Q3 2011 Conference

A copy of the transcript can be found here.

Mike Morhaime stated that WoW "finished the quarter with 10.3 million active subscribers worldwide", so that would be subscribers as of September 30, 2011 as opposed to right now. This also confirms that this older post now holds true: even after the Cataclysm launch in China during this quarter, the 4.2 content launch, and the simultaneous WoW Starter Edition launch, they still lost a considerable number of subscribers (11.4M to 11.1M to 10.3M). Remember too that these are "Active Subscribers" which represent a significantly larger of real players (vanity figures are common in the industry).

Mike Morhaime also said,

While the majority of these declines are coming from the East, World of Warcraft continues to be one of the most popular online games in China and remains by far the most popular subscription-based MMO in the world.

I guess, I can say this, the majority of the declines were in the East. China still represents more than half of our global player base and historically, December has been a very good month for subscriber trends.

Note that the majority of the decline was from China, but China also makes up the majority of subscribers. So, it makes sense that if subscribers dropped worldwide, that the majority on average was from China. :)

"Active Subscribers" in China are even more skewed in terms of real players, and if there are declines in China, it is much more representative of a larger player decline than in NA or EU. (China subscriber counts include IGR players and active prepaid cards.)

It's also of interesting note that this blog has claimed many times that Chinese WoW players make up 50% (or higher) of total WoW subscribership. It was based on research, speculation and predictive analysis of past announcements.. however it was met with great hostility and disbelief. There were many "here's your tin foil hat" comments in response to the claim that Chinese gamers made up 50% of subscribers. Finally, though, there's now something official on the subject from Blizzard. And consider this, if Chinese players make up more than 50% of total players, then you can use Chinese figures to determine real players as opposed to subscribers. NetEase, for example, has actually released real player figures.. which is something that has never done in NA or EU. :) This Blizzard comment has actually confirmed what TOD (and myself) have been writing about for a long time in regards to "Subscribers".

Q3 2011 - Live Stream Viewers

So, if you remember this post, I was expecting Mike Morhaime to talk about virtual ticket paid viewers (e.g. "make note of Mike Morhaime's special wording of Virtual Ticket Live Stream viewer counts.")

My prediction was based on all past trends:

1. Blizzcon 2009: Mike said "more than 50,000" live via Pay Per View.
2. Q3 2009 Report: Mike said "tens of thousands on Pay Per View."
3. Blizzcon 2010: Mike said "more than 100,000" paid DirecTV customers.
4. Q3 2010 Report: Mike said "95,000 paid viewers following along via DirecTV."
5. Blizzcon 2011: Mike said "more than 60,000" DirecTV viewers.
6. Q3 2011 Report: SUDDEN CHANGE!

I was really hoping this would happen. The one thing you'll learn about Mike is that he's very consistent and detail oriented. He now says, "more than 1 million online viewers." It looks like Mike might be a reader here after all. :)

Q3 2011 - RMAH and Q&A

I also mentioned last week about the whole PayPal/Battle.net integration. According to Mike, they'll be testing the real money systems very soon.

We've also been testing the gold auction house functionality through the Beta and are gearing up to test the real money systems very soon.

This will just be for beta members.. and it will probably be for the Battle.net credit system only. Blizzard will give beta members a certain amount of credits, for example, to practice using in the in-game RMAH. For the PayPal aspect (e.g. real money), that part will probably be done by employees working in conjunction with PayPal. As for integration and instructions for all other gamers, that announcement should go out one or two months before retail/digital.

During the Q&A portion of the call, Mike sure was put on the spot. Almost all of the Q&A questions were Blizzard related, which was unusual. Apparently, there's some concern about how well MoP was received. On a related note, check out the Mists of Pandaria Preview Trailer, and compare Likes/Dislikes to WOTLK and Cata. I've never seen anything like that before.

2012 Expectations

This isn't related to the Q3 call, and it was something that I have already been preparing so I figured it would fit nicely into this post.

