when it really came out. Either way, prepare to be trolled by Blizzard today. :)

* Update:

Well, whatever the Anniversary Date really is, expect another announcement on that day too.

The November 1996 issue of PC Gamer had a Diablo review and they said that it was "AVAILABLE NOW" for Windows 95.

Blizzard announced Diablo 1's release on January 3, 1997. Either it was a late response, or retail stores broke the street date on Dec 31st, making that the "official" anniversary date instead. :)

I also discovered Blizzard's early attempts at vanity figures: "BLIZZARD ANNOUNCES OVER 13 MILLION GAMES (played over Battle.net)". Forum users (even now) were taking about this really old announcement and are claiming that Diablo 1 sold "13 million copies."

They didn't read the fine print though, it was 750,000 copies "sold-through" worldwide. It's scary to see how easily they were influenced even now by something so blatantly obvious. Blizzard has gotten even better with their wording since then. :)

* UPDATE:

The D3 website has been updated to announce the new "J!NX Holiday Line". They claimed that "The Burnings [sic] Hells have been unleashed, and the world of Sanctuary requires your aide, brave adventurer." Weren't the Burning Hells already released though.. in the form of street art?

Anyways, I really hope this wasn't their troll attempt. They can do still much better.

* UPDATE:

They did much better, it was a giant troll for the new and improved Diablo intro cinematic v3. It's going to have 17.2 seconds more footage than all of the others that we have already seen! Can't wait!

* UPDATE:

Matais pulled one of the files from the original Diablo 1 disc.

Guess what? It's dated "November 30, 1996". :)

So the game was completed and out (gold) by November 30, 1996 and it hit stores by December 31, 1996. I don't know.. which one would you consider it's real anniversary?

It's been over a month now since Blizzard stated that they're really just at the "fine tuning stage" of Diablo 3. We all know the game is done and Blizzard employees have been playing from beginning to end over-and-over with only a couple hints of the end-game boss (Diablo) being bugged.

All of the content is completed; voice recording, art, sound effects, assets, story, text/lore, bosses, NPCs, game engine, mechanics, animation, etc. According to Wyatt and Jay, it's really just fine tuning, character balancing, and technical systems (e.g. servers, load balancing, etc.)

Quality assurance and bug fixes will always be an ongoing process. Right now, the D3 beta is in excellent shape, and comments made by Blizzard employees paint a picture of very few bugs in the full game.

Minor bug fixes, fine tuning, and character balancing never held back their previous games though. In WOTLK & CAT, there were very few changes from beta to retail, and most of the fine tuning and character balancing happened post-retail.

You might argue that because WOTLK & CAT beta test periods lasted approx. 5 months each, that Diablo 3 should be expected to last the same. However, D3 is completely different in scope, game size, playing length, and gaming systems (consider the number of bugs in a smaller game like D3 instead of WOW). PVP is also very minor in D3, so very little balancing is required in that regard. During Blizzcon 2010, Jay Wilson expected that the D3 beta would last 6 months before release, but that was for the full Diablo 3 game. They shortened the beta into a tech demo for the most part, and changed their beta plans into a much more condensed release schedule of 2-3 months. That's what we're in now, and we're getting really close to 3 months.

The game itself is polished and ready. Really, all that's left are "technical issues" and fine tuning.

But.. if they were serious about addressing technical and server load issues, why are beta keys being released so slowly and also in so little quantities? Why had there been so little changes to the D3 beta at Blizzcon, and so few changes still? Why so much minor fine-tuning that's typically done post-release? Why the extension of the beta? Why the release pushback and official announcement which they've never done before? Why no crunch time and reallocation of employees right now to "fully" complete the game?

It's almost as if everything is moving very slowly on purpose. The development team is keeping themselves busy with minor character balancing and tweaking, and releasing keys slowly (remember that there's also high attrition due to the beta game length), as if they're trying to buy time for something else.

It can't be technical issues, like preparing or testing their servers. They've been through this so many times with all of their other releases, it's just a standard activity with no big surprises now. As well, there would be a major influx of beta keys when it's time to really stress test their servers..

During the last quarterly call, Morhaime said that RMAH testing would begin "very soon".

Could it be that it's just the RMAH holding everything back?

The game is ready, servers are ready, and they're just keeping themselves busy by making minor tweaks to the game now?

The RMAH is a really big deal for them, after all. Blizzard has been stressing the two most important aspects of Diablo 3 to their fans and investors; it's an item centric game and it has real money trading. Blizzard C-Levels even rushed to Korea to argue for it's implementation and use in SK.

