I had mentioned that it could really be explained in one sentence. Well, here it is; Blizzard's Developer Guild has been very "inactive" over the past 4 months.

What I mean by "inactive" is that there's hardly anyone logging in or playing any more. Many of them have frozen their accounts and it's just very quiet these days. Nothing like what it used pre-Cataclysm. It's something that I thought would be interesting to share and it says a lot right there. Even people who can play the game for free haven't been playing since Cataclysm. And, they're also the people who "represent" the game in a way.

Mind you, the Dev Guild isn't made up entirely of developers or even Blizzard employees. It used to be in the beginning, but over time they have invited many friends and family members who are now in the guild.

I just thought it was kind of interesting that even they seem to have gotten bored by the game, and it's not just us lowly gamers. :)

I'll have more to talk on another subject relating to the Dev Guild in future post.

Oh also, there was another thing I was mulling around. :) It's become quite an annoyance to keep switching users when posting new stuff, so I'm just going to be using the Daeity name for blogposts moving forwards. I'm not sure if Blogger has any way of changing the name, but I'll look into it. It's much easier just using a single account.

Transferred from paxdora.blogspot.com [LINK]
Original Post Date: 7/26/11

Ever since the Cataclysm mistake, the growing boredom of WoW, and the big chunk of subscribers Blizzard has lost to RIFT they're really going to have to pump out something unexpected and awesome.

They had originally planned on releasing X4 and X5 in 2012, as per the Product Release Slate, but because of Cataclysm they're going to have to change their plans quite dramatically to fix things.

They also have a lot of competitors coming up soon too. RIFT took away approximately 600k players, SWTOR will take away probably around the same amount, TERA Online will probably take away of 300k chunk, and the skies the limit for Guild Wars 2 but it could be anywhere between 2 and 4 million players.

They'll be able to distract gamers and investors for a little while by focusing on Diablo 3 sales and "subscribers", but WoW is still one of the biggest money makers for Activision and they need to do something drastic to attract players back. That is, unless, they're planning on retiring growth on the game within the next 2-3 years.

After learning from the Cataclysm mistake, X4 better not include a remake of Outlands. Remaking old content has simply not worked and I trust they've learned from their mistakes. They need to create awesome new zones, wrap up all lose ends, and push the main "story" into brand new territory. There needs to be a new focus for players, and some changes to gameplay to improve things. If they're really serious about keeping the game alive, X4 will have more than 1 new hero class, more than 1 new race, new quest types, a 3rd faction, mounted combat, at least 2 awesome professions, and a true expansion of everything.

Not sure if you've read older posts, but way back in September of 2010 I had said that the ZG mounts would be making a comeback. I couldn't find any other posts to the contrary.. all of the news and WoW sites were all saying that the mounts were gone for good.

I had heard something else though. =]

Glad to see that everything I wrote about so long ago has finally come to fruition - the mounts, the Insane title, and the Qiraji Battle Tank available for more players and outside of the instance.

In regards to new Cataclysm realms, it appears that everything was all setup internally for new realm deployments too. But, the "Cataclysm experiment" failed to meet Blizzard's expectations and it looks like it has actually resulted in a reverse flow of subscriptions unfortunately. =[

This is good news for their next expansion pack however (or even content patches between now and then.) It means that they'll really have to do something awesome to bring players back. I'm hoping for a couple new Hero classes, a new crafting profession (create relics/wands/bows/fletching or elemental poisons for rogues), class-specific quests (like a Rogue's Den that issues daily assassination quests that require cunning), and/or maybe a third faction (with all brand new classes/races "from another dimension" to adjust the lore.) Paid class changes, larger backpack, more character slots, or progression servers might be interesting too.

Blizzard has just made their official announcement regarding first month sales.

Just as a reminder from my previous post, though, there's a little caveat with their official announcement:

...setting a new record for monthly PC-game sales.*

*Based on internal company records and reports from key distribution partners. Includes digital distribution.

Now.. it's not really a PC game, is it? It's cheaper DLC or an "unlock" code really (since players don't actually need the DVD or even the download since it's just the old 4.0 patch), so you can't really compare it to any other game releases of the year.

The "PC game" also "sold through more than 4.7 million copies as of its first month of release, setting a new record for monthly PC-game sales.* Basically, what that means is that Blizzard's "first month" actually means 3+ months of sales.

Blizzard was supposed to make at least 5-6 million sales in the first (real) month according to expert analysts. So, it looks like their revenue for the quarter will fall short of the anticipated $600 million mark.

Cataclysm sales numbers are definitely no where close to the more successful TBC and WOTLK expansion packs. Although Blizzard has been putting on a strong game face, sources tell me that they were actually disappointed by the sales - much more was anticipated for their revival attempt of WoW.

To help put things into perspective, here's a breakdown of their expansion pack sales:

The Burning Crusade (incl. Pre-Sales)
2.4 million in first 24 hours
3.5 million in first month

Wrath of the Lich King (incl. Pre-Sales)
2.8 million in first 24 hours
4.0 million in first month

Cataclysm (incl. Pre-Sales and Digital Downloads)
3.3 million in first 24 hours
4.7 million in first month

Since Cataclysm is a special case (players able to purchase and install the retail on Nov. 3rd) and if you ignore Blizzard's fine print, sales figures were actually:

Cataclysm (incl. Pre-Sales)
2.2 million in first 24 hours *
3.3 million in first month
4.7 million by second month

* It's probably even less than 2.2, I would estimate maybe 1.5 - 2.0 million based on average sales trends.

Take it for what you will, though.. all I know is that expert analysts were predicting 6 million sales on the first day, Blizzard said it was 3.3 million, and I'm guessing that it was less than 2 million.

WoW had already peaked a couple years ago, plateaued, and now it's slowly meandering downwards. I don't think they'll be able to pull off the same kind of "record shattering" announcement for their next expansion pack since they have already taken advantage of the Digital Download-skewed "24 hour sales" numbers.

(Well.. there are some ways to do it actually. One way is to extend Digital Downloads to more than 1 month before launch and really push promotions. The second way is to reduce the cost of the expansion pack. The third way to to have multiple "opening days" in different geographies - for example, release the game in the largest (subscriber) geography a few days before the smaller ones. That way you can include several days of sales up-to-and-including the "opening day" of the smaller geographies.)

I think Diablo 3 is going to do phenomenally well though, and it probably will shatter PC game sales (it's a much better comparison too, since it's actually a stand alone game and not paid content). And then there's the next gen MMO.. that's going to do really well too - I just hope they don't inflate subscription counts like they did with WoW. I like it when companies listen to their customers and are more honest and transparent with game sales and the development process.

