After the big Fansite Beta Key Giveaway post by Bashiok went live, it was quickly announced on other gaming fan sites.

There was even a post on Diablo.incgamers.com, but it suddenly vanished shortly after going live:

Remember that question Bashiok had in twitter a while ago? The one where he asked you where you went for your Diablo 3 news? Well, it seems to have had some significance to the Fansite Giveaways they’re now holding on other sites.

It's gone now, but they had a special emphasis on "other sites". :)

In the past, fan sites were provided beta keys by Blizzard, but incgamers.com was mysteriously absent from the list. The Ghetto actually talked about why this was the case a couple weeks back, and I was waiting for an opportunity to make a post about it myself. I think this is a good opportunity.

The reason they didn't get any beta keys at the time, being as huge as they are, is because incgamers.com isn't exactly favored by Blizzard these days. Sixen (Blizzard appointed MVP) explains it best when he publicly and unprofessionally ridiculed incgamers.com for being permanently blacklisted by Blizzard.

At the time of his obviously joyful comment, he was the Site Administrator of incgamers.com's main competitor. I'm positive there was no loss of sleep over Blizzard's decision.

Remember when Bashiok had that Twitter contest where users were asked to submit their favorite sites? Apparently, the incgamers.com team were actually expecting something negative to happen.

Pretty sure Bashiok and the PR team have the word "incgamers" auto-delete. Lol.

What does he have against incgamers? He deleted my tweet from replies btw.

He deleted everybody's that says incgamers. Either PR has access to his account, or he deleted it himself. Probably the former, though. It wouldn't surprise me if there is a PR hootsuite account that has all BLizzard guys' accounts tapped in.

Rushster, the Site Admin explained the issue as being related to their old SC site:

This is not correct. They didn't want to include us because of something that happened on our old StarCraft site with a news post by a new staff member whose first language was not English and he used the word 'Exploit' instead of 'Bug'. They wanted it changed so we did. Blizzard also started to ask we change the way we write about StarCraft 2 and stop being so critical (even though they were not critical unless it was justified and had merit).

This site has never done anything wrong and we thought it best not to change the way we write about Blizzard games because that would not be beneficial to the readership, and fans of Diablo are very important to us as we are all massive fans too :)

It's definitely concerning that Blizzard tells gaming fansites and blogs what to write. The same sort of problem has happened many times with gaming reviews in the past.

I have been told by an anonymous user that the team from incgamers.com aren't even invited to any of the press events or Blizzcons anymore, and if they go, they're either hidden or they were possibly blacklisted as "normal visitors" (since no one ever sees them at the events.)

They also went on to explain how Blizzard is very strict about questions and you need to stick to their own script. If you ask questions that deviate from their rules, they're told "question time is over." In one particular case, the individual who asked the wrong question was not invited back to followup Blizzcons. It sounds like Blizzard PR is very controlling over every aspect of events, fansites, and information.. and it was quite scary to hear.

How To Get On Blizzard's Good Side (and Get Beta Keys)

Thanks to Bashiok's post, we now know which blogs are "preferred" or "Authorized Fansites" for Blizzard (BlizzPlanet, D3DB, D3Sanc, DiabloFans, Force Strategy Gaming) and which ones aren't.

You can see a tremendous difference in their blog posts too. DiabloFans, for example, just re-posts the official news announcements directly from Blizzard.. no original thought, no questions, only following orders. Diablo.incgamers.com, on the other hand, might be critical or snarky and post interesting topics that DFans and the other sites would never dare write about.

It's interesting to see that D3Sanc managed to obtain 400 beta keys. If you're familiar with the site, you'll know that they're very small and have very little traffic. It's a well designed site, don't get me wrong, but the forum has been sitting on like 1 thread and 4 total replies for several months now (19 total members). They don't have a lot of traffic, but they are a "Blizzard preferred" site.

A couple weeks ago, I knew they were going to get beta keys, but I didn't think they would get so many due to their smaller size. If you wanted to make a "preferred site" yourself, get beta keys, and be invited to press events, D3Sanc is the perfect model that you need to emulate.

You only need to stick to a short list of rules: only post Blizzard's official announcements, keep everything positive and supporting Blizzard, control forum posts, and moderate every facet of the website so that Blizzard is only painted in a positive light.

Remember when D3Sanc heavily modified and edited an old Bashiok Battle.net Forum post to make it positive? This is the sort of stuff you should be doing if you want a successful website, even if you don't agree with it yourself.

If you really want to get on Blizzard's good side, take it beyond typical propaganda sites like Diablofans, and turn it into a crazy fanatical "Dear Leader" style website. You need to GLORIFY Blizzard is every decision they make, retroactively edit all of your old posts if they can cause any negative harm, stick to the company line, only post official announcements, put all of the employees high up on pedestals, and brag about how great the team is. Defend them every chance you get, and talk about how Bashiok is just misunderstood but he's truly an amazing person. He donated one of his kidneys to a dying kitten, that sort of stuff.. it will get you a lot of blue brownie points.

This is how you get a successful website and get special treatment. Doing it this way might even get you access to exclusive press events and information. If you ever wanted to do this, you could even run two simultaneous websites. Your main "Worship Blizzard" blog, but then you can anonymously run a smaller blog or unofficial site that's more critical (using exclusive information obtained from your official site.)

Luckily, I have already had beta access for several months now and the topics I discuss don't require any special treatment or exclusive information from Blizzard. :)

The thought of a propaganda website really interests me though.. I would go totally overboard with it, and I think most fanboys would believe it's legit.

* UPDATE:

Incgamers.com should be handed beta keys given the size of their fanbase and it would be pretty foolish for Blizzard to leave them excluded in such a massive and public giveaway. Bashiok has stated that they have only passed out keys for NA, and EU is still to come. Even though half the other sites are NA/EU fansites, just like Incgamers, you could still consider Incgamers a "UK fansite".

So, there's still a chance they'll get keys. And we'll see for ourselves how flexible Blizzard's blacklist is.

I think incgamers.com wasn't expecting any keys, though, given the post that suddenly disappeared from the front page and their past experiences. :)

Awesome! It looks like there has been more traction on the Wasteland front.

Here's what Brian Fargo had to say during a recent IGN Interview:

He doesn't know if it'd be straight up called Wasteland 2, but he repeatedly emphasized that, despite having thought about it for only 48 hours, it wouldn't be a crazy genre change up. Wasteland, whatever its called, will be "100% faithful to its roots." This means a Wasteland game that "would be focusing on top-down, probably isometric, party based, skill based -- where if you'd just finished playing Wasteland and moved onto this you'd feel comfortable."

When I first announced it, I just called it "Wasteland 2" for effect, but I'm actually hoping he keeps it as the original name. It will need a new story though, not a revamp of the original.

Perhaps even as a prequel to the original Wasteland during the initial formation of the Desert Rangers or the technologically advanced, but xenophobic Guardian Citadel. Or maybe the inception of the killer robot army. :)

Here's what else they had to say about this project:

The big thing Fargo emphasizes, that the fans are often missing, is that "this process means we don't have to do it like the publisher wants." Fans on the boards are worried that the project will start out looking like a hardcore, old-school Wasteland title, but eventually turn into something more "mainstream." Fargo says that they don't have to worry about "will [the audience] get this or get that," they can just be "more like the old days...totally creative."

Fargo has only been working on the project for a mere 48 hours, and he and the rest of inXile are currently working on a production schedule to see if its feasible. But he does think that it'd take at least a million dollars, and hopes that the Kickstarter will go live in the next month.

His twitter account has grown from 128 to 187 followers so far. I'm a huge Wasteland fan, and it would be very cool if my suggestion played a small part in getting Wasteland finally developed. I'm not sure if he was originally considering it before I recommended it, though, so I'll have to ask. :)

* UPDATE:

I got a response:

I was only lightly considering it but no specific project until a few fans like yourself started sending me messages.

I guess you could say I "kickstarted" the Wasteland 2 Kickstarter. :)

Earlier today, a reader had asked if I was an investor (because of all of the company research and prediction posts.) As usual, my response ended up getting pretty long, so I just converted it into a full post. :)

If you ask me some interesting questions, sometimes you'll get some interesting answers. One of my other recent posts ("Playing the Long Con") also came out as a result of a reader question.

This post might really interest some of you, especially if have a stockbroker or you're looking for a way to predict stock changes.

So, to be clear, I'm not an investor and I haven't done any investing. I'm not involved in it because I don't know anything about how to do it.. probably like many of you. If I had a broker that could move fast, or I personally knew how to short sell stocks myself, it's something I would actually do. ("Selling short", by the way, is basically a way to benefit financially when a stock loses value.. so you're betting that a company will do poorly in the future. You might have heard the term "bear market" before, it's the same sort of field.)

I do recognize, though, that the kind of stuff I research or analyze does have in some cases a strong correlation with stock price changes. I'll give you a real world example of something that actually happened last year.

It's something that can be theoretically useful again in the future.