I can't even begin to stress how much of a big deal it really is. It's Diablo's replacement for the (standard WOW) "subscription model" and it's also the new replacement subscription system for future games. If it's proven to be successful in Diablo 3, that is.

Could it be that they're just waiting for the RMAH to be approved? And that's when crunch time hits and they release the game shortly thereafter?

If that's the case, the game could be out today in a highly polished stated, but it would only have the Gold Auction House. The RMAH could be implemented a couple months later, but as a major content patch (or it could just be disabled until fully approved within the player's country).

Perhaps they're being questioned by various government bodies or approval agencies about the gambling aspect of the RMAH? Maybe these agencies don't even know about the gambling aspect of the RMAH, and are focusing on item drops instead. (The SK gambling board, for example, didn't know about it.)

Remember that a lot of these classification and approvals boards you're reading about on gaming sites might not care about gambling within the game, and it's other agencies that investigate these claims (after the fact). Announcements about "D3 APPROVED FOR PURCHASE IN X COUNTRY!" might not mean anything when it comes to the RMAH or gambling.

For example, when gaming blogs (like incgamers) announced that Diablo 3 had received a BBFC 15 rating. The BBFC doesn't care about gambling, the game or it's mechanics. They're film censors and they're only interested in cutscenes and gameplay animations. That's the extent of their scope.

According to the USK (Germany Ratings Board),

Payment systems have no impact on the rating decisions which are made on the basis of the Children and Young Persons Protection Act. In Germany this is a question of consumer protection and regulations around that field more than those of youth protection.

According to PEGI Consumer Affairs,

The transfer of money for in-game objects is fairly new. This method, in some games referred to as micro transactions, is still finding a way to implement itself on a more regular basis. We are aware of this and also recognize the fact that Diablo III is in the forefront of this development.

Because this is still such a rare phenomenon, we can’t really classify this.

Once these games (incl. Diablo) have hit the market, we can review all these complaints and let our experts group take a look at this. This panel is composed of scientists, child psychologists and media experts, and they are the once who can make the final judgement if our system has to be changed. This is not something we can do if we feel like it. All the changes to our system have to be based on scientific proof/research that it is indeed harmful, or should be warned for.

According to PEGI, there have also been complaints about the Diablo 3 gambling system. But, they will still allow the game to be approved so that they can study it's long term impacts before coming to a full decision regarding it's legality.

Knowing this, I wonder if the Korea ratings board is the only government body that Blizzard is waiting for. So, D3 is primarily being held back for a feature that's not necessary, most people have mixed feelings about, and because of one country? It's all so quiet on the media front, it's really hard to find out who is reviewing the game or who Blizzard is waiting on for approval.

So right now, it's really difficult to tell if the RMAH is the main reason for holding back the game. There are a few ways to confirm if this is the case though; timing of announcements (approvals vs release), public government reports (if you can find them, or if they take months to release), significant beta/game changes, beta key releases, technical problems, and testing of the RMAH. If the RMAH isn't tested "very soon" (e.g. 2011), for example, then we'll have more answers. :)

Continuing on with my thoughts about manipulation and how (many) users don't view Facebook was very useful or reliable, I wanted to demonstrate a practical example of how it can be used and has been used (many times) with great success.

This is also a warning piece about the dangers of employees using Facebook, really any profile site for that matter.

Here's a very good practical example from a completely open (public) Facebook profile:

And remember, this is just one example out of HUNDREDS, if not thousands. I chose this one specifically because it was public, and you can see it for yourself.

While others are saying "Facebook is unreliable for real information!!!" I think that you're beginning to see some of the real possibilities here.

The problem with WOW phishing scammers is that they don't really have any personal details about their targets, so they're left with very generalized phishing lure emails, and they try to email as many people as possible (usually using email addresses datamined from WOW gaming forums.)

But look at the dangers associated with Facebook in this case.

• You now have detailed personal information about every one of these individuals.
• You know where they live.
• You know their profession and where they work.
• You know their family members and their email addresses too.
• You have their own personal email address.
• You know that this is also their Battle.net LOGIN ID.
• And you know that they're in the Diablo 3 Friends & Family beta.

I don't know about you, but to me that's a tremendous amount of highly useful information for targeted and very convincing phishing scams or trojan horse email attachments. This is the kind of stuff that scammers salivate over.