Blizzard announced their Sales Figures today, and all of the major media organizations (IGN, Joystiq, Gamepro, etc. etc.) are reporting that Cataclysm sold 3.3 million copies within the first 24 hours.

In actual fact, all of that information is completely false. It's like they just read the Subject Header without actually reading any of the factual information.

Blizzard sold a "record 3.3 million copies sold through as of its first 24 hours of release*". There was even a asterisk pointing to a small little caption at the bottom of their announcement, but no one seems to be paying attention. =]

Normally, Pre-Sales are included in industry announcements - but the new Digital Download process makes this a very different case. It's like heavily hyping a game, pushing it's "first" release date, allowing players to buy the game and install it on their PC, then have a "second" release date but say all of the sales were actually made on the "second release date". Most if not all other developers can't do this, making this a special case.

That 3.3 million sales figure was based on ALL sales over the past several months and included Pre-Order Sales and Digital Downloads (which went live Nov. 3, 2010). Blizzard is a master in the communication arena and it's like what I've always been saying - it's all about wording. Sales during the first 24 hours were probably significantly less than 2.5 million, but there's no way to tell since Blizzard opened up Digital Downloads during the same quarter as the release. Very sneaky.

Jay Allen Brack originally stated, "We expect the Cataclysm sales to exceed the levels of the previous versions, but we do not have an exact target." So that new announcement needed to be worded in such a way that it didn't make him look bad. I'm really disappointed with the lack of transparency.

But it gets even more sneaky..

1. Let's ignore all of Digital Downloads (over one month prior to retail launch day) for a moment.

Blizzard didn't actually count sales during the first 24 hours of Dec. 7th. In fact, they included sales from Dec. 7th, Dec. 8th, and Dec. 9th. Dec. 10th was the actual "ending date" of the 24 hours sales period. =]

World of Warcraft: Cataclysm was simultaneously released in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand on December 7, and became available in Korea and the regions of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau on December 9.

Cataclysm became available in Korea and parts of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau on December 9th. So, they counted the 24 hour sales period from geographies that contained the smallest number of sales but added in 3 WHOLE DAYS OF SALES from their largest subscriber based geographies. Nice.

That's a HUGE amount considering the daily trends of average game sales. For example: 5M sales opening day, 3M sales next day, 1.5M next day, 750k next day, etc. If Cataclysm sales were based on previous Expansion Pack sales (and there was never a Digital Download), that 3.3 million number was actually calculated over a 3 day period, and it would have ACTUALLY been closer to 2 million on the first day, 1 million the second day, 300-500k on the third day, and so on.

2. Blizzard stated that Cataclysm sales made "it the fastest-selling PC game of all time.*". However, that statement also had a little caption attached. It was, in fact, the "fastest-selling PC game" based on Blizzard's internal lineup of games and the use of special calculations from their own "internal company records". Meaning that they included 2 months of sales, but are classifying it as "sales in 24 hours".

3. They also called it a "PC game", but Cataclysm is not a stand-alone video game. It's an expansion pack (it could even be classified as a large patch or DLC) with a much cheaper pricing model than a real PC game purchase. I don't know if you could even classify the retail DVD as a large patch.. it's just the 4.0 update which players can (and already have) download for free. Really, if you get technical, you're just paying for a code to "unlock" new stuff for your account.

Sales did not actually "shatter" anything and if you've been reading earlier posts you'll know that 3.3 million sales over a 2 month period are not good at all. It also looks like this little prediction came true. =]

So yeah.. Cataclysm is out tonight.

For the past couple weeks, there's been a lot of hype about the game and all the "amazing new changes" to starter leveling zones.

It's funny listening to all of the forum comments. For example, "Wow! There are so many AWESOME changes in the Undead starter area.. this is my first time starting an Undead character, but I can tell that they made a lot of changes! This is great!"

I even noticed that some people were complimenting the massive changes made to the Blood Elf & Draenei zones. /sigh

Based on the amount of time spent working on Cataclysm and all of the features removed, I think people should stop sucking Blizzard's dick for a moment and be a little more critical. Now that I've personally had a chance to see all of the changes done to Azeroth, I have to say that I'm a little disappointed.

Sure, there are some cool areas and some fun new quests but for the most part nothing has changed at all. All of the zones are the exact same, but with new NPCs, grass, trees and textures sprinkled in. I still remember the excitement built up when Cataclysm was first announced. Blizzard promised that the "world would be devoured by rage", "Azeroth would be shook to it's foundations", "the lands torn asunder", "Azeroth re-forged", "classic zones forever changed by the cataclysm", and that the "face of Azeroth will be changed forever by the awakening of Deathwing."

What happened, Blizzard?



I was expecting some pretty exciting and massive changes, but it looks like all of the best parts (ie, the biggest visual changes) were already displayed in the Cataclysm teaser video. It still funny to watch though.. I think everyone was more excited about flying mounts in the Old World then anything else.

Cataclysm File Size

The Cataclysm game isn't as big as some people are expecting. For the most part, you already had Cataclysm installed with those 4.0.1-4.0.3a patches. =]

The Cataclysm retail DVD mostly contains old files and patch data to make sure your version is most up-to-date... to 4.0.0 that is. If you install Cataclysm from the Retail DVD, it will in fact downgrade your entire install to 4.0.0 and you'll have to go through all of the updates from scratch again. There's going to be a lot of pissed off players when they realize this.

Here's a faster way if you purchased the retail copy. You can actually do this too without purchasing Cataclysm, but you'll still need the upgraded key to play Cataclysm.

With your existing 4.0.3a patch, it's also possible to upgrade your game client to the Cataclysm retail with about 327MB of data and even then, some of that data is just replacement information too. The new Cataclysm Digital Download [expansion3.MPQ (632.3MB), expansion3-speech-enUS.MPQ (55.5MB), expansion3-locale-enUS.MPQ (1.0MB)] is a little less than 700MB size, but it contains a lot of replacement information that's about as superfluous as a third nipple.

All of the Cataclysm data files amount to about 1/4 the size of WOTLK, but it should increase as Blizzard Blizzard applies for fixes, patches, and content updates to Cataclysm over the next several months.

Cataclysm Sales Predictions

Surprisingly, there really haven't been a lot of predictions made for Cataclysm.. possibly because they learned their lesson from the last expansion pack (overestimates.) Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia predicts that Cataclysm will sell between 3.5 and 4 million copies in their first month of sales. Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter predicted instead that Cataclysm will sell over 6 million copies in December (and 6 million for SC2).