So, here's the investment tip: leaked video games. :)

If you know ahead of time that a game is going to get really bad reviews, you therefore know that it's going to have bad sales and you will know this ahead of other investors. When the first day sales come, the stock prices will react to the bad reviews and sales figures.

THQ's Homefront leaked publicly online two weeks early, and if you had played the game (or saw the reviews) you knew it was going to be TERRIBLE. At the time, I would have actually shorted the stock (if I had the tools and knowledge) knowing that THQ had invested a lot of money in this project and they were depending on it for the future.

Here's what happened to the THQ stock after the game launched on March 15, 2011. Remember.. two weeks prior to this, the stock hardly budged even though the game was leaked and gamers found it horrible.

This was a perfect opportunity to short the stock, because you would have known sales would be very poor. It was so bad, in fact, that the stock continued to tumble until they were even threatened to be delisted.

This also tells me that not a lot of investors follow these leaked games, or even play them themselves, which is a huge disadvantage for them. They invest in something that they don't understand, and probably rely on investment advice from others.

This isn't possible with all companies though. EA and Activision are hard to predict, so I would skip those. But, the more volatile companies are easy to predict. For example, THQ, Take Two, Namco Bandai.. they release less titles, have less regular income (like subscription based games) and they rely more on major titles.

A major title means major investment, and it means they're counting on it's financial success. If something goes bad, their stock cannot recover as easily.

(I would have loved to include Bethesda in that list, based on the RAGE leak, but they're a privately traded company so I don't know what happened internally.. I assume it was fairly negative though.)

When a game leaks, here are the signs to look for in the company:

• If it's a major title they're highly dependent on. This makes it a volatile release, which is what you want.
• It's being released in the absence of other major titles.
• If it's a new franchise and they intend on future growth for it.
• Hype of the game demonstrates high expectations.
• Look for high sales expectations especially from industry specialists since investors follow their advice.

You also need to be prepared yourself.

You never know when a game is going to be leaked, or how long before the game is officially released. Sometimes if the street date is broken, you might only have 2-3 days to make a decision.

If you can obtain the game, you need to be well familiar with the genre to know if it's going to do well or not. Don't bother guessing the success of a RTS game if you've never played one before. You also need to be a well discerning individual who can rush through and properly judge the game content as quickly as possible. There are a lot of factors to consider, like graphics, story, ease of use, and game length. Game length especially! With that in mind, you should always have a memory editing tool (like Cheat Engine) handy so that you can cheat through the game and experience as much as possible to make a quick but informed decision. (Trainers and in-game cheat modes won't be available when the game is leaked, so you have to do it yourself.)

Some of you might be thinking "Well, this is all just hindsight and there's no proof that you would have done this at the time." So, how about we do this for another future game leak? :) I'll make a prediction and we'll see what happens. From what I can tell, the next best potentials will be Max Payne 3 and BioShock Infinite. We have to see if any of those get leaked (or the street date broken), and I can make an educated guess how the stock will react. The other option is Guild Wars 2 (or another MMO).. these require beta-tester reviews. Only problem is, I believe they're protected under NDA.

So, this brings me to a concern. What I don't know is if there's anything illegal about doing any of this? If a street date is broken, or a game is leaked publicly, and there are public reviews about the game.. if you act on that information, is it considered insider trading since you have access to materials that aren't supposed to be public yet? If you are (or know) an investment broker, I'd like to know if it's legal to act on this sort of information.

There's always other public information to act on though. If you recall, for a long time, I had been saying to expect a release date announcement during the 3 days before the Q4 2011 shareholders meeting. There was a 80% chance that it would be made on the Monday (the most logical choice), but the chances would drop considerably as the call approached, and by then it would mean that the game would be delayed to Q2. (I put my faith in Blizzard though and trusted their "promise" of Q1.) After the call, ATVI's stock immediately tumbled 30 cents. Their stock is always fluctuating, though, so it's hard to say if it will recover or how soon. This is why I prefer other companies who put all of their eggs in one basket though.

So, a news alert just went out 15 minutes ago that apparently Thomas Tippl (COO & CFO of Activision Blizzard) will be presenting at the Goldman Sachs 2012 Technology and Internet Conference today at 10:20AM PST.

A very last minute invite.. it's possible they weren't even sure if he was going to be presenting today or not.

If you're interested in this sort of stuff, you can join the webcast here.

During the course of the presentation, Activision Blizzard may make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution you that these statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

This is a pretty typical warning for any speeches regarding finances, so don't get your hopes up.

It's too soon for a release date announcement, plus Mike Morhaime said that it would be in the "weeks ahead." (Not "within the week ahead.") If any kind of release date announcement is made, it would be the announcement of another delay. :)

* UPDATE:

It was pretty much information we already knew. They have 2 releases in the pipeline, but they still might bring 3 (at the VGA, Mike had said 3 releases this year.)

Thomas did mention what I was talking about before. They're not afraid of cannibalization and they want WOW players introduced to the Diablo franchise so that they eventually play both (great way to extend the longevity of WOW in the absence of regular content additions.) By encouraging customers to play Diablo, they will use the RMAH to pay for their subscriptions and other games.

He was hesitant to talk about the revenue model for their Next Gen MMO, but I got the feeling that it won't be subscription based. "It works well for World of Warcraft, but not others." Makes me wonder if Titan will be much smaller in size and scope than WOW.

I contacted Brian Fargo, and I've made him aware of the Kickstarter service. It's a virtually unknown website that's definitely going to grow in popularity now that a professional game has been announced on it, from a well-known developer.

Brian Fargo has just tweeted that he is seriously considering using this new crowd-sourcing model to bring back Wasteland.

He also tweeted the following:

Pondering bringing Wasteland back through this crowdfunding. It's a world I have longed to work with again.

Wasteland is one of my all time favorite RPGs, and this is something I will definitely be supporting financially if he moves forwards on this.

I would recommend adding yourself as a Brian Fargo Twitter follower, and please continue encouraging Brian with this latest development.

The faster he can get something off the ground with the momentum that Kickstarter is currently experiencing, the better position he'll be in. Other game developers, like Obsidian, will also no doubt be moving to Kickstarter. Eventually, it will be saturated with video game proposals. So, whoever can get in there first will be far better off (e.g. in funding and interest.) When everyone starts doing it, Kickstarter (for gaming development) loses it's novelty, and also potential funding.

This will get a lot more traction (and fan site coverage) once DuckandCover and NMA pick up on it. If you're not familiar with Wasteland, you can learn more about the game and it's history at the (now abandoned) Wasteland Ranger HQ-Grid. I have been communicating with as many different media and industry contacts as possible, and I'm getting them to motivate Brian to release Wasteland 2 through Kickstarter. Let's see how far I can take this!

“Do you know the difference between a hustler and a good con-man? A hustler has to get out of town as quickly as he can. But, a good con-man? He doesn't have to leave until he wants to.”
- James Woods

In the past, I've talked about how the RMAH was designed so that only high level (or should I say, the most valuable) items will be sold on it. Even Blizzard is aware of this, and they want the most valuable items only sold on the RMAH. Even if they're not directly sold by a player, it will end up on the RMAH indirectly by another player who re-sells it.

In the end, all of the best stuff will be on there.

The other day, one of our readers asked a question about the "forced" usage of the RMAH so I wanted to expand on this. My comment ended up being too long, so I just decided to answer the question as a full post:

Don't you think that making the RMAH mandatory would alienate a big chunk of their playerbase?"

If they make inferno so hard that you can't beat it without the best gear possible from inferno(which will only be available on the RMAH), I see a few problems coming up:

-How are people supposed to get inferno gear if they can't beat inferno without said inferno gear? (D3 endgame multiplayer only? o_O)
-If they are forced to buy stuff from the RMAH to progress in inferno, I can see a lot of player simply not bothering with it, just quitting. I don't think Blizzard want that.
-There will be a lot of rage against the RMAH as soon as people are forced to use it. I'm pretty sure a lot of Blizzard's fans are against the idea of "pay to win".

The way I see it: buying stuff on the RMAH will be a way to speed up your character progression. Yes, inferno will be super hard, but there's no way Blizzard is going to force you to buy stuff to progress. That would be a horrible way to promote their new and controversial business model. (D3 isn't F2P, the idea that you'd NEED to spend more money than the initial purchase price in order to beat it feels wrong).

I don't think a "mandatory" RMAH will alienate the playerbase, because they won't even know they're being alienated in the first place. :)

Perception Management

The financial motivations of a company are not a subject that most gamers care to discuss, let alone even want to be aware of. They just want to play the video game, but the game ends up playing them too.

I think what will happen is that most players will actually turn around and THANK Blizzard for creating such a difficult experience. :)

They'll never make the connection between the Inferno difficulty level (and other difficulty level "steps" to get to Hell) and the RMAH.

(Unfortunately, I have to start tagging the blog URL to any pic I throw together. Flux from Incgamers likes to borrow images from this blog for his own posts without crediting the source.)

Players won't get angry at Blizzard for the "mandatory" RMAH because Blizzard is an expert at perception management. And this is what it all comes down to: perception. It won't be a problem for Blizzard if they're not perceived as the problem. So, where is the real problem and who can Blizzard redirect anger and frustration?