All of these users just publicly posted a ton of information about themselves and they didn't even care. This is how dangerous Facebook is, and why it is indeed reliable for useful information or leaks.

All over Facebook, Blizzard employees have been handing out F&F Diablo 3 beta invites like candy (typically 15 available each). Even to people they hardly even know. Can you see how easily certain employees could be manipulated, or how anyone with insincere intentions could get an invite too?

Here are some theoretical examples;

• Pick a group of lesser known Blizzard artists (Concept, Cinematics, Character, Environments, etc) who have Facebook accounts. Start following them on their blog or art forum, compliment them on their new postings, stroke their ego, and do it over a few weeks or months. Once they start getting use to your name/alias, send a FB invite to join them and tell them who you are ("Hey, this is uberfan98 from CGHUB! I love your art, mind if we connect through FB?") It works better before the F&F beta starts of course, but it's still possible get an invite if they haven't burned through them already.
• This isn't just limited to artists or developers, though, often the support staff or sound engineers are overlooked and they have plenty of extra beta invites available; IT Managers, Customer Service, Recruiting, DBA, Network Administrators, Web Designers, etc.
• You can also get invites through their blog, Twitter, or other profile. And, the shy or quiet ones will always have a lot of beta invites available (look for ones who blog about their cats.. just sayin'). If their blog is more about themselves, and they don't have any pictures of their family or friends, they'll have a lot available.
• People who are in a hurry can just randomly send out Facebook invitation requests to random employees to see who bites ("I'm a huge fan! Let's be friends!"). Or, because FB reveals so much about users, it's makes it really easy just to pretend to be an old friend from high school or college ("Hey! I sat behind you in.. uhhh... History, yeah that's right").
• The problem with pretending to be someone else, though, is that you need to create a backstory for your new internet identity. For example, create a new email address, create a new Battle.net account, and use a different mailing address in your registration. The overly paranoid should also use VPN during all of this. It's very unlikely that your "mark" would every confirm IP information to your location, though, and they would just look at your email address or B.Net account summary.

This is something I've known about for a very long time, and I know for a fact that many people have exploited their "friends" for Beta invites. There are hundreds of profile accounts out there right now, with thousands of F&F beta invites still available. And, once you get your foot in the door, you're more eligible (almost guaranteed) for future beta invites.

Facebook unreliable and not very useful? Right.

Anyone who ever says this is completely oblivious to the dangers of the internet, and they have probably revealed a ton of personal information about themselves publicly. If you were to leave a USB drive labelled "naughty pix" outside their front door, they're the kind of people who would plug it into their work computer to see what's on it (and not even consider the ramifications.)

The internet is not always a nice place, and you would be wise to remove all personal information about yourself from it. This is just one example of why (and why you should never mix your social life with work).

Defining Manipulation

Yesterday, I was talking about how easily users or news media can be easily manipulated. "Manipulated" is such a harsh word, though. I meant it in it's harshest sense yesterday, but there's also another kind of manipulation that happens all the time that most don't view as manipulation.

It's the kind of manipulation you've grown accustomed to in television, billboard, radio, or internet advertising; sex in beer ads, Photoshopped women in magazines, survival or fear inducing advertisements that get you to buy a security system or gun, mood changing music, disturbing imagery to encourage charitable donations, or anything else that can manipulate your baser instincts.

You're manipulated into what you should buy or what brands you should trust. News media manipulate you with click-bait news reports about "Africanized Killer Bees" to get you watching their stations. (I'm still waiting for those killer bees that were supposed to wipe out the US.)

We are all being manipulated through very subtle means, but it's still manipulation.

Video games companies are no different. It started out as just groups of friends making fun games and selling them. The only marketing they were concerned with were retail box aesthetics, and where to advertise. But, as businesses evolved so did marketing.

These days, video game corporations employ scientists and psychologists who are experts in market research, analytics, consumer behavior and psychology, demographics, and purchasing patterns. And all of this is backed up even further by decades of marketing and gambling research performed in other fields of business. Even smaller video game companies, if they can't afford psychologists, will use marketing techniques from research studies that have been tempered over the decades.

So, when I use the word "manipulated", I mean it within a strategic marketing context.

Blizzard's Gentle Nudging Towards Titan

Now that I've gotten that out of the way.. did you know that Blizzard fans are being manipulated as we speak?

They're being prepared for "something" and most people won't even realize the plan until after fruition (if they even find out at all). But, I've always found it fun to see the plan from the beginning, watch as it unfolds around you, and see how users are being manipulated without even knowing it.