I was digging around through old job posts looking for anything Titan related. One thing I found interesting, though, is that all references to those old Fraud Specialist and Fraud Manager positions have been completely wiped off the face of the internet. :)

It's was written about back in this post, and TOD had also backed it up with some Google results (1 2 3 4). They're all completely gone now and it's pretty interesting. Apparently the jobs were publicly available for a week or two, and then after it was posted it, it was suddenly removed from all websites (e.g. Blizzard and recruiting agencies/outsourcers) all at once. They were pulled even a month before the deadline. :)

(By the way, if you ever find references to those positions in old archival websites, let me know.)

Anyways, Blizzard is hiring for Summer 2012 internships. A whole ton of them. I think they'll probably receive more serious instructions, though, on keeping confidential information off of their resumes moving forwards. Interns are a pretty good resource for new discoveries. :)

This intern position in particular interested me:

"The strategic initiatives team focuses on broad initiatives that address company-wide or development-specific opportunities and challenges. Our projects range from strategic planning to organizational and / or operations initiatives to purely quantitative analyses. Our roles are as varied as our projects. We may support, research, consult on, or drive projects. Some past and present efforts include: business analysis and visioning for the D3 Auction House; the development leadership councils; the side projects program; quantitative and qualitative analysis of cross-company survey data; franchise development; assistance with BlizzNet (Blizzard Entertainment's internal intranet); email Mike and ask the execs; Blizzard Entertainment academy; and other initiatives aimed at helping fulfill the top development, business and organizational goals of the company."

It's interesting in that one of their first duties will be "business analysis and visioning for the D3 Auction House." They'll be hired during a time when D3 will be well underway, but they're still interested in future vision and expansion of the D3 Auction House. Blizzard is looking for fresh perspectives, new D3 RMAH features or services, and probably ways to leverage the D3 RMAH and apply to Titan (assuming the new business venture is successful).

Overhyping Titan?

I have also come to the conclusion that I might be overthinking Titan too much, and setting my expectations too high.

Paul Sams once noted, "We're confident in Titan. It's an awesome one." and "We're playing it already. It's a total ball to play." He was describing a prototype of course, which would still be backed with concept art and a strong vision.. but his wording of the game makes it seem like there's more action involved than the typical "turn based" combat experienced in WoW.

It's also what Blizzard has NOT been saying about the game that convinces me that Titan is being overhyped. They're not saying, "it takes gaming into a whole new direction" or "it's innovative, it's different and awesome". Every description of the game is the same as how they once described World of Warcraft.

Cameron Dayton's description of the game even portrayed a fixed history, philosophy, heroes, villains, and a main story line. This isn't a customizable or immense world shaping game, it's a standard MMORPG with combat (heroes/villains), new characters, and a new story to tell.

I don't think Titan will be taking gaming into any new direction. The "Next Gen" term is just referring to the graphics engine and really nothing else (except for maybe in-game revenue generators). There's also Titan transmedia at work.. since there are new colorful characters in this game, there will be novels, comic books, t-shirts, toys, mousepads, posters, etc.

And also interestingly, the development team has been focusing more on player and NPC design than "monsters" or "creatures".

I'm expecting that it will be a standard MMORPG/FPS like WOW, but targeting additional demographics. I'm inclined to support Daeity's earlier posts; modern setting, low scifi, low fantasy, a multiverse of environments, a large world full of users and NPCs (one server per region, everything can live in different countries, times, or locations in-game), and the storyline could be anywhere from modern wartorn countries, to parallel dimensions, to time travel, or maybe just a messed up Doctor Who story with multiple times existing at once.

In a massive world, with a large number of players and their own market place, it makes for a great opportunity to exploit D3's RMAH. D3 will make the decision, though, whether it will be implemented in Titan or not.