For the sake of comparison, WOTLK sold 2.8 million copies in it's first 24 hours and TBC sold 2.4 million copies.

Even Blizzard themselves made a prediction, which I haven't seen in a really long time! Jay Allen Brack said, "We expect the Cataclysm sales to exceed the levels of the previous versions, but we do not have an exact target."

Very interesting indeed, but it shouldn't surprise me since Blizzard really went ALL OUT for this expansion pack and are trying to push as much revenue as possible this time around.

So, what exactly has Blizzard done?

This year, Blizzard has done quite a number of things to push sales of their new expansion pack while also driving revenue for the quarter across the board. It's quite a big deal too.. maybe they're trying to prove something to their investors. =]

- Cataclysm was designed from the ground up for intro-level players, and is a way for new players to join without fear of too many high-leveled or experienced players. It's sort of a "reset" to bring everyone back to the same level ground. It also encourages veteran players to invite more friends since they will be creating new characters (possibly on new servers too.)
- Cataclysm was also designed to bring back old players who miss the "good ol' days" and want Classic realms to make a return.
- Introduced the new Digital Download system for Cataclysm.
- Paid Faction and Race Changes available on the FIRST DAY for the new race/class combinations.
- New [Moonkin Hatchling] and [Lil Ragnaros] pet sales "for charity".
- Special Christmas (limited time) offers: Blizzard lowered the cost of WoW to $5, TBC to $5 and WOTLK to $10.
- Heavy media and email campaigns to bring back players, friends, and family members.
- Offering 7 days of free game time to all non-active players (right up to the day before Cata - Note: the expiration date was actually extended). These game offers actually concern me sometimes.. whenever Age of Conan, SWG or another failed MMORPG tried to get players to "Come Back!" it just came off as a sign of desperation.
- New forum system - completely cleaned house and made it easier to remove negative comments and old critical posts, while also further crippling search capabilities.
- The new Blizzard Digital Sales system will now obscure true sales numbers (since retails sales are tracked by NPD) and Blizzard is under no requirement to release sales figures to the public. They can pretty much announce anything they want - e.g. "biggest sales yet!" without actual figures or breakdown of Cataclysm vs previous expansions.
- And of course, the game was released right before Christmas during the largest sales period of the year.

All of these activities were planned for years in advance and deployed simultaneously to drive revenue as high as possible for the quarter. It will be very interesting the see the results. Their MMO revenue for this quarter should be at minimum in the $600 million mark based on analyst's predictions. (WoW currently makes about $270-300 million per quarter on average by the way.)

So, this "Farewell Northrend" video is making rounds on the internet. Not only that, but there are many other commemorative photos, webpages, and videos being created for "remembering" Outlands and Northrend.

To be clear: Nothing is happening to Outlands or Northrend.

There are just some minor aesthetic changes. The Shattering/Cataclysm changes only affect the 1-60 Old World areas. The 60-70 (Outlands) and 70-80 (WOTLK) leveling zones are unchanged.

But, this just goes to show you the power of hype and how it shapes your perception. =]

Unfortunately, this hype can lead to false expectations and resulting disappointment. The new changes are pretty cool, especially starting in some of the Capital Cities. But, once you get over the initial novelty of the new cities and do some exploring - you'll realize that not a lot has changed in the 1-60 zones.

If you've ever played "god games" before, you'll know what I mean. Everything looks pretty much the same, but it's like the developers just dropped in some trees and grass here-and-there, shoveled out some trenches, threw in some water, and reshaped some of the mountains. Once the geography was changed, it was just a matter of dropping in some new quest givers and NPCs.

For the new 80-85 leveling experience, don't set your expectations too high. I think the new zones are awesome, but please just ignore the hype as it will give you a false impression of what to expect. You might not remember this, but a lot of people complained about the new WOTLK leveling zones (ie, it was "too small"), but keep in mind that the new Cataclysm 80-85 zones are even smaller.

The original WoW had 2,600 quests (1-60), BC had 2,700 quests (60-70), WOTLK had 2,350 quests (70-80), and Cataclysm has just under 1,000 quests (80-85). (Note: 80-85 is supposed to take the same amount of time as 70-80 leveling.)

Although the number of quests isn't really a fair comparison of size, it does give you a pretty good idea of what to expect. =]

Cataclysm was more designed for the newbies and for veteran players who wanted to create new characters. It's a way to keep people playing longer, and encourages players to invite friends to play with them. Previously, many people didn't want to start playing WoW because of the sheer number of high-level characters and how far ahead everyone was - Cataclysm is a way to start players on an even ground and to bring in more new customers.

In regards to any New Realms, we won't know for sure until around Dec. 3-6. Currently, subscriptions counts don't warrant the creation of new realms and even with 1-2 million new players, it still wouldn't warrant new realms.

However, if Blizzard makes an announcement that "new realms are required to meet the demands of new players" - it sure would make their investors happy. =]

They might even wait until 1-2 months after launch to make it look like new realms were never actually planned and that they had to "suddenly" purchase and build out new servers and realms to meet the explosive growth. Realistically though, the new realms are probably ready right now and the servers were prepared months ago.

One of the biggest complaints that WoW users have are the extremely long queue times for Battlegrounds and Dungeons, and the always present shortage of sufficient Tanks and Healers.

With those most recent changes to Wintergrasp too, things are even worse now (there are heated arguments on the forums at the moment) and Blizzard may just have to revert back to the tenacity method until they can find a more suitable solution.

Note: Speaking of WoW Forums, I've still been monitoring them for Account Hack issues over the past several months and there has been a significant drop. It's absolutely nothing like back in June/July during that explosion of hacked and re-enabled/locked accounts.

Additional Note: Tenacity was pretty awesome actually.. sure the Horde were able to complete all 5 WG quests for a total of ~80 honor points - but I was able to complete 4 of the 5 quests and also one-shot Horde with my Arcane Mage. (Hell, even my Hunter dealt 20k white damage with melee swings.) Horde would get maybe 0.1 to 0.25 honor per kill, but I would get the full 3 honor points every 3 seconds or so. At the end of every match, I would get a minimum of 300 honor points from kills alone plus ~64 honor for the weeklies. Not bad for 15-20 minutes of work!

So yeah.. tenacity was great. In all of my experience over the past couple years, it's clear that WG losses were more attributed to failed organization and strategy then anything else. Much like AV premades, if you have good communication and players listening to you (even with bad gear), a win is very easily obtainable.