Their Next Gen MMO has been in the works for a while now, but they also have a lot of future features and services planned for release or post. There are many scheduled activities, and they don't just happen because of "last minute brainstorms", but rather they are planned YEARS in advance. Some things need to happen first, too, before the game comes out.

We're being prepared for Titan right now, and one thing that needs to happen is gamer acceptance.

Blizzard's revenue generators are changing, and with subscriptions becoming less and less acceptable (there are more AAA games with free subscriptions, and players are beginning to realize the true, extremely cheap, operating costs of these services), Blizzard needs to create new ways to generate revenue.. and players aren't going to like them.

It's going to be one of those "removing the band aid slowly" versus "ripping it off" type approaches. :)

The Real Money Auction House

This is one of the items that should be most obvious.

Blizzard needs the RMAH system to be more accepted by their existing consumers so that they're prepared for future similar changes to new (and possibly even existing) games.

There are promises of wealth and they're going after our greed needs just like lottery tickets.

Jay Wilson, Diablo 3 Game Director, is even hoping that Diablo 3 will be "the greatest slot machine ever made." (I knew that IGN quote would come in handy one day!)

I don't believe myself that the original concept (or multiple iterations) of Diablo 3 ever had a RMAH planned.. I think it was something that came out within the past 1-2 years, and it only came about after Titan brainstorming discussions. I think it's a way to make these systems more acceptable for Blizzard games, get player's feet wet, and get them prepared for Titan.

Even if the RMAH fails (meaning that it still generates revenue, but not within their expectations), they still have something else planned that's going to be huge.

Real ID 2.0

Have you noticed that over the past year, Blizzard has really been pushing their customers to start using Facebook? They're targeting players in all of their franchises: SC2, WOW and D3.

Starting with Starcraft 2, they even integrated Facebook features within Battle.net, and are integrating Battle.net features within Facebook. They also have plans on implementing even more "Facebook-related features on Battle.net" that will "be announced at a later date." These are all just the initial steps of a larger long term plan.

They're also having major contests through Facebook now, where you MUST have a legitimate Facebook account in order to be eligible for participation.

Hmm.. that's interesting. They're pushing Blizzard gamers for Real IDentities. Wait a minute! Didn't they just try that in Battle.net? Blizzard is pushing "Real ID" again, but indirectly. This time, though, there's no fuss, no outrage, no uproar, and no one's complaining.. interesting. :)

Don't be surprised if Blizzard creates new ways to push Facebook signups and utilization even further:

• There will be heavy advertising and promotions (especially as Titan gets closer) to attract Blizzard users to Facebook.
• Gamers will be encouraged to share with friends through Facebook.
• Existing FB users can invite friends for special bonuses through FB.
• Special bonuses or features for users who already have FB accounts. Virtual items like tabards, pets, or achievements for FB users only.
• Using FB "Likes" to unlock certain FB pages, videos or images (which forces more users to sign up on FB.)
• Videos or information that are only available through FB pages.
• Sweepstakes or mini-games that can only be played on Facebook.

Mini-games you say? Yes, during Blizzcon 2010 and again in 2011, Blizzard noted that mini-games might be planned for future Blizzcons. FB would sure make a great platform for Blizzard mini-games.. and they don't all have to be played during Blizzcon. Do you forsee some possible FB mini-games that can be played by anyone who signs up with FB? :)

(Make note too how a lot of these movements started in 2010.)

How Is Real ID 2.0 Useful Though?

So Blizzard is heavily pushing Facebook use, Facebook is integrated with Battle.net, and Facebook contains real player information and details about their life, interests, profession, what they like, and what they dislike.

Real ID through Battle.net was completely unacceptable because of privacy concerns. But, Blizzard just integrated your personal Facebook details with Battle.net and you apparently found that completely acceptable.. or you just never realized the connection. :)

Remember.. FB applications and this new B.Net integration have no boundaries. Battle.net now has complete access to all of your personal details that you think are only restricted to your close friends and family. (Real ID is still active, mind you, but it's just not mandatory. It can still be used internally by Blizzard for targeting, especially if combined with other databases.)

So, what was the purpose of Real ID in the first place?

Targeted advertising.

Back in July 2010, Blizzard had planned targeted advertising within Starcraft 2. They entered into a contract with Microsoft's Massive Inc. to deliver in-game advertisements within Starcraft 2.