Blizzard has kept emphasizing that the Real Money Auction House is a completely player-driven economy, it's managed by the players, and that they have no control over it. They have also said that the RMAH is "COMPLETELY OPTIONAL." Blizzard is not forcing you to use it at all. If players just happen to put items up on the RMAH, Blizzard can't be held responsible for it.. because they promised they would be "hands off."

This Is Unfair!

In situations where players complain on the public forums about Inferno or Hell being too difficult, and how they're "forced" to use the RMAH (because it's the only place with the best gear), I suspect that the following will happen:

• Blizzard CM's will rush to address the concern.. by correcting the gamer for being wrong. They'll be told that the RMAH is "completely optional" and that they're not being forced in anyway to use it.

• The Blizzard CMs will tell them that they can just buy whatever they want from the Gold Auction House. If they can't find what they're looking for, it's just a "coincidence" and they probably checked the Gold AH at the wrong time. Throughout all of this, they'll feign ignorance to the fact that the best items can only be found on the RMAH.

• Blizzard CMs will say that they don't have to buy anything at all, and they just need to farm Nightmare or Hell to get the items they want.. just like their other games. "It will be just like WoW where you need to farm bosses to get the gear you want."

• The blue army will also rush to the aid of the Blizzard CMs and correct the complainer on the forums as well. (Some will actually be Blizzard employees under the guise of regular players.) Posts will be edited or deleted, all to manage perception.

• Blizzard forums will be full of customers and fanboys praising Blizzard for making the Inferno level so difficult, and how they did an excellent job finally making a challenging difficulty level for the players. Gamers who use the RMAH, and then complain about it, will be chastised for being lazy and taking the easy path. Or, they will be called "spoiled rich kids" or impatient for trying to rush the game when they should have been farming "like everyone else." Another common one will be, "Why are you complaining? It's a subscription fee game! It's just a little bit of money, and Blizzard needs it to keep the lights on."

You'll see some contradictory behavior. On one hand, Blizzard will encourage use of the RMAH, but on the other hand, they'll publicly look down upon "Pay To Win" players. :)

The Average User

Above, I just talked about users who complain, but that's a small minority.

On average, most players who use the RMAH will either feel guilty about it, or more likely, they'll think they're cheating the system and gaining an advantage over other players. In either case, these players won't say anything or complain on the forums.. just the way Blizzard likes it.

The problem is that these players won't know they're being "forced" to buy from the RMAH. They'll think that it's their own decision.

It's human nature to be easily influenced and believe that we came to a decision on our own, especially when a game developer's professional marketing and team of psychologists are constantly pounding an idea into our heads. Sometimes it is our own conscious decision, but that's only when we're fully aware of all of the facts and it's a well informed decision.

In some cases, the decision to buy from the RMAH will be because they're impatient and they want to skip ahead to get to the end-game with their friends. (The same thing that happens countless times in WOW and D2.) Or, this might just be their belief when they realize how difficult it is to get properly geared.

These players also don't want to tell anyone they bought from the RMAH so that they won't be labelled as a pariah (even though everyone else does it, and they also never admit to it.)

Forced, but not forced..

"It will be just like WoW where you need to farm bosses to get the gear you want."

But, there's a really big problem with this. You have two options to gear up for Inferno: you can farm Hell, or use the "optional" RMAH.

Is Hell really an option though? Players keep forgetting that Diablo 3 does not have any loot tables. You can't farm specific bosses or mobs for items you need, no matter what you kill, your loot is completely random.

You could farm Hell for years without ever getting the proper gear, and in the absence of free trading, it's a nearly impossible task. And, consider this for casual players!

Even the crafting system for gear will still function the same as regular item farming because you can't craft an item without the Rare Blacksmith Plan drop first. These plans will be sold on the RMAH, just like other rare items or weapons. Besides the random chance in getting the recipe, consider also that crafting the gear is completely random as well. Each time you craft a weapon, it will have random properties and modifiers, and each crafting attempt requires a large influx of Inferno level salvage and Rare Crafting Materials. And even the salvaged materials are completely random! You're back to the same problem of receiving items that you don't need. And, you're still dependent on farming Inferno for all of these materials and recipes, but you can't farm Inferno until you get the proper gear.

Given the number of items, item modifiers, and affixes, there will be billions (if not trillions) of combinations of items in the game. Because of this massive pool of items (Blizzard has stated it's an "item-centric game"), Blizzard is going to be praised for providing so many options for us. As we farm Hell, it's going to appear awesome.. "look at all of these items that are dropping! Wow!".. until the player realizes that they're not actually getting the gear they really need. These useless items (for that player) will actually end up the Auction Houses, and ultimately the RMAH in one form or another, so that another player, who actually needs it, can buy it.

Because of the amount of loot and random generators in the game, the chances of getting the right combination of items are next to impossible.. without using the RMAH. As a Demon Hunter on your own, you might just keep getting hundreds of "of the Owl" crossbows and wands.

The sheer amount of loot will blind you to the truth. You'll have a thousand spoons, but all you need is a knife.

You will be told, though, that you just need to farm Hell for the right items but you have the "optional" RMAH. You're not being forced to do anything you want.

When you consider this, it isn't just a "Pay 2 Win" problem any more. For most players, the RMAH will be needed for actual player advancement, and you can't go any further in the game without the right gear. You need to farm for the right gear, but the only epic boss in Diablo 3 with a loot table is the Real Money Auction House.. it's easy to beat, you just throw a lot of cash at it.

If you weren't already aware, there's been a bug in the Diablo beta that has been around for a long time now that makes it possible for a 5th player to join a party.

Incgamers recently made a post about it that shows the actual bug in action. There's a direct link to the video here and you can see it happen immediately at the 2:03:22 mark.

I wanted to point out something interesting about this "bug" that most players might not have noticed or understood about video game logic.

Did you notice that there's a 5th invisible portrait window already in the game? If this were a bug, why are there logical in-game systems in place to support the addition of a 5th player to the party? Not only that, but you can interact with this portrait window and see player information.

If this were truly a bug, and the game was not designed for 4+ player parties, none of this would be possible.

A fifth person could join the game, but there shouldn't be a fifth portrait window prepared for this user and there shouldn't be other logical systems in place to support more than 4 players. What this means is that the interface was designed for supporting a minimum of 5 players. And, I say "minimum" because there's still plenty of space (and small scaling of player portraits) on the left-hand side to support more than 5 "invisible portrait boxes". :)

This isn't a "5th player bug".. it's a bug in their player number restriction system, and players are able to bypass it to get more players (which are actually supported by the game.) Much like the public channels (which have been probably in the game for over a year now), it's really just an on/off switch that Blizzard controls. The game is designed to support more than 4 players, but Blizzard has it switched off for some reason.

It could be because of console limitations or their design plans for co-op, perhaps they were originally planning on 5 for the current game or as part of the future Diablo 3 X1 expansion (group increases in size with the introduction of new classes), or maybe the developers had problems scaling the monsters so it was easier just to make it 4 players. I think that a lot of players believe the latter.. that it was for scaling purposes.

So, something occurred to me. What if the game didn't just support a 5th player portrait window, but also other in-game systems already.. like scaling?

Guess what? It does.

When a fifth player joins the party, you will actually receive an alert ("A new ally has joined, but the minions of Hell grow stronger") and the monsters properly scale/grow in power with the addition of a fifth player. (There are also other windows/UIs beyond the party menu that demonstrate the in-game logic for supporting 5+ total players.)

So, adding a 5th player is not a bug. The only bug is that players can bypass the security lockout that prevents the 5th player from joining.

But, it's interesting to know that the game was designed to support a minimum of 5 players, the current game fully supports it, and monsters will scale when the 5th player joins.

This begs the question; why is there a 4 player limit? It's not due to scaling issues, it's definitely not an infrastructure or processing problem, the game was DESIGNED to support more than 4 players, it's not for testing purposes, and it's not revenue driven (ie, Blizzard wouldn't create a paid service that "upgrades" the player limit.) Blizzard specifically picked 4 for some reason, even though the game (and gameplay) supports 5 and more. They apparently don't plan on unlocking this (since it's "a bug") for a future Expansion Pack.. so why did they select 4?

Although highly unlikely (according to Blizzard), if something in the future is planned, perhaps the 5+ party isn't for "normal parties" but rather a support mechanism for special dungeons (raids) or large scale PVP combat teams.

And here's something else to think about: If this bug can be reproduced in the retail (which players will probably find a way), what kind of exploitation potential will there be for 5-8 player Inferno parties where the monsters can be killed more quickly by MF-geared players. (Apparently, loot drops don't scale with the mobs.. however loot scaling has been both confirmed and denied by Blizzard.)

* UPDATE:

Apparently, back in August 2011, Jay Wilson confirmed that the game was designed for 6 players maximum, but they didn't like the chaos of having 5-6 players on the screen at once, so they were "playing around with 4" which they believe would be the eventual maximum party size.