There is a SOLUTION however to all of these problems (e.g. tank/healer shortage, long queue times, and BG imbalances):

1. Cross-Faction Dungeons (Horde and Alliance together)
2. Cross-Faction Battlegrounds (Horde and Alliance on the same PVP team)
3. New Dungeon Mechanics

This solution will of course stir up some anger from the hardcore role players, but consider this:

- there are ways of doing this so that it fits in with the "lore" and updates to "historical facts" are made up all of the time
- you can already fight side-by-side with opposite faction players and NPCs
- NPCs from opposing factions also fight side-by-side against common enemies
- Horde & Alliance have worked together many times (hell, their leaders have even met with each other and sipped tea together at peace summits and various events)
- both Horde & Alliance have MANY common enemies and fight them in the same dungeons already
- they have also worked together in major wars and battles
- both Horde & Alliance are both members of the same "neutral" factions so they work together constantly for the same common goal
- both Horde & Alliance worked together (or cannot even attack each other) within the same specific zones/areas even when they're members of different factions
- there are a whole TON of factions that you can belong to where both Horde & Alliance work together
- there are PVE realms where you can't even attack them anyways (even though you should be able to and you're "supposed to")
- and there's so much lore out of whack already.. so who really cares?

Anything can work, you just need a proper justification.

Cross-Faction Dungeons

This one is easy. Allow the Dungeon Finder to group both Horde and Alliance together, and/or create a neutral meeting ground where PUGs can be grouped together for non-Dungeon Finder available instances.

In virtually all dungeons, both Horde & Alliance are already fighting the exact same common enemy anyways - and both factions have worked together many times to fight common enemies or for different goals. So this shouldn't be much of a stretch.

If you want a role-playing excuse to group them together, a series of quests can be created where a player is "magically transformed" visually into a member of of the opposing faction for the purpose of gathering information or completing a side-quest that requires Horde's help without their knowledge. CoT already does this where Horde players are visually changed into Alliance and fight side-by-side with the Alliance.

Also, players wouldn't even be able to tell that they were previously Horde/Alliance unless they actually tell them. (It's that good of a disguise!) =]

Justification: Fighting a common enemy under the banner of a neutral faction's orders.

Cross-Faction Battlegrounds

This one is a little more tricky.

So.. why would opposing factions help each other out in PVP? Why, for Secret Intelligence Gathering Missions of course!

Repeatable Quests or Quest Chains can be created where players are disguised and therefore fight with opposing factions (to blend in and avoid "blowing their cover") during various battles. At the end of a battle (and if certain requirements are met), they can get certain rewards. This would definitely put SI:7 Stormwind Intelligence to some good use! This has also happened (and still does happen) in real life, so it's a very reasonable excuse.

Now if "cheating" is a concern, Blizzard already has several methods in place already to prevent this. AFK Reporting (for those who aren't fighting - but the purpose of joining BGs is for the accumulation of honor points anyways), random cross-realm queuing, chances of joining friends within the same BG is low, and inability to communicate with "opposing factions" in the same BG.

For those that really want to get away with cheating (ie, sending troop movement information), they can already do it anyways under the current approach. That sort of information is pretty useless anyways, especially in the smaller BGs.

As it stands, it would be very difficult and even non-productive for you (ie, no honor) to try and sabotage your own temporary faction. It's almost impossible too, since your real friends won't recognize you and they will attack you on sight! Although, sabotage does open up some interesting possibilities for BG gameplay.. and maybe it could be highly useful for new "Spy Vs Spy" Battleground designs. =]

One other option is just to make Battlegrounds less about Horde vs Alliance and more about Team A vs Team B.. but it's not as fun. =]

This approach is definitely a very smooth way of balancing teams so that you won't have the "10 Alliance versus 6 Horde" problem in WSG preceded by 30-50 minute wait times anymore. Plus, since players would be "in disguise", it allows VOA to be open to both factions after WG ends regardless of the winner. (This was actually one of the original reasons for the WG changes.. one faction would always be losing, and they could hardly ever get into VOA. Big complaints.)

Justification: You're a spy gathering secret intelligence information, so you need to fit in under orders from your King or Warchief. All of their deaths will be a necessary evil so that you can gather information of the utmost importance.

New Dungeon Mechanics for Tank/Healer Shortages

This is a pretty fun approach, but a little more challenging to implement. I'm going to focus on 5-man dungeons (and the Dungeon Finder), but these new methods could certainly be used for raids with some tweaks.

Option 1 is to create new dungeons (or modify existing) that break out of the 6-year old mold (ie, the fixed ratio of DPS/Heals/Tanking) that has obviously been creating a lot of issues related to player availability and time, but has never been solved.

If there were dungeons for example that attract 100% DPS class groups, it would significantly cut down on queue times for other DPS playeres who are queued for normal dungeons. Such examples would include dungeons that require no healing and instead involve puzzles and/or DPS combat alone, or dungeons with very little healing required, no tanking, but a completely timed instance that requires 5 DPS players to complete successfully.

There are many clever ways to build dungeons with these designs in mind, boss AND mob mechanic changes, there could even be NPC Tanks, NPC Healers, dungeons that require no DPS but rather all crowd control in a timed environment to win, or healing "games" where DPS players constantly need to run back and forth to a certain item or area.

This course of action no longer follows the classic Tank & Spank approach and unfortunately Blizzard might be discouraged from doing this since the more time a player waits in queue, the longer they play, and the more money they ultimately make. If they are more concerned about the players themselves however, you should see innovative approaches like this in the future.

Option 2 is pretty cool. Have a fun (and possibly long) quest chain where any class can summon a NPC that "magically transforms" them into a temporary class for (specific?) 5-man dungeons. Or maybe it can be available within the dungeons themselves, where the player temporarily inhabits a body or vehicle with the abilities that are missing from the group.

For example, a DPS class can be converted into a Healing/Tanking class by way of conjured weapons and gear that either meet minimum requirements for the dungeon difficulty OR they match in similarity to the player's existing iLvl gear. It would just be a temporary conversion for that instance only. Another example is to have more "vehicles" in dungeons what have certain purposes (much like the starting Ulduar fight), like support, healing or tanking.

I hate using this term, but Blizzard really needs to start thinking outside the box. There's too little innovation in dungeons and Cataclysm is no different (other than that they're bringing back crowd control.) There are many reasonable ways to combat priest/tank shortages and long wait times, and these are some good examples of changes that can make the game more enjoyable, more optional, more fun, and very different to combat boredom.