Coincidentally, this was also around the same time that REAL ID was announced. :)

Real ID caused a scandal and it failed, and then within about a month, Blizzard cancelled their contract and pulled the plug on their Microsoft partnership and SC2 in-game advertising.

It's almost as if in-game (targeted) advertising was dependent on the Real ID system. :)

Having a constant flow of 10-20 million players per day and access to a very sophisticated targeting advertising platform, Blizzard can reap a MASSIVE amount of profit by entering into the advertising business. (Targeted advertising is bigger than most people realize. It's where Google's immense wealth came from.)

Their first in-game advertising attempt failed due to Real ID "1.0". But, now they have Real ID 2.0, and a new monster to deliver in-game advertising.

In-Game Advertising

I'm adding this quick entry to the list of "items needing gamer acceptance."

It's not that big of a deal as most gamers are okay with it (as long as it's not obtrusive or annoying). But, with their (failed) attempt at in-game advertising within Starcraft 2, Blizzard made their intentions clear that this is something they want, it's important, and they're trying to get our "feet wet" for more future implementations.

Battle.net 3.0

While we're on the subject of getting players "feet wet", according to the most recent Blizzcon Survey, Blizzard might also allow Virtual Ticket holders to play games remotely.

This sounds a lot like Battle.net 3.0. :)

Titan is supposed to have a wider audience and more "broad appeal", and it was theorized that that the Next Gen MMO could accomplish this through a gaming on demand service where it could be played on a large number of platforms:

It would fit in very well with their Battle.net services and would definitely work well with their new "Next Gen" MMO. Maybe the "Next Gen" bit isn't just about new consoles, but rather opening up their games for many platforms regardless of age? With live streaming services, you don't have to worry too much about processor speed, video card performance, memory, or harddrive capacity.

If it's feasible, gamers could have high end graphics but on low end PCs.

Blizzard would just need to test it out, see if it's possible, how much of a reach the streaming service has (distance limitations), and acceptable performance. Blizzcon 2012 might be a good time for some initial testing. :)

How This All Relates To Titan

It's not just Titan though. Other Blizzard games could have any number of these features implemented, depending on how successful they are (and other factors).

Since Blizzard now has a new Real ID system, it will be perfect for targeted advertising within future games. But, it's not possible within all genres of video games. Advertisements could be used in Diablo chat rooms, for example, and on Starcraft 2 in-game billboards. But, they're not appropriate within the Diablo world itself.

A certain type of game would be needed to accommodate in-game ads. Something that matches our real world more closely; a modern world, with virtual billboards, radio, and TV. And that brings us to Titan.

Titan is rumored to be similar to Second Life, it will have a lot of characters (NPCs) within it, there are a large number of environments, and it might have more of a real (or modern) world feel to it. If so, a world like this would be perfect for in-game ads and linking real world items with in-game purchases or vice versa. (RL ads to get you buying virtual items, and in-game ads getting you to buy RL items.)

A lot of this can be done through a Real Money Auction House, which you can bet will be implemented in Titan if the D3 testing is successful. Titan would be perfect for a large quantity of items, homes, or furnishings that can be created or sold. Personally, I don't think there will be houses or land for sale, but I do think there will be a large number of vanity items that can be crafted or sold for real money.

(Even if there are multiple environments, like the historical and ancient cities that have been hinted at, advertising would still be possible whether they're at a certain hub, meeting place, or even in these environments depending on suitability.)

The Titan RMAH might also go under some (currently planned) changes.. for example, Blizzard selling virtual items like how the TF2 store is run. Blizzard doesn't want to offend any players right now by selling items directly themselves, so they're getting users familiar with the new system first before moving into their next phase. (Much like "Real ID 2.0", they're playing it cool and doing it smart).

Right now, they're targeting existing Blizzard customers and getting more of them to start using Facebook. Eventually, they'll target FB users (who are not Blizzard customers or MMO gamers) to become Blizzard regulars.

Of course, all of this could just be something as simple as using socialization to increase recognition, chatter, and new consumers. The failure of mandatory Real ID and the subsequent cancellation of their in-game advertisements could have been a sheer coincidence. But, I always found it strange that they wanted Real ID in the first place.. their reasoning never made any sense.

All of their pushes have been Facebook specific as well. When it comes to "pushing users", they're ignoring all of the other social platforms and advertising mediums. When was the last Twitter-specific contest? Twitter is just used to link back to Facebook.

They've talked a lot of Battle.net monetization and finding new ways to generate revenue. Subscription based games are slowly going away, with advertising or taking cuts from real money transactions making a great replacement.