So, as suspected, the game was designed for at least 5 players (6 being the programming logic cap), it has the math to support it, and it appears that rather than going back and reworking a lot of the code (which would take a lot of time), they simply locked the max party size to 4, even though the game supports more.

Considering this, it is entirely possible that users might find a way to get at least 6 players in a party (in the beta, but hopefully they won't close all of the gaps by retail.)

Highlights from the call and Fourth Quarter 2011 financial results include:

• No release date announcement. Big shocker.

• Diablo 3 has been delayed to Q2: "The company's first quarter 2012 outlook does not incorporate a new release from Blizzard Entertainment."
  
  Well, I guess we finally have our answer. "Early 2012" actually means "Mid 2012".

• WOW has 10.2 Million Subscribers as of 12/31/11. (During their last conference call, they announced 10.3 million.)

• Calendar year 2012 outlook anticipates two releases from Blizzard Entertainment. Looks like SC2 HOTS has been delayed to 2013.

• There are approximately 50M monthly active users across Battle.net, CoD multiplayer, CoD Elite, and Skylanders WebWorld.

By the way, with all of the new people joining this call (potentially thousands of anxious fans, especially because direct links were advertised on Reddit and various Diablo forums), this is why it's so important for Blizzard to state ahead of time that the release date announcement WILL NOT be revealed at their upcoming conference call. When they don't do that, they're just trolling their customers.

Blizzard "Community Managers" (which is a form of PR) and Support staff frequently state that there are upcoming surprises, surprises planned, and surprise announcements. Because of this, people will grow even more suspicious when they say "Oh yeah.. this upcoming event is no big deal. You should really just go to your favorite site for the highlights of the call." It's like anticipating a surprise birthday party while your friends and family try to act nonchalant.

The reason they should notify their customers ahead of time is because, one of these days, an angry fan is going to raise a question during the open Q&A period for all of Activision Blizzard's employees and investors to hear: "Hey, Mike.. why is Bashiok such a troll?" Except, it will probably be worse.

"Early 2012"

Just to be clear, "Early 2012" means Q1. Blizzard even confirmed that this was their "internal definition." Bashiok never recanted his statement, he re-confirmed it.

There's a big difference between making a typo/mistake and the mistake of accidentally revealing something.

If someone were to accidentally leak Titan MMO game details, and they were to tweet "That was a mistake," it doesn't make it any less true that the game details were real.

Bashiok: Sorry I wasn't intending to imply anything by writing first quarter, just an honest mistake. Our official target is still "early 2012". Not sure if it makes too much difference one way or the other, but I don't want people to nitpick a mistake. :)

As Bashiok said, it doesn't make any difference one way or the other.. whether he writes it as Q1 or "Early 2012", it means the same thing.

Just a mistake on my part. Q1 is definitely more literal, so I suppose I should correct it.

Here, Bashiok confirms that Q1 is definitely more literal or accurate than saying "Early 2012".

If it was a typo or a mistake, then it would have meant that "Early 2012" means Q1-Q2 or "included Q2."

And moments ago, Bashiok just RE-re-confirmed that "Early 2012" always meant Q1, but now they just changed it this week to Q2 instead.

We've only ever said "early 2012". And we just decided we'd need until Q2 this week. Seems like the conference call was as good a place as any to announce that.

It's been delayed again; from Q1 to Q2.

When Will It Be Announced?

So, apparently, Blizzard was indeed intending on announcing the release date this week just as predicted. It was probably no coincidence that all of those Battle.net changes (5+ hour outages) were taking place and you didn't see the results. They truly were preparing for the release date announcement this week.

It's also no coincidence that the Battle.net Balance and PayPal features were implemented on Monday, which I had said would logically be accompanying the Release Date announcement.

To recap, for a couple months I have been predicting a 80% chance of a release date announcement right before the Q4 call. This was based on Blizzard's "promise" that their game would be coming out in Q1. However, I had also said that if an announcement was not made on the Monday, that the chances diminish substantially, and it means that the game will be delayed to Q2 (if still not announced before the call.) This week was really their only last option.

Maybe the new delay was related to the various Battle.net Balance problems they were having?

I'm currently waiting for the call recording to go live so that I can listen to it again. Mike Morhaime possibly mentioned that the release date schedule for the Diablo 3 release would be announced in the coming weeks.

The thing is, they can't make the announcement within the next 2-3 weeks. I mean they COULD, but if they did, it would imply that they actually KNOW the release date right now. Meaning that Q2 was planned before this week and they could have still made the announcement this week.

Plus, for such a major finance related item, it doesn't make any sense to announce it immediately after a major investor call rather than before. This means that the release date announcement has to be made late February or in March. Given a minimum of 2 months lead time for all of their past titles, this means that the game will be coming out in May at the earliest.

But, as I said, if they do announce within the next 2-3 weeks, then it means they actually know the real release date TODAY. And that would be very bad, considering that they could have announced it this week and it would have benefited them more greatly, especially from an investor perspective, while also avoiding many negative incidents (such as the forum outrage and angry frustration over the past 3 blog articles.) And, if THAT happens, it means that the decision "this week" was more personally motivated rather than business. :)

I've received a couple more Path of Exile keys, and I'll be giving away one tomorrow here at 12:00PM PST.

And speaking of tomorrow,

The Activision Blizzard investor call will be taking place at 1:30PM PST.

If you want to skip the call and just find out if they're going to be making a release date announcement (which they shouldn't be), all you need to do is keep refreshing this page as 1:30PM approaches. They'll typically post their results on this page about 5 minutes before the call starts.

Just open the HTML file ("... Fourth Quarter 2011 Net Revenus and Earnings"), and if it's in there (for some bizarre reason) it will be in the Business Highlights up near the top. Also, checkout the "Company Outlook" section right below for anything about future games.

I'm expecting to be disappointed though.

* UPDATE:

And, here's the key!

FR9QU-DY7B4-EBDFH-3____

Jumbled Letters: X 3 L C

For a better part of the day, users have been unable to access their Battle.net User accounts. The reason for this was because of standard maintenance over the past 5 hours.

And it wasn't just maintenance. They have finally integrated the new Battle.net Balance system and brought it online today. EU will be next tonight.

Unfortunately, the new changes are still broken. The US Account Page links to the European Battle.Net Balance FAQ instead of the US one and the Battle.net Balance instruction page still has the incorrect URL.

So far, there has been no official announcement about this new major feature addition.

The first time the "new" Battle.net Balance feature was announced was December 9, 2011. When Blizzard revealed the new feature they said that it would be "Coming Soon" and rolling out within the weeks ahead (end of December). It has finally been implemented, but 10 weeks later.

* UPDATE: It's been about 1 hour now, and still no official announcement. I guess they're waiting for it to be rolled out in all regions first.

* UPDATE: 4:30PM now.. most of the managers will be heading home now so there's little hope of an announcement today. That just leaves the next few days.

* UPDATE: Finally! An announcement over two hours after the changes went live.

Took Long Enough

A short while ago, Supererogatory finally published a piece about my older post on Swingin' Ape Studios and the other games they were working on (including exclusive information that I had obtained from Steve Ranck, who was the President and Technical Director at SAS.) I'm surprised he hadn't discovered it back in December. :)

As you know, I've been drawing a lot of parallels about Blizzard's old abandoned games and how they might be revisiting these ideas for their Next Gen MMO.

With that in mind, there was also a tweet about Blizzard's other cancelled project Raiko (which I had also mentioned as one of their cancelled games previously.) Apparently, though, I wasn't aware that Blizzard had outsourced the game to Flextech Productions.

According to Ron Seifried from Flextech, it was a role-played game based on Japanese Samurai.

Video Production Coordinator & 3D Modeler
Blizzard Entertainment
April 1996 – April 1998 (2 years 1 month)

I co-owned Flextech Productions, a company that was financed by Blizzard Entertainment to develop a role-playing game based on Japanese Samurai. This small operation was one of only three pilot companies that Blizzard deemed worthy enough to co-develop an computer game, at a time when resources were limited and time was short. From the days leading up to E3 ’97, we created a prototype that literally wowed our prospective investors, including volumetric lighting and multi-view angles that were years ahead of its time. I also managed finances and coordinated work schedules for development of PC role playing game and managed the video production facility.

Interestingly, Blizzard had brought Stan Sakai onboard to work on the new Next Gen MMO (lore & story.) And wouldn't you know it.. he has a wealth of experience with Japanese Samurai lore. :)

People in the World of Titan

I was going to wait until mid-March to post this, but since we're on the subject of Titan, I figured I might as well do it now.

For a while, I've had a belief that the Next Gen MMO would have a much deeper focus on it's people. I'm not just talking about character customization, but rather the NPCs within the game itself. I've been imagining more of a modern world filled with people, human villains and human heroes rather than the typically mass array of fantastical creatures and fictional aliens.