Posting Date: March 26, 2011

As you all are aware, yesterday is when THQ's highly anticipated tactical shooter "HOMEFRONT" game was released for the PS3 and XBOX 360. News sites are reporting that over 4 million copies of the game have been sold so far, making the game a highly successful venture for the company and opening up future growth with this new intellectual property.

However, last year in November of 2010, THQ CEO Brian Farrell told the BMO Capital Markets conference that, in a nutshell, video games need to be cheaper. Here are some old posts from 5 months ago as a helpful reminder: Eurogamer, Gamasutra and VG247.

THQ planned on an "alternative business model for retail games" and instead wanted to launch at lower price points and selling more incremental content later. "That's where the industry is headed", said Brian Farrell. Launching at $60 for example was considered too expensive and "keeping people out", however a mass market-friendly price of $40 would do much better.

So how much did Homefront retail for? That's right: $59.99 USD.

I still don't know what the PC version will cost (since it was pushed back as you're aware) but we should know within the next few months.

tl;dr; THQ said games are too expensive, then sold a game that was too expensive.

In other news, THQ is planning a "United Kingdom" expansion pack which will be "released sometime next year." The official title of the expansion pack has not been decided as of yet. THQ representatives also hinted at a Zombie DLC planned sometime within the next few years (possibily influenced due to the massive success of AMC's "The Walking Dead" - and I hear there's also another new zombie-based TV series in development too!).

And finally, it's estimated that Blizzard's Cataclysm expansion pack sold a "record number" of just under 3 million sales within the first month, making Cataclysm "the most successful fantasy expansion pack in 2010" according to Blizzard's latest news release.

Anyhow.. I'm heading back into Cataclysm. I heard there's a major nerf coming down the pipe that's affecting most of the classes. It was fun while it latest.. =[

Here's a summary of some of the more interesting 4.0.1 patch changes.

I'll keep updating the list as I learn more.

- All characters can toggle on & off all Minimap options. For example, you can see Mining, Fish, and Herb nodes all at once now. (Just turn each option on.)
- Hunters can also now track Beasts, Humanoids, Hidden, Elementals, Demons, etc all at once. It's pretty awesome.
- Characters can now collect XP from mining Herbs and Ores. It's a great way to level new characters especially now that you can see both node types.
- Discarded PVP gear can be sold or disenchanted.
- Several other items that previously couldn't be disenchanted can now be.
- Tailoring Specializations have been removed permanently.
- Leatherworking Specializations have been removed, however it's currently bugged and you can re-learn the specializations from the quest givers.
- Transmutation cooldowns reduced (significantly) to 4 hours.
- You can pickup Master Riding (310% mount speed) for 5000G. Don't bother trying to fly in Old World yet, that will only happen after Cataclysm.
- New scaling spells & skills have made leveling much faster and most low lever characters quite overpowered. Health and mana regeneration is significantly increased as well.
- Older (Level 70) Heroic dungeons have been tweaked, making mobs hitting a lot harder. I used to solo Kara quite easily, but it's become a lot more difficult now.
- NPC that have quests available (or are part of active quest chains) now show text above their heads identifying them. It makes it much easier to find "points of interest". This was actually a very subtle, but extremely useful update and I liked it a lot.
- I like the new Thorns spell. Instead of a buff, it's an instant cast defense spell that tears apart melee characters. Works great on Rogues. =]
- Lockpicking now scales with your level. All 80 Rogues automatically have 400 LP skill. Since all skills have been removed, weapon training is no longer required and everyone always has full weapon training. Goodbye "Knuckle Sandwich" Achievement.
- Many Hunter Pets now have unique abilities that can benefit the entire raid. Right now, you can swap in-and-out 4 different pets depending on your needs. The 5th pet will be available when Cataclysm is released. Low level pets also now auto-level to 3 levels below you instead of 5.
- Level 20's can now move at 100% mount speed. All mounts now scale with their riding skill.
- Most PVP Daily Quests now no longer provide Honor Points but rather gold. I think only the Venture Coin quests down by the shoreline provide Honor Points now - but it's very little and not worth the trouble.
- No more vellums, it's all just one new all-purpose Enchanting Vellum for armor/weapons at all levels. Makes things much easier.
- Power PC, Windows 98, and Windows 2000 users will no longer be able to play WoW.
- Flight paths are shortened, and don't make as many stops any more.
- There are a couple minor pre-Cataclyms events going on (other than the earthquakes). There are new conversations taking place in Thrall's chambers for example, and Emissaries should be arriving in cities soon for the new elemental invasion quests.
- Honor Points and Justice Points can be converted into each other, however it hasn't been implemented yet. I think it's pretty cool that you can PVP for points, and then exchange them for Raid PVE gear. Here's the original post from back in April.

We do plan to have a way to convert Honor points (PvP) into Justice points (PvE), and vice versa, at a loss. The conversions will be possible, but it won't be a 1:1 rate, and you'll have fewer points after the conversion process. We won't allow the higher tiers to be exchanged for each other, however.

- Auction Posts and Cancelling now have a secondary confirmation request. It's a big annoyance, and there were plenty of other options available if their reason was to prevent automated auction posting. The thing is - it's automated.. they just need to add an extra step to their automation. So, all this does is hurt legitimate users (who now need to spend a lot more time in the AH) and I'm pretty sure they weren't complaining about accidental auction posts being such a huge problem or that they requested these new features. "Hey Blizzard! Can you make it first ask 'Are you really sure?' than ask again 'Are you really really sure?'. That sounds like a great feature that everyone will love!"
- There are also rumors of Shaman Tanking being possible in the future (Plate armor upgrades too.) I think it would be pretty cool for a new tanking class. All of the tanking classes are MELEE, but what about a SPELL CASTING TANK? That would just be cool.

Blizzard finally made an official announcement about what will be happening in 4.0.3 regarding those unique ZG mounts and items.

To summarize: the [Swift Zulian Tiger], [Swift Razzashi Raptor], and [Razzashi Hatchling] are being "removed" because the Raid is being converted into a low-level questing zone.

However, Blizzard also added "Although we have no current plans to introduce new ways to obtain the Zul'Gurub mounts, pets, and the tribute mounts, they may return should we find a place where they fit in the future."