Future Predictions

And, for those watching trademark registrations,

• In 2012, about 3-4 months before Blizzcon you will see a registration for a strange name. It won't be Titan, but rather the D3 expansion pack. (Of course the name might be obvious, like "Heaven's Sin" or something.)
• During Blizzcon 2012, they'll announce the D3 expansion pack, there will be demos, a video, and 1 new class. New PVP features, and a new profession probably developed by the S.I.T. to further exploit RMAH usage and growth.
• Diablo 3 will also have new friend invite systems and "Scrolls of Resurrection", but they'll probably not be announced during Blizzcon.
• In 2013, D3 X1 will be released and WOW X5 will be announced (once again, trademarked shortly before Blizzcon.)
• In 2014, X5 released and assuming no more delays, the real Titan game name will be registered and demonstrated at Blizzcon. This is when everyone rushes to get domain names.
• The Titan trailer will be a mind blowing graphical festival of the eyes with a deep commanding voice narrating. Pants will be crapped, fans will spontaneously combust, and burly men will swoon. But it will just be another MMO with really cool graphics.
• After WoW X5, I think the development and delivery trend is going to change. They'll be very few and far between, and Blizzard will probably push their Digital Download platform, make the expansion packs smaller, and pretty much just turn them into DLC packs (instead of full blown expansion experiences).
• And, SC2: HOTS/LOTV fit somewhere up there too, but I think they're going to be delayed.

Blizzard reads all of this of course, and I'm the only site doing it. :)

* UPDATE: With Blizzcon 2012 being cancelled, I'll still keep the same timeline just without Blizzcon.

Looks like Blizzard is doing yet another archive of the entire site. :)

Daeity told me to expect this. Every once in a while, I'll see almost a thousand hits from 216.148.0.72 (Blizzard) viewing every single page in under 0.05 seconds each.

Typically, there's normal monitoring of certain posts, but every once in a while they'll use (what I assume) is a webpage downloader app to capture the full blog, check it for leaks, keep a record, give it to their lawyers, who knows. All of the exit links are captured as well, which is why I assume it's automated.

I thought you guys might be interested in knowing this sort of stuff, since no one else really writes about it.. although, I assume it happens elsewhere. Superegatory, for example, received MANY visits from Take Two for example during the GTA V resume discovery. :)

They're still doing the pull right now and they'll capture this post last.

(If you're reading this, check out this post here. It's a satire about Diablo 3 X1, but you might be able to pull some real ideas from it for your next expansion pack.)

One of Joystiq's Blizzard tipsters (Steve) has informed them that John Staats has been let go. He was a Senior Level Designer (Level 2) on Titan. You'll find this news on plenty other sites, so I won't go into it too much. (Unless I dig up some other information that they haven't already announced.)

Other prior Titan troubles are detailed here.

* Update (11/07/11):

This "tip" could have been something as simple as his Facebook status update. He changed his status to no longer working at Blizzard, but he was still working there Oct. 25th at least (based on his comments).

If this was the reason, there may have been some more terminations as well. One of John Staat's Facebook friends, Trent Kaniuga has also changed his FB status to "Worked at Blizzard" as opposed to everyone elses "Works at Blizzard". He was a Sr. Concept Artist for Diablo 3 and was present at Blizzcon 2011.

(I don't use Facebook, so I'm not too familiar with FB sleuthing.. maybe you guys can investigate and confirm if this is correct or not?)

* Update (11/07/11):

Facebook status updates are also showing "Worked at Blizzard" (past tense) now on Dana Marie Bishop (Curatorial Assistant, was at this past Blizzcon and uploaded a bunch of personal pictures 3 days ago), Gino Whitehall (Concept Artist), Matt Milizia (Senior Environment Artist), and Paul Richards (Concept Artist) on the Titan team.

There are a dozen more, at least, recent Blizzard employees now showing "Worked at" as past tense.

(On a side note, I have actually followed Gino Whitehall's artwork in the past.. for a while I had thought that he was part of the Titan team or at least worked in the same circles.)

Was there a major overhaul a day or two before the Investors Call tomorrow? Maybe an announcement of restructuring within the organization? A loss in subscribers would explain Customer Support lay offs, for example.

If you guys are "FB gurus", let me know if this information is correct or if I made a mistake. I don't think it's a mistake though, as it looks pretty legit. It would make sense too, for a mass layoff shortly before an investor call (ie, rather than announcing it during the call and then laying off everyone at the end of the week. It's better to surprise employees for security reasons, as cruel as that sounds.)

Confirmed: When you are set as employed in FB, it will say "Works At". When you change your status (quick uncheck) to remove employment, it says "Worked At.." instead. They don't have new employers to revert to and they were most recently employed by Blizzard (e.g. many employees who were at Blizzcon are now showing "unemployed" statuses.) This all could be a mistake on their part, but they're all avid users of Facebook and changing their Employment status like this would be highly unusual. This appears to be a mass (multiple not "massive") layoff.