So, I've been following Brian Schwab (Senior AI/Gameplay Engineer II at Blizzard). He's given a few lectures of AI, but they have always been very careful never to say what game he has been working on at Blizzard. It's in fact the Next Gen MMO and he's their Senior AI programmer. That's why I've been so interested in his lectures; because he talks about his working experiences and he's careful not to reveal ongoing projects.

At this upcoming 2012 GDC (March 5-9), Brian is giving a presentation on Psychology in Game AI.

Less A More I: Using Psychology in Game AI
Tuesday 1:45- 2:45 Room 2006, West Hall, 2nd Fl

When dealing with game AI characters, psychology can’t help but come into play. Players process what they see and experience through a filter of expectations. We expect human-like game characters to exhibit human-like traits. A by-product of the quest to improve AI decisions, however, is that characters can begin to “feel” robotic and sterile. This session will begin by showing various psychological biases that we as game players bring to the experience. We will then show how characters can be imbued with simple affects to exploit these expectations in order to seem more “alive” and believable.

In earlier (2011) presentations, he talks about simple AI behavior and how you need to find a gentle balance so that it's not too challenging for players.

But now, he's focusing on human and human-like characters along with life-life behaviors. While this is no confirmation, it's interesting how he will be discussing this particular aspect of AI given that it's something that Blizzard has not done in any of their games yet (it's only life-like behavior via animation, but never AI) and it's not something that he spends his free time on. If it was an area of AI that he was currently working on exhaustively within Blizzard, though, then he would have a wealth of practical information and real world challenges to share.

Learning about a developer or artist's background and experience is a great way to get an idea about gameplay. For example, the Next Gen MMO team is comprised of many employees with scifi backgrounds such as Ghost and the Halo MMO. The artists themselves have done a lot with with scifi, post apocalyptic, and ancient city designs and concept art. And, a couple key writers have worked on scifi stories, secret societies, or historical civilizations (17th century Japan being one of them.)

This all makes me think that life-life NPC behaviors are planned for Titan. Nothing fancy, mind you.. something that has been proven successful (Blizzard won't experiment) like Skyrim, where the world's inhabitants have daily routines, jobs, reactions, emotions, and better communication options.

And, I'm thinking there will be a lot more people and humanoids (aliens) in the game, rather than just mobs of monsters, with a lot more interpersonal communication going on.

If you have the means and web development experience, I would recommend that you start working on a simple replacement for Diablo 3 Trade Chat as soon as possible and start promoting it. (I'll help if it's a good webapp.)

Bashiok has recently confirmed that D3 will only have private chat, and there won't be any open or public channels. The reason for this change is to prevent player trading and linking of items, forcing them to use the Auction Houses (ideally, the Real Money Auction House.)

They're in there right now. Unless people are expecting general open channels? We've consistently said we won't have those.

Blizzard has consistently stated that they won't have general chat?

It was said once. By Bashiok. 6 MONTHS AGO. And he said Chat Channels were working and that it would be like Diablo II IRC style.

Chat channels are in, and working. They're more like the Diablo II IRC style than the individual chat windows like StarCraft II has.

Having ways for friends and acquaintances to create social groups has been in the long term plans of the new Battle.net for some time. Whether they're called clans or not is a smaller detail. It's just getting the time to work on adding in those types of want-to-have features. Almost assuredly not for the launch of the game, but hopefully at some point in the future.

This change is another method, just like the recent stash size changes, to force use of the RMAH. Even if the RMAH isn't used directly, it's still used indirectly in many cases since pro users will be purchasing Gold Auction House items, converting to gold, and then selling it for cash.

Players will still want to trade items and engage in private sales, though, to avoid costly Auction House expenses. Or maybe they just don't want to take the risk of selling a valuable item on the RMAH, and would rather trade for it.

So, grab yourself a good name (like D3XCHANGE.COM, which is currently available) and give the players something they need: a very user-friendly website where players can simply select a region to join a Trade Chat IRC-like interface. No sign-in or registration required, posts require Captcha to prevent spam, and just make it really easy for players to come and go from.

This can't be a forum, IRC, or any other kind of overcomplicated process or something requiring an third-party application. It has to be something simple and easy, just like IMGUR.COM.

It's too bad item linking isn't possible (due to Blizzard's strict no mod policy), but eventually a item DB feature could be added for easier linking.

* UPDATE (02/08/2012):

I already talked about this in the comments below, but decided to add it to the post since they're often skipped.

The thing you have to remember is that spam is not an issue these days. It's not 1998 anymore and spam is easily preventable. If you work for a large business, you've probably seen their standard spam filters at work. Even if you own a GMail account, their spam system is incredible. Out of hundreds of thousands of spam messages, 1 might make it through and even then it's flagged as spam.

Within online games, there are many ways to prevent spam. Rift, for example, locks out general chat until the player reaches a certain (low) level. Spam is hardly ever an issue, because their support team addresses it so quickly, players are banned, and the spammers need to purchase a brand new $60 game. It's not worth their time spending $60 each time.. not only does it take a lot of time to setup, they might only be able to target a few individuals before they get banned. Spammers gave up because it wasn't worth the time and investments.

And that's just one simple method. There are also player reporting thresholds if you're limited on support staff (if enough unique players report someone specifically, they can be silenced until an investigation takes place), timer restrictions or flood protection, keyword detection, player preferences (they need to manually join the channels, or they can squelch channels), chat can be unlocked using non-scripted processes (leveling, doing a quick puzzle in-game, etc.), or even captchas are available.

Spamming existing in Diablo 2 because Blizzard never really tried to prevent spamming (it was possibly a technology limitation). In D2, key generators existed where spammers could create as many CD-Keys as they wanted without any cost. Even if they were banned, it didn't matter.. they didn't need to purchase a new CD-Key and had thousands more available. Spamming was (is) fairly easy in WoW due to Blizzard's very limited support staff, trial accounts, and they fully support modding. Their only preventative spam measures were 20-year old basic flood protection algorithms. It's gotten a lot better now than how it was.

Diablo 3 is a completely different beast, though. It's smaller, easier to support, and easier to patch or upgrade with new changes. Most importantly, though, Diablo 3 does not permit mods, and Warden will be actively searching for any third-party applications that interact with the game. Automation is detected and users are banned quickly (spam being extremely easy to detect compared to character botting.) And every time they're banned, a replacement spambot will cost $60. It's absolutely not worth the spammers time or money. And even then, this is without a rudimentary spam chat filter. If they were to employ a simple level restriction (and prevent D3 demos from public communication), it would pretty much end spam.

You might think to yourself; "Well, if Blizzard allows spamming, then they could make money from these spammers since every time they get banned, they have to pay another $60." But spammers aren't idiots, they're not even going to be spamming within Diablo 3 in the first place due to the high cost of replacement involved.

Simply put, there's not going to be any spamming in the first place, so there's no need for spam protection!

So, Blizzard is removing an essential communication feature for either two purposes. It either forces trading to happen within the Auction Houses, or it's used to prevent annoying spam and improve the customer experience.

But.. there's not going to be any spam in the first place! That just leaves forced AH use.

* UPDATE (02/08/2012):

So, either we had a Real ID incident where the public outcry finally forced Blizzard to change their stance on Public Chat within Diablo 3, or Bashiok wasn't reading the forums for almost 4 days and he just now realized he made a mistake.

Blizzard is now implementing public chat within Diablo 3.

It was always there, of course, since JW already confirmed it was part of the game. Question is.. did they intend on actually turning it on, or did they wait to see what the community thought first?

If you haven't watched it yet, I highly recommend that you check out the following video:



I was laughing my ass off throughout the whole thing (well, except for the silly last 10 seconds). It was created by the writer of Chronicle, and it has a few celebrity cameo appearances too. Normally I don't re-post stuff like this (the video will be growing in popularity), but it's something I couldn't resist sharing.

I haven't watched Chronicle yet, but I was planning on seeing it tomorrow.

Yesterday, I touched on the Shared Stash changes and how it could be used as a business opportunity to monetize slot size upgrades and many other in-game "services".

For example, if Blizzard were to make the gold-collecting pets an extremely rare drop, they would then be sold on the RMAH. Those pets are extremely useful in-game and would be highly sought after. In essence, you're paying for a gold collection service using real cash.

I liked the idea so much, that I've decided to expand upon it.

Here are a collection of virtual items that could have low drop rates, forcing them to be sold on the Real Money Auction House:

• Items or Scrolls that magically increased your Stash, Shared Stash, and Bag Space slots. For example, a "Scroll of Minor Bag Space" that increases your slots by 3.
• Rare summon scrolls for those gold collecting pets.
• Even more rare summoning scrolls that summon pets that gain +10% gold. Just like the Daeity pet. (Blizzard, hint hint.)
• Vendor potions that increase your selling or buying prices for a fixed time or fixed number of items.
• Salvaging potions that improve salvage results for a fixed time or fixed number of items. Same for better enchants, gems, etc.
• Remove Experience Shrines, and instead have rare "+15% XP Gain" potions.
• Rare potions of Magic Find and Gold Find that complement your gear. These would be time based spells (e.g. 30 minutes.)
• Collecting multiple rare potions that can be mixed together to create new and improved effects.
• Selling "normal" Paid Services but as virtual items instead. Like Paid Name Changes, but using the RMAH instead.
• A portal scroll (like in Torchlight) where the player is transported to a small zone with above average loot and/or a guaranteed rare spawn. Because players might be paying $1-5 for something like this, it's sort of their version of DLC since it's an area inaccessible to most players unless they purchase it.
• The return of the Nephalem Cube and the Cauldron of Jordan, except that they're rare drops, they're tiered, and they require rare "upgrades". For example, you can only break down level 10 items when you get the initial item. You purchase pieces or upgrades to the item on the RMAH, and then you can break down up-to level 20 items, etc. Sort of like a cash sink vs gold sink.
• Mailbox upgrade items. Several items that allow you to upgrade your personal mailbox and it's appearance. Allows you to send more items at once and lowers postage fees.