While everyone on the WoW forums and websites were claiming that the mounts would be "gone for good" (and to farm ZG as soon as possible), I heard information to the contrary from my inside sources. I had actually predicted this in a post I made last month. =]

Also, although their statement says "no current plans", Blizzard actually does have plans (or should I say "options that they are considering"). The "original mounts" with their "original achievements" will be gone but the mounts will be making a reappearance (as explained earlier) either through drops, rewards (eg Archaeology), the Pet Store, or other ways.

The Pet Store definitely has a very high probability. =]

Also, a little birdie tells me that a mount similar to the [Black Qiraji Battle Tank] will be making an appearance in Cataclysm as well. My sources weren't as certain on the new scarab mount as they were on the ZG mounts, however.

Many readers here were interested in knowing what happens to players if they don't have the Cataclysm expansion pack and what to expect.

There's no phasing or anything like that (although it would have been cool) that will split up Cataclysm vs Non-Cata players.

The Cataclysm change will affect everyone in the Old World. Meaning cosmetic changes, new quests, new cities, skill/talent changes, etc.

So you will see everything that Cataclysm players see. You just won't have access to the new zones, you'll be level capped to whatever expansion pack you have (or don't have), and you won't be able to create Goblins/Worgens although you can still party with them. Talents, spells, abilities, glyphs, gear will all still be available to you just like everyone else at the same level.

Summary of Changes

- Outlands will NOT be changed.
- Northrend will have MINOR cosmetic changes (ie, stuff they've always wanted to fix).
- Mobs have not been deleted, some have just been relocated and others haven't moved at all.
- There's no point in farming certain mob (rare) drops, since they'll all be back in Cataclysm.
- Some hard-to-get drops have been moved to rare elites, making it easier for players.
- A few cities/towns have been destroyed, and new ones have popped up elsewhere to replace.
- No new graphics changes or engine improvements, except for water textures.
- No new audio changes or improvements.

There's been a lot of hype built around Cataclysm - ie, EXPECT MAJOR CHANGES, COMPLETE DEVASTATION, A NEW WORLD, THE FACE OF AZEROTH SHALL BE CHANGED FOREVER!

But if you actually believe the hype, you'll be setting yourself up for some major disappointment.

For the most part, there hasn't been a lot of changes to the Old World. Blizzard designers literally took all of the assets and models from WOTLK and drag-and-dropped them into the Old World. Some land masses have been shifted up-and-down, quests have been changed (there are some new fun ones here and there), and there are new "familiar looking" mobs/NPCs (ie, same mobs as in Northrend, with different colored textures). That's really about it.

All of the cool new stuff is in the new 80-85 zones and dungeons - but keep in mind that the NEW content is less than half the size of WOTLK.

Since the new areas and content are so small compared to past expansion packs, Blizzard is pretty much counting on most players creating new toons and to experience all that the Old World has to offer. Which is why adding new realms is so important, and why I'm still expecting new realms to be created (while everyone else is saying they won't be.)

Total Number of Quests in WoW vs TBC vs WOTLK vs CATA?

Original WoW Quests Added: 2,600
Burning Crusade Quests Added: 2,700
Wrath of the Lich King Quests Added: 2,350
Cataclysm Quests Added: 3,000

Note: 1,000 of those quests will be in the 80-85 zones, while the remaining 2,000 are in the redesigned old world areas.

Of those 2,000 quests, however, many of them are actually based on or redesigned from old quests. So "3,000 new quests" is a little bit of an overstatement.. it's probably closer to max. 2000 "new" quests.

Another Note: This is a little piece of historical trivia I guess. Back in 2004, Jeff Kaplan stated that they originally planned 600 total quests for World of Warcraft. It grew to 1350 shortly after, and continued to grow some more (as seen above.)

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In my humble opinion, the December 7 release date is still too soon. There are so many changes that still need to be made in the Cataclysm Beta (that still haven't been fixed) and I'm fully expecting these bugs (and overpowered NPCs, boss mechanics, lack of innovation) to be released in retail.

Anyhow.. here are some videos demonstrating the "DRAMATIC CHANGES" made in Cataclysm, I think they'll help put things into perspective for you:

Tirisfal Glades & Silverpine Forest Flythrough



Eastern Plaguelands & Western Plaguelands



Wetlands, Loch Modan & Badlands Flythrough



Elwynn Forest



Swamp of Sorrows & Blasted Lands



As you can see for yourself, there are very little changes.

It might just be me, but I have a different eye for these sort of things. Coming from a programming & game design background, I see 3D objects, textures and level design different from average players. While in the beta, none of the changes have impressed me at all.. there's nothing really new or cool, and all of the content from WOTLK was just copied over using Blizzard's internal (world) design tools.

When Cataclysm was first announced, I was hoping for complete underwater cities and questing zones (massive areas all underwater), a completely reshaped Azeroth, new underwater races (that you could create yourself), floating cities, class-specific quests and chains (like the "Rogue Guilds" they were initially planning for WoW Classic), new mobs, removed mobs, and most importantly an improved graphics engine. But none of that happened.

Maybe it's just me, but I'll get confirmation on my opinion once retail hits and more players can voice their own opinions. =]

I suspect there's going to be a lot of disappointment though..

One of the biggest problems with new expansion packs, is that it makes all previous dungeons completely useless.

When TBC came out, Old World dungeons/raids were no longer visited. When WOTLK came out, TBC dungeons/raids were no longer visited. And when Cataclysm comes out, no one will be visiting WOTLK/TBC dungeons any more.

A ton of hard work went into the design of these instances, it's a complete shame that they're no longer experienced.

Sure, they're fun for nostalgia, power leveling with help from high levels, and for twink gear - but let's be honest: they're complete ghost towns. When was the last time you saw "LFG RFK", "LFG ramps", or "LFG seth" in chat or tried to join a group using the Dungeon Finder?

Everyone skips old dungeons for leveling, because it's much faster just to quest or AOE grind - and the dungeon gear is a waste of time (if you can even find a party to help you out).

Cataclym will be introducing 6 new level 80-85 dungeons and 2 remade old instances. It's nice that they've remade a couple old instances but they still have the same problem. And, there are other ways to fix this issue rather than just releasing new dungeons each exp. pack or creating revised point systems (e.g., Justice/Hero/Valor points, etc.)

Here's the solution: make all dungeons scalable to the player's level.

There can still be normal (original non-scaled) dungeons, heroic dungeons (special tailored instances with slight changes to drops and boss mechanics), and then scalable dungeons. They could be renamed to "Original, Normal (scaled), and Heroic".

Boss mechanics in the new scaled dungeons will not even need to be changed, but it would still require algorithms to scale mobs and items drops. (I hear Guild Wars 2 will be introducing randomly generated loot which will be very interesting to see how well it works.)

