Will there be a PC port and if so, when? This is the big question on everyone's mind.
The official statement on Rockstargames.com on June 10, 2010 was "As of now, there are no current plans to bring Red Dead Redemption to the PC platform. If that should change, we will let you know."
Which basically means, "we're not sure right now, we're still deciding whether to release it or not and who will be porting it."
This actually fits in with something that I learned from a source about 3-4 weeks before the announcement. I can write about this now that I'm doing the blog-thing. :)
When all of those mass layoffs occured at Rockstar, most of the positions impacted were animators, technical/graphic artists, tool developers, and audio techs. Basically, the grunt workers, content and story creators. Although it wasn't announced, Rockstar Toronto also lost some people in Jan/Feb 2010 (I'm not sure if those were included in the official "40 laid off" figure).
Rockstar Toronto is the team that ported GTA IV from console to PC (with a little help from Rockstar North.) For the GTA expansion packs (e.g. Lost & Damned, Gay Tony), North did the console version and Toronto did the PC version.
What you didn't know is that Rockstar Toronto was actually involved in the development of Red Dead Redemption too. They did a lot of the graphics work and correction of assets and props provided by San Diego (had to be updated from their PS2/XBOX counterparts.) You wouldn't know this, though, because they weren't listed in the game credits. =]
Matt Kazan's blog also has some other juicy insider details about Rockstar. He worked on a game called "We Are The Mods" when he joined Rockstar in 2006. It was a follow-up to their hit game "The Warriors". Check out his blog if you're interested in more details about that cancelled game.
As it stands, Rockstar has let go of the content developers since they already built the game and were no longer needed.. but they still have the PC porting team. Rockstar Toronto is the primary team for PC ports and they have working knowledge of RDR, so it stands to reason that Toronto will be the group doing the Red Dead Redemption PC port.
RDR Sales Figures - Does it makes sense to port?
Red Dead Redemption sold 1.8M on their opening week and approx. 5.2M have been sold as of today. Their return on investment was roughly twice what they put into development (it cost $80-100M to make).
By comparison, GTA IV had $100M development costs (7x return) and MW had $50M development costs (20x return). And then there's WoW. Development costs, server upkeep, staff payroll, hardware support, customer service, etc totaled $100M for the first 4 years of operation. (Kotaku has conflicting sources for this information though, in one article they say it cost $100M and in the other article it says $200M). Either way, the return has been tremendous. =]
So, RDR really hasn't even come close to the success of GTA IV but it did still make an operating profit of 50% which is pretty good. The cost of porting the game from consoles to PC is just a fraction of the original development costs too, so it will be highly profitable even if they only sell 500,000 copies. (Note: PC sales will never even come close to the console sales for various reasons.)
PC ports from Rockstar have had many issues (which have significantly impacted sales), but they're getting better. For example, PC versions are very late on delivery and everyone would have bought a PS3/XBOX360 version by then. The other reason for poor sales was because of buggy ports and bad reviews (GTA IV was called "the worst release" and "worst PC port" by many, but I think Rockstar Toronto has learned from their mistakes. Most bugs have been fixed, and their expansion packs have been successful.) And then there's the piracy scapegoat. But, it's still in Take-Two's best interest to push Rockstar's PC port forwards.
When Will There Be An Announcement?
There was a 8 month gap between the announcement and release dates of the GTA IV console vs. PC port. Unfortunately, there are really no trends to compare to, but there could be an announcement made before November of this year.
The reason I selected November is because there has been something interesting going on the Toronto office over the past couple months. Apparently, there has been a fear of job loss, there has been some "preparation" going on, and some employees have been putting out their resumes. The impression I received was that Rockstar HQ hasn't decided what exactly to do with Rockstar Toronto and they're currently taking a step-back to re-evaluate their offices, projects and expenses. My guess is that there is probably pressure on the other Rockstar offices as well.
(Addendum: Take-Two's fiscal year will be ending on 10/31/2010 and typically their announcements are made a couple months following - meaning the first week of December 2010. If there's bad news, it will probably be made in November, but if it's good news it will be on target for the first week of Dec. I'm hoping for good news. =] Now I suppose the decision could have been made in Q3, meaning an official statement at the end of Aug / start of September but it would depend on the development status of Max Payne 3.)