If you have any other clever ideas for a paid in-game "service" (like experience gain, more cash, or faster travel), let me know and I might add it. :)

These items are so useful, especially for farmers and hardcore RMAH users, that Blizzard doesn't even have to restrict the items or try to force users to sell them on the RMAH. They'll be so rare and useful that they'll ALWAYS end up on the RMAH.

Other than "services", the Diablo 3 developer team has also been working through multiple iterations of the rune system. Skills could easily be bought from vendors, learned, or be personalized, but I think their intention is to make Runes sellable on the RMAH. The highest tiered runes will only be available on the RMAH, unless you're really lucky. This forces users to pay (in cash) to get new skills. I think this was the main reason why they have been having so many rune problems.. they've been forced to monetize the skill system, which significantly limits their creativity.

* UPDATE:

On February 7, 2012 Bashiok was posed the question about the removal of items (like scrolls) from the game, and if Blizzard planned on monetizing them in any way.

His response was:

@WilliamCairns1 We didn’t remove them so we could charge people for them later, if that’s your question.

So, this is the Blizzard Promise™. The Cauldron, Cube, ID scrolls, summoning scrolls, etc. will NOT be item drops when they return, players will get them for free (they won't cost gold or cash), and they will be "soulbound" (cannot be traded in any way.)

Shared Stash Changes

One of our readers asked me to comment on the reduction of the shared-stash size from 5 pages down to 3. Rather than leaving a comment, I'll just make a post about it (because it might get a little long.)

First, I want to address what Bashiok told his customers was the "reason" for this change.

found it necessary to ensure we could handle what we anticipate will be a large amount of data very quickly after release.

We obviously have room to grow if our projections are incorrect, or we just find that we eventually have the space.

He is giving users the impression that they don't have the server performance or infrastructure to handle the MASSIVE number of items that players will collect.

This is total bullshit and couldn't be farther from the truth. They've used this excuse in the past (the most immediate one to come to mind is the justification of the upcoming WoW Item Squish.)

Apparently, their databases are significantly limited and cannot scale. So I guess each character database entry can contain 500,000 fields, but 500,500 is just way too much for their databases to handle? I wish they would just be more open with their real reasons, rather than assuming their customers are idiots. (Sadly, most will believe him.)

In World of Warcraft, I had 15 guild banks with full bank tabs available on all of them. Even that wasn't enough for the number of items I had collected. And they weren't just hoarded items, either.. I was constantly selling these items and using the guild banks for crafting purposes or temporary storage of valuable AH items. In many cases, I was using them for long term storage for hundreds of Ruby Glasses (on different realms) to be sold when the prices increased.

The 5 slots in the Diablo 3 beta were not nearly enough for my needs. Even for a casual player, it was pretty limited considering that Diablo 3 is a loot centric game and Blizzard has kept pushing the loot quantity aspects of the game and reminding us of just how important massive storage will be.

Blizzard claims that they don't want players to mule, but this is exactly what was going to happen even before these changes. With the new limitation, there are going to be even more mule characters.. but aren't we limited to 10 characters per region? It's going to be brutal.

The real reason for this change has nothing to do with infrastructure or technology limitations, but rather they want players constantly "doing something" with the items. Eventually, when you don't have space for it, you'll either break it down (into gold or crafting mats) or you'll sell it. Even if you break it down into gold, eventually the gold sinks won't be enough, and you'll want to sell it. Whatever the case may be, Blizzard wants to you SELL IT and it will directly or indirectly end up on the RMAH.

Gold can only be sold on the Real Money Auction House. And it doesn't matter if you only sell items on the Gold Auction House, because someone will buy it and re-sell it on the RMAH anyways. These are all things they've learned from Diablo II.. when players run out of space, they sell it for gold, mule it (and then eventually sell it), trade it, or sell for cash on the blackmarket.

The reason for this change is simply to push RMAH use.

.. And These Changes Allow For Other Forms of Monetization

Bashiok claims that this is just temporary, so players should fully expect Blizzard to increase the number of slots shortly after their "testing" is completed. But I think that's a lie to cover up their intention to leave it as three. I think the extra slots will be made available at some point in the future. Wouldn't it be terrible and incomprehensible if Blizzard were to somehow monetize the slot size upgrades?

From a business and gaming perspective, you can disguise this activity by creating special "runes" or "item upgrades" that drop with extremely low drop chances. When you use these rare items, they will increase your bag or stash size. Because they are so valuable, players will sell these items on the RMAH. :)

Blizzard might also do this with gold-collecting pets when they make a return. Originally, Blizzard just gave these support pets to players for virtually nothing.. but when they make a return, they might be rare drops. When this happens, players lucky enough to get them will sell them on the RMAH.

In essence, you'll be spending cash to obtain an in-game service (the pets help you collect more gold.)

The beauty of this is that there will be guaranteed buyers for both the pets and "Stash-Size Increasing Runes". Hardcore RMAH users will especially be interested in purchasing all of these services or upgrades.

So, Blizzard.. if you haven't already considered this, but end up doing it, please make sure you name one of the Stash/Bag Size Upgrade items after me. :) Some players might not like it, but it's a great approach to monetizing services and upgrades within the game and very clever from a business perspective. If not, just be boring as usual and increase the shared stash pages in your next expansion pack. Too much monetization of the game can ruin your image, and most players will just be very happy to see the 5 slots back in the game.

Diablo 3 Item Duping Is Un-Possible

Over this past week, there have been Battle.net forum posts about item duping in the Diablo 3 beta. Truth is, it's actually been around for a while now in the beta but not too many users knew about it until recently.

Previously, hacking and duping was thought to be impossible in Diablo 3. Forum users, fanboys, and even gaming sites or blogs have frequently stated (sometimes as "a fact") that duping would be impossible in Diablo 3. Blizzard has said it would be impossible due to the game being online only, but it's mostly the users on the official forums who say it's impossible.. and they're never corrected.

Back in August, I had wrote all about this.

The Diablo 3 Retail will absolutely still have cheating, speed hacking, botting, and item duping tricks. Most of the item duplication you won't even know about. It will take years to finally close all of the gaps, the economy won't be anywhere where it should be (you'll never even know it though), and even then after years of patches, certain groups will still be duping items without Blizzard's knowledge. It still even happens in WoW, you just don't know about it since the "hacks" aren't shared publicly.

Two days ago, I had said to expect a new Battle.net Terms of Use to roll out soon, and once the new contract was live, users (who even signed the older one) would be presented with a new TOU that contains D3 / PayPal / RMAH related revisions.

It just went live earlier this morning.

The new Battle.net Terms of Use are actually dated "Last Revised December 10, 2011", however the official US link to the TOU (as of today) is still showing the old May 25, 2010 contract.

Interestingly, this TOU was updated on December 10, but it has only gone live just recently for others to see. It wasn't posted online for a good month and apparently Blizzard has been sitting on this new contract since December 10. On December 9, by the way, Blizzard first revealed the "Battle.net Balance" system and stated that it would be rolled out within a few weeks (it's been over 8 weeks now.)

You should see this information hit fan sites and the larger blogs later today or tomorrow.

As I had said in the earlier post, the sudden appearance of the old Terms of Use was just a prelude to a new TOU for users to sign.

Omega, Blizzard's Forum MVP, however stated that this was not the case at all. He reassured users that this was actually just an old feature, and the recent appearance was nothing more than Blizzard simply resetting the "has already read" checkbox to remind some users to review it again...

Daeity 1, Omega 0. :)

New Knowledge Base Articles Too

Some users are reporting that they were able to visit their eBalance Purchase page briefly, but that feature has now been removed and disabled. (Original US link, EU link.)

There are also new Support articles live that contain a wealth of new information. These are the US links, but EU users can search for Battle.net Balance or PayPal to see the new KB articles.

One was last updated January 20, with the others just yesterday afternoon ("Updated: 1/30/12 2:37 PM".)

Battle.net Balance Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Syncing PayPal with Battle.net

Adding Funds to Battle.net Balance

Changes to the Terms of Use

Here's what a cursory glance revealed. If I missed anything important, please let me know and I'll add it.