On a related note,

I was preparing a post for November 8th (in addition to the Quarterly Results Call), to basically show what to expect from Blizzard in 2012. But, if these layoffs are confirmed tomorrow, I'll have some more to write about. What's most interesting, though, is that they won't need any of these employees for Diablo 3 "crunch time" meaning that the game is much farther along than most people suspect. The only thing holding them back now are probably still those technical challenges and the RMAH integration.

* Update (11/08/11):

Looks like I can add a couple more names to the list, if the Joystiq rumor is true and FB is the source of their "tip". Joshua Horst (Producer) and Andrea Toyias (Casting and Voice-Over Director). Andrea was actually one of the Q&A Panelists for Diablo 3 at Blizzcon. I could have sworn that Peet Cooper (Sr. Environment Artists for Diablo 3) had Blizzard listed on his FB account yesterday, but now it's gone. (This doesn't necessarily mean he was laid off, but maybe he knew about the FB sleuthing and decided to hide his employment listing.)

There are at least 20 other people I see that are "no longer working" at Blizzard, but I can't find any other evidence of their last working day - so they're all unconfirmed for the moment.

(And yes, for those who were going to ask, I'm getting a LOT of hits from Blizzard offices on this situation.)

* Update (11/08/11):

Some outside forum posters are taking this news as bad or taking their reasoning for these layoffs too far (e.g. "lost subs", "bad blizzcon", "pandas"). Just to clarify, if this rumor ends up being true, this is just a perfectly normal process and a "seasonal" activity that's based on development timelines. This happens all the time, you just don't know about it since official announcements are never made. Titan is not cancelled, there just appears to be some reorganization to keep their vision and performance on track. Besides, "Titan" is just a name.. it can be applied to any number of different MMOs they are testing internally. This is very good news for Diablo 3, however, since typically there are layoffs following development completion. And as always, make sure you read comments too.. they further expand on a lot of these blog posts. :)

* Update (11/08/11):

Blizzard Community Manager Zarhym (Jonathan Brown) has claimed that it is all false evidence, that the status changes were just accidents, and it's all just basically rumor mill while there have been no terminations at all.

"Tons of speculation based on false evidence. Score one for Internet rumor mill? RT @blakex Yeah, just read that article..."

Bashiok (Micah Whipple) is also confirming the same, that no one has been laid off. Apparently, it's all just accidental.

So there you have it. The Blizzard response is basically "Nothing to see here, move along."

Does their official stance on speculation still apply if official statements are made by Blizzard employees using official Blizzard game names and on platforms used for dispensing company news releases?

"Blizzard Entertainment does not comment on rumors or speculation."

Of course, both LinkedIn and Twitter are public sources as well and anything you see written on there is also false evidence and speculation (Zarhym Logic™). No one in their right mind would ever publish accurate employment information on their Facebook profiles for heaven's sake. That's just crazy tin foil hattery. So, I wouldn't believe any information you read about on Twitter either.. it's highly inaccurate and should not be depended on.

* Update (11/08/11):

Zarhym (Source):

I'm not in PR and won't officially comment here on rumors or speculation. You control the quality of your reporting. @titan_mmo

But.. but.. you already did comment on rumor and speculation! :)

Mike Sacco (Source):

@talkingcongas I seriously hate that Daeity person

Hahahaha.. say, wasn't Sacco that guy who said Blizzard has never had any security breaches or leaks?

Official statement released on public forums:

Hey guys, out of respect for their privacy, we don’t discuss individual employees, but the speculation circulating about ‘massive layoffs at Blizzard’ is just a rumor.

Thread locked.

Now.. is that a "rumor rumor" or a "Tom Chilton rumor"? :)

Note: He's referring to a "massive" layoff rumor on the forum. On this blog, I'm just speculating on "mass" layoffs. I know it's not "massive".. maybe a dozen or more. Strange that he worded it that way though. Also, I thought that Blizzard Entertainment did not comment on rumor and speculation? Interesting..

* Update (11/08/11):

Joystiq.com has confirmed that there have been no layoffs.. including the one they originally reported themselves..