Toronto is currently assisting with the development of Max Payne 3, so I'll learn more once that project is cleaned off of their plates.
If the Rockstar Toronto office gets the axe though, it will result in either the cancellation or severe delay of RDR PC development. We'll probably see something happen before November though, as it never looks good to lay off people right before Christmas. If they don't get shutdown, though, their next (most likely) project after Max Payne 3 will be RDR PC. Guess we'll see..
Another delay in the Max Payne 3 development might push these estimates back though. (Then again, there was a 2 year difference between Bully PS2 and the PC port. So, if nothing happens with Rockstar Toronto this year and they work on a different project after Max 3, I'll have to change my forecast to a date much farther away.) But still, these are a lot of "signs" to work with and it's interesting information to know.
Other than that, if you're a console user and waiting in anticipation for RDR3 (internally, Redemption was actually called RDR2), you're in for a long wait. There's nothing currently planned for a PS3/XBOX360 sequel, but Rockstar does have some intended DLC releases though (worked well for GTAIV), and RDR3 (aka Red Dead Revolution) will be eventually developed for the PS4 and XBOX 720.
Will update as I learn more.
* UPDATE: As predicted, something BIG did happen and just a couple days before November (3 months after this post). =]
Take Two has MOVED their Fiscal Quarter (very rare)! Not only that, but MAJOR restructuring has taken place and even their CEO has stepped down. Big news indeed. Because of this massive shift, all of their announcements will be impacted as well (ie, moved to the next quarter.)
- "Not at this moment in time" - Logically, that means that they COULD have plans immediately AFTER the post. This is also classic corporate-speak which I wrote about it in an earlier post.
- "We have no plans" - Of course they have plans! They been talking about it, thinking about it, the server teams have been planning the migration in their minds in case it ever does happen. Just because you have a plan or blueprint, doesn't mean you're going to build it. The word "intention" would have explained better.
- Sorry to sound harsh, but Vaneras is just a CS Forum Representative on the EU Forums. He has no idea what the direction and vision of the Sr. Management team is.
- Level cap to 100 or higher.
- 2 or more Hero Classes
- Brand new skills and spells.
- New classes, not just 1.
- New races, not just 1.
- 2-3 times as many new Raids/Zones, and not reused canvases.
- And maybe (well timed*) Classic Realms to lure the hardcore and casual players back in?
So you can say that there's a definite interest and strong user base playing on WoW private servers.
Or am I just wrong, and Blizzard doesn't consider long-term variables like this?
- It's already happened (albeit in a slightly different form) with the SWG MMORPG.
- Marketers use nostalgia to influence what you purchase. It's highly effective.
- WoW developers have already put nostalgic pieces in the game already ("Captain Placeholder" is returning in Cataclysm no less).
- It's hardwired into all human brains.
- It's so significant to our behavior that it was once believed to be a cerebral disease.
- Nostalgia can cause emotional pain or joy, which has a huge impact on our decisions (see conditioned response.)
- If Cataclysm appeases the need for nostalgia, it will be a big win for Blizzard and finally closes the chapter on vanilla WoW. (There are trends that will prove this: internal records, WoW forum posts, Google interest searches, and number of Private Servers / User counts.)
- If Cataclysm evokes increased nostalgia (visible trends again), Blizzard may introduce a "huge feature" in the next expansion pack.. classic realms (and perhaps variants to choose from.) A very smart strategy, and a way to reduce development costs on the next expansion. =]
- If Cataclysm does increase nostalgia, more users ask for Pre-TBC realms, and trends increase in favor of Vanilla WoW servers (e.g. private servers, posts, requests, etc.) but the feature is never introduced, sales will not be hurt but existing customers will leave. Keep in mind that customer counts and sales have decreased and the existing customers are the ones that they desperately need to hold onto.
Alright, I've completed migrating the blog over from Posterous. It's too bad all of the comments and pageviews couldn't be moved over. It was nice to see all of those tens-of-thousands of visitors to the page (Wordpress + Posterous combined hit 50,000 visitors in under a week). =]
Guess I gotta hit the reset counter, though, in making this latest transition. Hopefully it will be the last.