• A brand new section all about the new PayPal/RMAH system:
  

  6. Storing Value on the Account.
  
  A. The Account can be loaded with funds that can only be used to purchase goods and services on Battle.net. The Account is not a credit line, overdraft protection or deposit account. Unless otherwise required by law or permitted by this Agreement, all balances on the Account are non-refundable and may not be redeemed for cash. The Account does not expire, and you will not be charged fees for any reason. Funds which are loaded onto an Account do not accrue interest, and are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
  
  B. To load value onto the Account, go to https://us.battle.net/account/management/ebalance-purchase.html and follow the instructions provided to you on the page. All Account transactions are governed by the Terms of Sale, which can be viewed at https://us.battle.net/account/management/transaction-history.html. The minimum amount that can be loaded to an Account is $1.00, and the maximum daily Account balance is limited to $200.00. Blizzard reserves the right to change the maximum and minimum amounts at any time. You may load different currencies onto the Account (e.g., US Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Chilean Pesos, Argentinian Dollars) in order to engage in transactions on the Diablo III Real Money Auction Houses that use those currencies. The value loaded onto the Account shall be determined by converting the value of each of the various currencies that you have loaded onto the Account to US Dollars using the currency conversion formulas posted on http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-forex.html. All amounts loaded onto the Account are held and denominated in U.S. currency. Blizzard will not send you a statement of itemized transactions on the Account. In order to check the balance loaded on the Account, or review recent transactions on the Account, to go https://us.battle.net/account/management/transaction-history.html and follow the instructions on the page.
  
  C. Funds loaded onto the Account are used like cash for purchases on Battle.net, and you are responsible for all transactions made by someone using the Account. If you suspect that the Account has been compromised, you should contact Blizzard Customer Service at http://www.battle.net/support. The balance on the Account will only be protected from the point that Blizzard issues a message to you indicating that Blizzard has received your notice that the Account may have been compromised. From that point forward, Blizzard will take actions to freeze the remaining balance on the Account, and will unfreeze the Account once Blizzard has returned the control of the Account back to you.
  
  D. If Blizzard believes that the Account contains funds acquired illegally, either by means of compromising other Accounts or otherwise, Blizzard may remove those funds, suspend your access to the Diablo III Real Money Auction House, terminate the Account, and/or exercise any additional legal remedies available.
  
  E. If you agree to purchase goods or services from Blizzard and thereafter default upon your obligation to pay for such a purchase, you hereby agree that Blizzard shall have the right to freeze any funds currently loaded onto the Account and/or to remove and use those funds to fulfill your payment obligations in full or in part.

• The "9. Ownership" section has been expanded to include the RMAH:
  

  C. Virtual Items. Blizzard owns, has licensed, or otherwise has rights to all of the content that appears in the Service or the Games. You agree that you have no right or title in or to any such content, including without limitation the virtual goods or currency appearing or originating in any Game, or any other attributes associated with the Account or stored on the Service. Blizzard does not recognize any purported transfers of virtual property executed outside of a Game, or the purported sale, gift or trade in the "real world" of anything that appears or originates in a Game, unless such transfer is made using a marketplace administered by Blizzard, including without limitation the Diablo III Real Money Auction Houses.

• The whole section "7. The Blizzard Online Store" has been cut out of the TOU.

• The "Account Suspension/Cancelation" section has been expanded to include "a Game-specific Terms of Use", rather than just the Battle.net TOU and other agreements.

• A new entry in the "General" section has been added to let you know Blizzard will be collecting a bunch of information from your PC:
  

  E. Collection of Non-Personal Data. Blizzard shall have the right to obtain data that cannot be used to identify you from your connection to the Service without any further notice to you. Certain Games playable on the Service include a tool that will allow your computer system to forward information to Blizzard in the event that the Game crashes. This tool will collect system and driver data from your computer system during the crash, and forward a report containing that data to Blizzard.

• The "Massive Inc" in-game advertisements section, that was originally created for Starcraft 2, has been completely removed and replaced with a more general "expect there to be advertising in the game."
  

  16. DISCLOSURES; THIRD PARTY FEATURES.
  
  A. Advertising. Blizzard’s Games and the Service may incorporate third party technology that enables advertising on Battle.net and/or in certain Games playable on Battle.net, which may be downloaded temporarily to your personal computer and replaced during online game play. As part of this process, Blizzard and/or its authorized third party advertisers may collect standard information that is sent when your personal computer connects to the Internet including your Internet protocol (IP) address.

The Interesting Bits From All Of This

• Blizzard and it's third party advertisers may collect "standard information" from your computer system. They were very ambiguous about this.. they did not specifically state "non-personally identifying information" like Warden and they stated that their advertisers may collect information from your PC when it's connected to the Internet. This could pretty much mean anything at all and at any time, including personally identifying details.


• Users worldwide will soon be able to use PayPal to purchase anything you want from the Blizzard Store, and it's no longer just limited to WOW Subscriptions.


• There seems to be a PayPal / Battle.net location check, like what I was predicting months ago.


• The Battle.net Balance maximum limit is $500.00 USD.


• You can add funds in increments of $10.00, $20.00, $50.00 or $100.00. Or, users can select "Other Amount". According to the Terms of Use, a minimum amount of $1.00 must be loaded and there is a maximum daily balance of $200.00 permitted.
  


• If Blizzard suspects that you cheated in any way to acquire your Battle.net Balance funds, they can remove all of your Battle.net Balance and suspend your access to D3 or your Battle.net account. There are a few other sections that also discuss the non-refundable conditions for your Battle.net Balance credits.


• If a prepaid credit card is declined, there's a $1.00 temporary hold of funds for each transaction attempt.


• Regional stuff: ".. you will be able to add value to your Battle.net Balance using your local currency (in EU, for example, players will be able to use Euros, GBP, and RUB). In certain regions where game realms and servers are shared by players in multiple countries, you will be given the option to choose one single currency. However, please note that Battle.net Balances for different currencies are tracked separately and cannot be used interchangeably. For example, you cannot use Battle.net Balance purchased using U.S. dollars in a non-USD-based auction house, and you are not able to transfer Battle.net Balance purchased in one currency to or from Battle.net Balance purchased with a different currency."


• Right now, you can't transfer B.Net Balance as a gift to others, but they plan on adding that feature in the future.


• Battle.net Balance cannot be used as an automated payment method for recurring WOW subscriptions.


• This TOU was revised specifically for Diablo 3, but you can expect another revision to happen as the SC2 Marketplace gets closer to completion.


• If you're a regular reader here, you'll know that I had been anticipating these changes this week since they were needed as a precursor to the release date announcement. Once the announcement is made (Monday, Feb 6 being the most probable at this time), the Battle.net Balance system will be fully implemented with the D3 Digital Pre-Download being made available sometime afterwords. After this is done, it will also be followed by new posts and official announcements about the PayPal and B.Net Balance system with instructions on how players can setup their accounts and start using it right away. All that remains now is if the actual release date will be 2 months from the announcement (traditions), or a condensed timeframe (which has been discussed in the past.)

On a final note.. boo-yah.

* UPDATE:

The "Battle.net Balance" and "PayPal Syncing" Knowledge Base Articles have just been removed by Blizzard. :)

I'm not sure if this is just temporary, or if they weren't supposed to reveal these Knowledge Base articles until the announcement (or later this week). If you didn't catch them earlier, you can still see their Google cache.

Go to Google.com and type:

"cache:http://us.battle.net/support/en/article/syncing-paypal-with-battlenet"
or
"cache:http://us.battle.net/support/en/article/adding-funds-to-battlenet-balance-3100032"

* UPDATE:

The "Syncing PayPal with Battle.Net" article is back up, and it's now showing an "Updated: Jan 31, 2012".

The "Battle.net Balance" article has been down for several hours now. It's possible that the Battle.net Balance article wasn't supposed to be put up until another announcement (front page post) took place first. Obviously, right now players can't even add money to their Battle.net Balance accounts so the support article is useless.

If you try to sign-in to the Battle.net website, you might have noticed that a new "Terms of Use" contract appears. You have the "option" of signing it if you want to access your Battle.net account and play your games. (The TOU pop seems to be region specific, yesterday Renvex saw it, but no one else received it or could confirm.)

The Battle.net contract itself is actually a really old one (May 26, 2010), but this extra page has been added to the Battle.net signin system because Blizzard plans on rolling out a new contract shortly.

The current TOU even has Blizzard's old Starcraft 2 in-game advertising partner (Massive Inc.) still in the contract.. even though they went defunct years ago.

When the new contract rolls out, you can expect to sign another brand new contract. Whenever a new contract or update is made, you'll need to sign the new one (just like what you have been doing within the games themselves.)

For the next contract before the Diablo release, you should see some new regional and user-specific security restrictions added especially for Blizzard's new region free game(s). I've been predicting these changes for a while now, including changes like this to Battle.net and a new "authentication system to intelligently track your login locations" which has recently been added.

You'll be happy to know, though, that this new Battle.net License page is tethered to the release date announcement.