They wrote:

Yesterday, a handful of gaming news sites reported that a senior designer working on the new Titan MMO had gotten laid off by Blizzard Entertainment.

And then they linked back to themselves as the source of these rumors. Okay.

Anyways.. "layoffs never happened" and "Blizzard employees still have their jobs."

As per Joystiq, John Staats, Trent Kaniuga, Paul Richards, etc are all still employed with Blizzard. No one has been laid off recently.

(* March 2012 Update: All 3 of those employees were indeed laid off around the same time.)

Funny comments on their post though. Apparently, I was the one who started the rumor that John Staats was laid off. Joystiq is also claiming that the FB investigation revealed HUNDREDS of Blizzard employees laid off. Funny.. I thought I speculated on 8 names and assumed a dozen or so IF the rumor (started by Joystiq mind you) was proven true.

* Update (11/08/11):

Joystiq.com has two conflicting blog posts now. In one corner, we have Blizzard and Joystiq claiming that there have been no layoffs. Everything is just rumor, hence untrue. In the other corner, they're confirming that John Staats was indeed terminated.

So, this brings us all back to the original speculation. We may learn more in the coming weeks or months.

* Update (11/14/11):

Another FB profile confirmed. Paul Richards was indeed let go as speculated. I think we'll see a lot more layoffs over the next coming months too, and I'll continue to monitor.

(Continuation here. 12 employees were later confirmed, not including the several dozens of Technical Support and CSR positions. Under the WARN Act, a "mass layoff" can consist of 2 or more individuals too. So whether you use the legal definition of "mass layoff" or a mass of layoffs, they both apply.)

So, I was reading an interesting post on DiabloFans about difficulty levels. Basically, the "tl;dr" version is that based on various interviews, Beta gameplay, and Blizzard quotes about the four D3 difficulty levels, it seems that the game will be very easy to play and that players won't hit the expected level of difficulty until sometime in Hell mode (e.g. Hell is the new Normal.)

I thought it was a delightful and thought provoking article. He had citations and sources, it was speculation of course since the game's not out yet, but it does rather raise some interesting theories, thoughts and concerns.

Normally, I just skip everything on Diablofans because it's the exact same article posted on every other gaming forum, blog, and fan site. They only post official announcements, official videos, changes to FAQs, official posts about class changes, website changes, Blue posts, etc.

However, this one stood out because he took pieces from many different interviews, and put them together into one cohesive idea. The author, Magistrate, provided reasons, proof, and sources for his concerns.

But unfortunately something happened:

I apologize for any undue amount of negativity that this post conveys. I highly value your feedback and will do my best to improve my approach to writing content that you read in the future. No, no one asked me to say this. I say this because I care about the community that's been gathering here since 2006. When you're not happy, I'm not happy.

-Magistrate :)

Geeez.. what did those MONSTERS do to him?

He was voted down to hell, the readers got really angry, he received hate mail and threats, and he needed to issue a public apology to the community.

I didn't see any negativity at all in his post. But apparently when you question decisions or talk about concerns on upcoming class changes, you're a hateful, raging, conspiracy nut who despises Blizzard and all of their games.

Does any of that sound right to you? He strayed into forbidden territory ("Dude.. you should have just copied-and-pasted the latest blue post about icon colors being changed.") so they ripped him apart. I hate these toxic environments.

But, you know.. there was something about the website that I found very strange that could explain the "Don't Think, Don't Question" attitude. I was getting quite a headache looking at the website, so I put on some "special 1980's style sunglasses" that I had found back in an old abandoned church next to a shantytown in LA. Suddenly, it all made sense.

Here's what the webpage looked like before the sunglasses:

And, here's what it looked like after the sunglasses:


So yeah, it makes a lot of sense now. Now, I always thought that the difficulty levels were going to be pretty easy too. Except until you hit maybe the middle of Hell and then the Inferno difficulty. The reason for having such a harsh difficulty wall in place is because it forces players to upgrade their equipment.. and that equipment can only be found on the Real Money Auction House. Blizzard pushes players to a certain point where they hit a wall, and in order to get past the wall, Blizzard pushes them into the RMAH where only the best gear can be found. That's what I would do if I was a standard marketing and financial staff member. :)