I think it's all part of a greater plan. Like Blizzard said, Titan is their most ambitious project ever. And all of these systems or strategies are very easy to implement, they're practical, and they're highly lucrative.

It's just going to take a few years of nudging players into the right direction and adjusting their personal level of acceptance. You can call it "manipulation" if you want.. the description is apt.

tl;dr; Blizzard slowly entering into the advertising business. Titan will be subscription free, have more real life connections, have real money transactions, and have in-game advertising.

I wanted to remind everyone that this coming November 30th is Diablo's 15th Anniversary which is a pretty big milestone for the franchise.

As you might have noticed, Blizzard has been doing a lot of "celebratory" activities recently. They've had a lot of interesting things prepared for their 20th Anniversary, and even though they have minor Anniversary activities within the World of Warcraft, they reserve special bonuses for more notable milestones.

We plan to reserve this sort of celebratory bonus for the most notable milestones or events in the future.

(FYI: World of Warcraft was released on November 23, 2004, which was the 10th Anniversary of the Warcraft franchise.)

I don't think that the game will be released (or the release date announced) on November 30th of course. They still haven't tested the RMAH yet and technical stress testing is far from completion. And, they still need a major ramp up of beta testers too due to the high attrition rates associated with the short beta gameplay.

The 15th is still a big deal though, and there will be something for all Diablo fans.. it won't just be limited to beta testers like how the WoW Anniversary is limited to WoW subscribers only.

There might be a minor announcement (a major beta wave sometime after Dec 12th), but I'm expecting some kind of information release like more lore, loot details, D3 art galleries, maybe a retrospective video, music, "making of" videos, etc. Simple stuff to keep Diablo fans busy until the release date.

(* UPDATE: There is a "Diablo 15th Anniversary Music CD" available in the Blizzard Store.)

The "Book of Cain" is also rumored to have moved it's arrival date up from Dec 15 to Nov 30 coincidentally as well. :)

November 30th would be a great time to announce the Diablo 3 release date though. It could be used as the "big bang" to finally close up the whole Blizzard 20th Anniversary celebration that has been going on over the past several months. After all, they had originally planned on a surprise D3 release announcement at Blizzcon 2011 which no one knew about (except one person/blog) and Nov 30 is awfully close to their originally planned release date (Nov 24).

Now that I mention it.. you know, it's funny that the individuals who scrutinized TOD's old March post conveniently forgot about something rather important. During the Q4 2010 (Feb 2011) Quarterly Earnings Call, Blizzard stated that they would not be releasing any games during 2011. It made the majority of gaming sites.. "no releases in 2011". That was the firm belief of everyone.

And then on March 23 2011, Daeity said that they were actually intending on releasing Diablo 3 in 2011 before Christmas, that there would be a surprise at Blizzcon, and there was a "mid-Jan backup date". Whether you originally read it in March, or in August when the site was brought back up, people were still saying no releases in 2011.. but TOD was saying the opposite.

Then suddenly, Blizzard announced on September 23 2011 that "'Soon' Was Too Soon -- Diablo III to Arrive in Early 2012" and D3 had been pushed back to 2012. They revealed publicly that they were fully intending on releasing D3 before Christmas. This is the first time Blizzard ever announced anything like this, and apologized.. that's just how big of a deal it really was. They had already announced "no releases in 2011" so there was absolutely no need to ever make this post since 2012 was already the target like everyone knew. That apology ended up confirming why TOD kept saying that it was going to be a "big surprise" at Blizzcon 2011.. they've never done anything like that before, it was a very big deal. No one else was reporting this, it was just one person, and it turned out to be true just like everything else.

On a side note, while I was looking over that old Q4 2010 post, there was also this interesting piece:

* UPDATE:

Confirmation regarding lay-offs. Both Vicarious Visions and Freestyle Games have been hit with notices shortly after the meeting. According to Activision Blizzard's 8-K, they'll be getting rid of approx. 500 employees. The decision was made Feb. 3, and will be taking place on March 31 for the staff.

This same time last year, they laid off approx. 200 people. Apparently, February is the time of month when the non-performing studios need to start worrying.

This further confirms what I was writing about earlier regarding the "mass layoff" WARN notification system. Apparently, the 200 employees were reported to the WARN system.. but there were another 500 employees who were laid off, but it wasn't reported in the WARN system. Interesting.. apparently a "mass layoff" can be 1 to 5 employees, but 500 employees isn't considered a "mass layoff". :)