When the release date is announced, it will be accompanied by D3 costs and availability, Digital Download information, and most importantly both the Battle.net Balance service and the PayPal RMAH integration will be finally available within your account. Users can configure and setup their payment systems in preparation for the future release. (The Release Date announcement should, logically, come before the B.Net Balance/PayPal integration though.)

It needs some major updates for D3 because in it's current state, for example, Blizzard expressly prohibits the buying and selling of gold or items in Diablo 3. :)

Virtual Items. Blizzard owns, has licensed, or otherwise has rights to all of the content that appears in the Service or the Games. You agree that you have no right or title in or to any such content, including without limitation the virtual goods or currency appearing or originating in any Game, or any other attributes associated with the Account or stored on the Service. Blizzard does not recognize any purported transfers of virtual property executed outside of a Game, or the purported sale, gift or trade in the "real world" of anything that appears or originates in a Game, unless otherwise expressly authorized by Blizzard in writing. Accordingly, you may not sell in-game items or currency for "real" money, or exchange those items or currency for value outside of a Game, without Blizzard's written permission.

The new contract will have all of the new updates for Diablo 3. Some of it might even contain spoilers since it will reveal information about the service or features that we currently don't know about. Possibly even changes for future games (like in-game ads.)

So, when the License goes live, not only will the new Battle.net features be live, but also new information about the services will be announced (like the RMAH region information we have all been waiting for.)

Interestingly, the contract currently forbids "Data Mining." Blizzard forbids you from obtaining or attempting to obtain any information about the Service (Battle.net). But everyone who reads these TOUs are actually data mining them for information. That makes reading or learning information from these TOU's against their policy. Apparently, my Battle.net account is at risk of deletion or suspension because I data mine information from the TOU. :)

Other than that, I've been told that forum threads discussing the appearance of this new Battle.net TOU page are being deleted by Blizzard for some reason. If any of you have more information on that development, let me know.

* UPDATE (01/30/12):

Users are beginning to experience some of the transparent changes made to Battle.net. Previously, users were able to change their address and country in their Battle.net settings.. but not anymore. In order to change your country, you now need to call technical support and you need to provide proof of your new address.

However, with the coming changes to Battle.net and the inclusion of Battle.net Balance and the Diablo III Auction House, it has become more important again for us to ensure that players are performing transactions in their local currency (where possible) and that this data is correct.

This was one of the many Battle.net changes for the RMAH that I have been anticipating for a while.

Looks like they're gearing up for the Battle.net Balance/PayPal announcement, and maybe something else right before it. *fingers crossed*

Possibly the last one for a while. Will be giving away this one tomorrow (Jan 30) at 12:00PM PST.

This week and next should be quite exciting. Interesting posts here will pick up once there's finally new information available. I'm mostly looking forwards to creating some gold guides, though, once the game goes live.

* UPDATE:

Beta Key: FRY75-HWB8Z-EHN6C-9____

Letters: J E 2 Y

I will be giving away another key at 12:00PM PST today. Make sure you check out the earlier giveaways to see how this works.

* UPDATE:

Here you go: FRE47-BL7RB-8F3T2-J____

Letters: U J Y S

A mass layoff notice has gone out to employees at Bandai Namco Games America Inc. in San Jose, CA.

The first group of 37 will be laid off on 03/06/12, and another group of 8 will be laid off on 03/30/12. They're legally required to be informed of this 60 days in advance. (I've been monitoring mass layoff notifications for gaming companies in California specifically since those multiple Blizzard layoffs.)

Most recently, the San Jose office launched Soulcalibur for the iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad 2.

Activision, THQ, Bethesda.. this all happens around the same time every year. Right before their shareholders meetings. :)

* UPDATE (02/17/2012):

They're laying off another batch of 14 San Jose personnel on 03/27/12.

This brings it to a total of 59 layoffs during March.

Yesterday, one of our readers raised a good point about Blizzard cannibalizing their own games, especially if they plan on releasing 3 games in one year (which would indeed be quite unusual.) I figured I would make a post about it, because it's an interesting topic.

Basically, there's only a fear of cannibalizing World of Warcraft players.

There's little concern about taking players away from Starcraft or Diablo. If WOW steals away players from D3, it doesn't matter because D3 players already bought the game, but WOW has a subscription fee which provides Blizzard continued revenue. The same with SC2; if WOW were to somehow steal away SC2 players, who cares.. they already bought the game.

This can also apply to Titan, especially if it uses a new revenue model (both RMAH and Product Placement/Advertising combined.)

WOW is a subscription based game which constantly generates revenue. Diablo and Starcraft are not, they are only one-time costs (excluding DLC of course) so those players are of no consequence.

To help even better explain: World of Warcraft PROFIT needs to be protected from cannibalization, not the PLAYERS. :)

So, what Blizzard needs to do is create new systems or methods where players will still contribute to subscription fees, but they will also one-time purchase their other Blizzard titles.

This is why the WOW Annual Pass was such a great idea. It locks players into a 12-month purchase plan, but they will still be getting the Diablo 3 game. It comes with a beta invite to MOP, so even though they might play Diablo 3 for a few months, they're still guaranteed to return to WOW when MOP releases (and probably 'coincidentally' close to when the WOW Annual Pass expires.)

Blizzard wants players to use Diablo 3 for the RMAH, and start building up Battle.net Balance Credit, and use that to purchase other Blizzard titles and monthly WOW subscription purchases.

Because the RMAH system is so critical (especially for their future), it's the reason why HOTS nor MOP will be released before Diablo 3. They want players to start building up B.Net Bucks and get comfortable with the new credit system.

Diablo 3 actually complements MOP very well (it won't cannibalize players) because it's a "free game" (or a one-time cost), and since there's no subscription, there's no rush to play it and players will use D3 to pay for their WOW subscription.

Blizzard will also find other new or clever ways of motivating you to use your B.Net Bucks or ensure you buy WOW:

• Release MOP 6+ months after D3, say, when most WOW players and Diablo fans already own D3.
• If they can roll out the D3 RMAH, and then the SC2 Arcade, users from both the Diablo and Starcraft franchises will be selling virtual items on those systems and building up Battle.net Credit to purchase other titles or subscriptions.
• This is also why it's so important to increase their game catalog. (Talked about in other posts about Activision games in Battle.net.) If the RMAH and Arcade are highly successful, they'll need to increase their Blizzard Store merchandise, features, and titles. I think they're going to wait and see what happens with the RMAH first though.
• Blizzard may drop prices if B.Net Credits are used to purchase games or subscriptions for friends and family members. You might not be able to get a SC2 gamer playing WOW, but you can at least get them to buy gifts for their friends. And, perhaps you can receive bonuses yourself (appeal to our selfishness) if you invite friends.. like, special banners or aesthetics in D3 or SC2. WOW already does something like this for friend invites (power leveling, mounts, free subscription time, etc.)
• The B.Net Credit will be much easier to setup than the PayPal system. There will more restrictions and punishment in place for using the PayPal system (e.g. hefty cash out charges to encourage you to use the B.Net Balance system instead.)
• When Diablo 3 is released (or right before), make WOW as undesirable as possible. Implement changes that piss off players, don't make any updates, make them bored, etc. The intention is to get them playing Diablo 3, but then make MOP extremely desirable again when it comes out (very positive changes and an overpowered Monk class until after Christmas, etc.)
• For the above, this will probably be around the time too that Blizzard removes the 10-character restriction from realms. Removing that restriction is a great way to bring players back.
• Make certain WOW virtual items (specialty pets or aesthetic changes) only available via B.Net Balance credits.
• Make certain payment methods more difficult, region locked, or restricted to control which methods players are more statistically probable to use. Hard to see buttons, missing instructions or support, etc.
• Special events where users can save money using B.Net Credits for purchases. For example, you can save 5-15% on the MOP or HOTS pre-download if you purchase using B.Net Credits earned through Diablo 3.

Ah, here we go. Blizzard is going to be releasing three games this year (D3, HOTS & MOP.)

And you thought I was crazy yesterday for suggesting that Blizzard was going to release 3 games this year. :)

What's nice about this quote, is that it's not from Bashiok or Zahrym (which would immediately discredit what they're saying): "we're set on channelling that into the three games we have coming out this year."

As you noticed, he didn't say "plan on coming out" but rather they're going to channel their energy into the three games that they DO having coming out this year. :)

I'm going to cautiously downgrade this to "Blizzard is 'planning' on releasing 3 games this year" though. But, it could be like what I was saying earlier; they're getting all of the bad stuff (Blizzcon 2012 cancellation) out of the way first, and they'll have a surprise announcement on (or just before) the Feb 9 2012 Quarterly Shareholders meeting.

* UPDATE:

A double confirmation!

Rafal6613 pointed out a VGA backstage interview video with Blizzard that didn't make any rounds on the internet and went largely unnoticed.

In it, Mike Morhaime says "We've got 3 titles coming out next year." That should make investors quite happy this year.



* UPDATE:

Within 24 hours, Blizzard deleted the forum thread I linked. It was a very short thread, and very tame, so there weren't any policy violations that would have warranted a deletion (if anything, it would have been locked.)