The obvious issue is, "Well if you just scale mobs, then there's no challenge." Let's be honest.. there's not really a lot of creativity in any of the current dungeons nor is there any innovation in the new Cataclysm dungeons/raids. It's always the same tank-and-spank strategy over and over, with a couple little movement or time-based DPS games sprinkled in here and there. There's nothing clever about it.

With scaled gear, you can still have the same old equipment look (with or without a slightly different name) but with different stats scaled for the player. They've already been doing this experimentation with heirlooms, so it shouldn't be that hard to do it with old instance drops.

Just like player classes, dungeons should also have a "paper, rock, scissors" attitude. If you want players to visit old dungeons, give them a reason. For example, players can visit old dungeons to collect lower tiered gear that are required for special mechanics in higher-tiered instances. (Like collecting fire resistance gear for other instances - make it optional.)

Dungeon gear could be scaled for the player, just like quest gear (at the same level) is made available. Because of the challenges involved, there could also be small chances that more powerful gear stats would be dropped. There could also be special gear (for certain classes) dropped only in certain dungeons, encouraging players to try and find groups to visit specific old world instances. This would all be optional too - making it easier for newbies to get geared up for higher level raids.

Mandatory dungeon quests, however, should not be making a return. =]

So, here are some of the benefits with this new approach:
- Get players to visit old dungeons again, have fun, free up space, get geared up properly, and give players more options.
- Introducing drops for specific classes encourages them to find groups or give them a reason to return to old instances.
- Make it fun for players to collect special gear that makes it easier to survive other high-level encounters.
- New gear aesthetics not required. This gives players a wide variety of equipment "looks" (with similar stats) to prevent everyone from looking the exact same in capital cities.

Blizzard's approach is to simplify everything - removing tokens, emblems, badges, marks, coins, shards, etc. and just making 2 point systems for PVE and 2 point systems for PVP. But this is still only applicable for level 85's in the long run. Something must be done for players between 1-85 who want to do something different.

An alternative option is to allow players to collect Hero/Valor points from old dungeons, but a smaller amount. Level 85 dungeons will give large amounts of hero points for example, but visiting a level 70 dungeon or raid will give you a less amount. But the points can still be used for purchasing equipment at your current level or level 85 when you reach it. This would encourage level 85's to still visit (or solo) old world dungeons for points.

I have a feeling that we'll still be stuck in the same cycle though.. new expansion pack = all previous instances abandoned.

This is actually more of an addendum to "Part 2".

In Part 2, I had discussed how there are many items, pets, and recipes that are Faction Exclusive (can only be obtained by one faction), and how they can sell very well on the other side. I forgot to list one interesting item that you can transfer through the Neutral AH from the Horde side to Alliance that's highly valuable.

To Horde players, it's trash. But to the Alliance, it's pure gold. =]

I'm referring to the [Sleeveless T-Shirt]

What most players don't know is that the [Sleeveless T-Shirt] only drops from Alliance bodies in Alterac Valley, so it's impossible for Alliance players to obtain this item unless it's through the Neutral Auction House.

They're cool looking outfits and their description is priceless. You can actually sell them for 50-100G on the Alliance auction house. Or just throw them up onto the Neutral AH for a reduced price. =]


Right now, the gold markets seem to be favoring Glyphs and Recipes/Pets (cross-faction trading works very well), but disenchants aren't selling for very much anymore. But then again, it's server dependent.

Here are some other interesting items that can be sold Cross-Faction.

1. The [Black Tabby] pet can only be obtained by the Horde, killing the Dalaran Spellscribe in the Alliance-friendly village Ambermill. The silver elite spawns quite a bit at 3 different locations (Humanoid Tracking is recommended so that you can login/logout and just quickly scan the area for the Spellscribe) throughout the day, but the Pet drop rate is around 20%. It'll easily sell for 700-1000G on the Alliance AH.

What's nice about the other NPCs in Ambermill is that they drop other rate items that can only be obtained by Horde. Such as "Channeler's Staff", "Dalaran Wizard's Robe", and "Jewel-Encrusted Sash". Alliance don't really know how rare they are (and that the Robe is required to look like a Dalaran Wizard) so your best bet is to advertise in Alliance trade chat. I sell the Robes for 75G each, and the Sash/Staff for 20-30G a piece. Their drop rates are very high, which is nice.

2. [Ripped Ogre Loincloth]

This item can only be obtained by Horde when looting the Gordunni Dirt Mounds (Gordunni Cobalt quest in Feralas). They look awesome, very rare on Alliance side, and I sell for 75G each.

-----------

Old World items are also selling very well right now, but they won't be as soon as Cataclysm hits. On my server for example, here's how much they sell for:

Adamantite - 60G/stack
Fel Iron Bars - 70G/stack
Goldthorn - 80G/stack
Purple Lotus - 80G/stack
Gromsblood - 80G/stack
Rugged Leather - 50G/stack
Wool Cloth - 30G/stack

Botters are still foolishly collecting WOTLK ores (ie, Saronite) and have no idea how well Fel Iron and other Old World items are selling. I report bots all of the time in WOTLK zones, but never see any in Outlands surprisingly.

Anyhow, in preparation I had stockpiled all of these items during the WOTLK launch (and prior to) when everyone was running new DKs. I filled up several Guild Bank Tabs with these items, and just waited for 4-6 months to sell them. I had paid about 5-10G per stack for most of these items and resold them at significantly higher prices.

With Cataclysm approaching, though, I would recommend that you sell all Old World items that you have right now and then buy them out again when everyone is leveling their fresh toons (only to resell them again 4 months down the road.) If you have the guild/bank space that is. =]

Speaking of Old World items, don't worry too much about farming the [Swift Zulian Tiger] either if you just want the cool looking mount. Everyone is saying "The Swift Zulian Tiger is gone forever! Farm them now while you still can!". However, according to my trusted sources it will actually be back in Cataclysm but much easier to obtain (the "Insane" title will also be available in Cataclysm but easier to get as well) with the Zul'Gurub zone rebuild and new quests. (The mount will still be a drop, reward, or an exalted reputation purchase - it's not exactly clear yet.) The achievement won't be the same though, only those who got the "original" will have that special mount and achievement, but there will be a new mount with the same look and texture.

Blizzard hasn't said anything official on the matter, but most players are assuming that new realms will not be created in anticipation of World of Warcraft's next expansion pack.

The following was even posted by a Community MVP on the WoW Forums:

However, those non-Blizzard employees aren't exactly known for telling the truth or even being aware of simple activities that take place behind the scenes at Blizzard.

As of right now, every post I have been able to find on the matter (official and unofficial forums) claims that "word on the street" is that no new servers will be opened. So that's the belief of most WoW players. I can understand the logic: there's no growth, so why would they increase the number of realms?

But, the problem is that most players base their decision on declining subscription figures and subsequently mistake servers with realms.

Each realm is just a virtual object operated by a cluster of servers. Some realms utilize more servers than others, and information on multiple realms is actually stored on the same servers. There are a ton of processes and activities taking place on servers that in fact manage multiple realms.

It would be very easy to create a new realm (it's just a data object) without actually changing the quantity of servers.

New Realms ≠ New Purchases or Servers

Blizzard CEO Mike Morhaime even stated that there was no growth from December 2008 to February 2010.

To be clear, there was no player growth when WOTLK launched however Blizzard still created 12 new realms in the US.

Nov/08 - Dawnbringer
Nov/08 - Drak'Tharon
Nov/08 - Fizzcrank
Nov/08 - Galakrond
Nov/08 - Grizzly Hills
Nov/08 - Gundrak
Nov/08 - Saurfang
Jan/09 - Borean Tundra
Jan/09 - Garrosh
Jan/09 - Wyrmrest Accord
Jan/09 - Winterhoof
Mar/09 - Nesingwary

At the time, player distribution across the realms was even the same as it now. (i.e. 50-60% of servers half full, and an even split between high population and low population servers.)

Keep in mind that each "realm" also has it's own set of rules. A "high population" on one realm does not necessarily mean the same quantity of users on another realm. It all depends on server load, distribution, and how it's configured. Why leave multiple servers idling when their processing power can be used to support the load of other realms?

For example, let's say each realm can only support a maximum of 6,000 players on each faction. The realm never even hits half that amount (of players) during peak times. So, then you just create a new realm, split up the servers managing the one realm into two, now suddenly you have 2 realms without increasing the number of servers. And both servers can be "upgraded" from low population to medium/high population each. If the servers start to get stretched, additional servers (running low load) can be simply added to this cluster to increase number of players. Or an existing realm can just be opened up to free transfers. (This is just an example and not exactly what happens. There are actually hundreds of servers/blades involved. From a server administration perspective though, it's easy to manage and coordinate.) =]

Why would Blizzard even care about opening new realms?

For the same reason they did it for Wrath of the Lich King.

We know that there was no actual player growth at the time, and servers weren't over capacity with players (in fact about 50% of the realms were at half capacity), so why did they create new realms?

Company Perception and Reputation Management:

Making an announcement that you have to create new realms for "unexpected growth" or "rapidly increasing user base" or "significant number of sales" gives the impression of player growth. Even if you just announce that new servers "need to be added" it gives the perception that player counts are growing.

Investors, share holders, managers, and players love to hear that. It reinstates confidence in the company. =]

Blizzard also wants to be known as the #1 provider of the best MMORPG in the world. So you need to control the perception of your company and give the impression of constant growth and more profits. (Even though Quarterly Reports show hardly any gains at all, and actual player counts are really about half of "active subscribers".)

It Makes The Players Happy:

It's good for public relations too. Players want new realms to be created, so that they can create characters from scratch and try to get ahead of the others.

There's also the fear of high levels harassing the new low level characters. Remember all of the 70-80's hanging around Outlands waiting for the freshly made Death Knights to step through the portal? That same fear exists now. Except now, it's level 80-85's that can fly well overhead hunting Level 20's and finding them very quickly. With new realms, at least the option is available to start brand new just like everyone else.

There's also nothing worse than joining a server when everyone is already Level 80, there's no low-to-mid level advancement and all of the zones are empty.

Throw on your tinfoil hats! New realms might actually mean reduced servers and player counts.

Something interesting occurred to me while I was researching this. I really have no idea if this happens or not, but it's a possibility and I'm just throwing it out there. =]

Because the exact number of server-to-realm ratio has never been announced, and the fact that servers manage multiple "parts" of different realms, it's entirely possible to reduce the physical number of servers (because of declining players) but also create new realms with the added bonus of increasing customer/investor confidence.

As new realms open, all that is required is changing the internal definition of what a Low, Medium, or High population server implies. A high population could mean 10,000 concurrent users but it could just as easily mean 8,000 concurrent users.

People will get dispersed as realms are split up, but because of the large size of World of Warcraft - would anyone even notice? Factions all gather together at single locations anyways and if realms are split up, users would just assume that they see less players while questing because the world is so vast and they could be anywhere.

If it ever became an issue ("gasp! the users are starting to notice"), all that's required is opening up free transfers to the realm. =]

So basically, there shouldn't be any new realms based on WoW's growth, but it makes logical sense to launch new realms just like they did for WOTLK (which was in a similar circumstance, and users ALSO said there wouldn't be new realms at the time.) Of course, now that this information is public and Blizzard knows-that-you-know.. who knows? =]

In 2008, Vaneras wrote:
"The decision of whether or not to open a new realm is entirely based on the population size on existing realms, which is something that we are continuously monitoring. We will of course open new realms if and when it is needed :-)"

In 2008, Nethaera wrote:
"New realms are released as we feel they are necessary and we don't normally announce them ahead of time. I can't answer any of the above since they are all contingent on timing based need. If we end up needing more realms, we'll create them based for the specific purpose they need to fill."

In 2008 and 3 days before release, Nethaera wrote:
"It's too early to say whether these will be necessary or not."

In 2010, Crepe wrote:
"As always, new realm are opened due to population issues. If you wish new realms, you need to find 200,000 of your closest friends to subscribe."

In 2010, Crepe wrote:
"New realms are put up when population needs require them. We won't know until they go up."

If Mekkatorque was here, he'd say the chances of new realms being opened are less than 12.7%. =]

Other than that, the launch of Cataclysm is just a few months away (first week of December). Hope you all have your orders in!

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FYI - Another official posting on the WoW Forums:

Pretty much everyone is saying that there will NOT be any new realms due to low subscription numbers. I like to swim against the current though. So basically, there shouldn't be any new realms created, but it still might happen on launch day or within a couple months after. WOTLK for example launched in November, and new servers opened in January and then March. There's a good chance you'll see something like "Due to the unanticipated number of new players - we need to open up new realms!" at least by March of next year (especially after Christmas sales). What a great way to please the investors or give the impression of massive growth though, even if there is none. =]