Blizzard hasn't said anything official on the matter, but most players are assuming that new realms will not be created in anticipation of World of Warcraft's next expansion pack.
The following was even posted by a Community MVP on the WoW Forums:
As of right now, every post I have been able to find on the matter (official and unofficial forums) claims that "word on the street" is that no new servers will be opened. So that's the belief of most WoW players. I can understand the logic: there's no growth, so why would they increase the number of realms?
But, the problem is that most players base their decision on declining subscription figures and subsequently mistake servers with realms.
Each realm is just a virtual object operated by a cluster of servers. Some realms utilize more servers than others, and information on multiple realms is actually stored on the same servers. There are a ton of processes and activities taking place on servers that in fact manage multiple realms.
It would be very easy to create a new realm (it's just a data object) without actually changing the quantity of servers.
New Realms ≠ New Purchases or Servers
Blizzard CEO Mike Morhaime even stated that there was no growth from December 2008 to February 2010.
To be clear, there was no player growth when WOTLK launched however Blizzard still created 12 new realms in the US.
Nov/08 - Dawnbringer
Nov/08 - Drak'Tharon
Nov/08 - Fizzcrank
Nov/08 - Galakrond
Nov/08 - Grizzly Hills
Nov/08 - Gundrak
Nov/08 - Saurfang
Jan/09 - Borean Tundra
Jan/09 - Garrosh
Jan/09 - Wyrmrest Accord
Jan/09 - Winterhoof
Mar/09 - Nesingwary
At the time, player distribution across the realms was even the same as it now. (i.e. 50-60% of servers half full, and an even split between high population and low population servers.)
Keep in mind that each "realm" also has it's own set of rules. A "high population" on one realm does not necessarily mean the same quantity of users on another realm. It all depends on server load, distribution, and how it's configured. Why leave multiple servers idling when their processing power can be used to support the load of other realms?
For example, let's say each realm can only support a maximum of 6,000 players on each faction. The realm never even hits half that amount (of players) during peak times. So, then you just create a new realm, split up the servers managing the one realm into two, now suddenly you have 2 realms without increasing the number of servers. And both servers can be "upgraded" from low population to medium/high population each. If the servers start to get stretched, additional servers (running low load) can be simply added to this cluster to increase number of players. Or an existing realm can just be opened up to free transfers. (This is just an example and not exactly what happens. There are actually hundreds of servers/blades involved. From a server administration perspective though, it's easy to manage and coordinate.) =]
Why would Blizzard even care about opening new realms?
For the same reason they did it for Wrath of the Lich King.
We know that there was no actual player growth at the time, and servers weren't over capacity with players (in fact about 50% of the realms were at half capacity), so why did they create new realms?
Company Perception and Reputation Management:
Making an announcement that you have to create new realms for "unexpected growth" or "rapidly increasing user base" or "significant number of sales" gives the impression of player growth. Even if you just announce that new servers "need to be added" it gives the perception that player counts are growing.
Investors, share holders, managers, and players love to hear that. It reinstates confidence in the company. =]
Blizzard also wants to be known as the #1 provider of the best MMORPG in the world. So you need to control the perception of your company and give the impression of constant growth and more profits. (Even though Quarterly Reports show hardly any gains at all, and actual player counts are really about half of "active subscribers".)
It Makes The Players Happy:
It's good for public relations too. Players want new realms to be created, so that they can create characters from scratch and try to get ahead of the others.
There's also the fear of high levels harassing the new low level characters. Remember all of the 70-80's hanging around Outlands waiting for the freshly made Death Knights to step through the portal? That same fear exists now. Except now, it's level 80-85's that can fly well overhead hunting Level 20's and finding them very quickly. With new realms, at least the option is available to start brand new just like everyone else.
There's also nothing worse than joining a server when everyone is already Level 80, there's no low-to-mid level advancement and all of the zones are empty.
Throw on your tinfoil hats! New realms might actually mean reduced servers and player counts.
Something interesting occurred to me while I was researching this. I really have no idea if this happens or not, but it's a possibility and I'm just throwing it out there. =]
Because the exact number of server-to-realm ratio has never been announced, and the fact that servers manage multiple "parts" of different realms, it's entirely possible to reduce the physical number of servers (because of declining players) but also create new realms with the added bonus of increasing customer/investor confidence.
As new realms open, all that is required is changing the internal definition of what a Low, Medium, or High population server implies. A high population could mean 10,000 concurrent users but it could just as easily mean 8,000 concurrent users.
People will get dispersed as realms are split up, but because of the large size of World of Warcraft - would anyone even notice? Factions all gather together at single locations anyways and if realms are split up, users would just assume that they see less players while questing because the world is so vast and they could be anywhere.
If it ever became an issue ("gasp! the users are starting to notice"), all that's required is opening up free transfers to the realm. =]
So basically, there shouldn't be any new realms based on WoW's growth, but it makes logical sense to launch new realms just like they did for WOTLK (which was in a similar circumstance, and users ALSO said there wouldn't be new realms at the time.) Of course, now that this information is public and Blizzard knows-that-you-know.. who knows? =]
In 2008, Vaneras wrote:
"The decision of whether or not to open a new realm is entirely based on the population size on existing realms, which is something that we are continuously monitoring. We will of course open new realms if and when it is needed :-)"
In 2008, Nethaera wrote:
"New realms are released as we feel they are necessary and we don't normally announce them ahead of time. I can't answer any of the above since they are all contingent on timing based need. If we end up needing more realms, we'll create them based for the specific purpose they need to fill."
In 2008 and 3 days before release, Nethaera wrote:
"It's too early to say whether these will be necessary or not."
In 2010, Crepe wrote:
"As always, new realm are opened due to population issues. If you wish new realms, you need to find 200,000 of your closest friends to subscribe."
In 2010, Crepe wrote:
"New realms are put up when population needs require them. We won't know until they go up."
If Mekkatorque was here, he'd say the chances of new realms being opened are less than 12.7%. =]
Other than that, the launch of Cataclysm
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FYI - Another official posting on the WoW Forums:
I had mentioned earlier how it's very common for players to sell gold to purchase WoW hourly subscriptions.
"China has an internet cafe on every corner. Every single of them can access the web for 'codes' that can be entered into the blizzard website for time. For 15 rmb (2 dollars) you can play world of Warcraft with all expansions for 2000 minutes. (For this reason I have 8 accounts, because I do pay monthly fees and often play 2 or more accounts at once I can pick and choose what I like to have online. I really enjoy the freedom provided by metered time instead of a monthly subscription." (Source)But it gets more interesting..
In China, the majority of workers (primarily Service and Industry jobs) work an entire day for less than 60rmb ($9 USD). Less than one hour of work in World of Warcraft (grinding gold) can easily cover your WoW subscription for several months. But more than that, 1-2 hour of gold farming each day can pay for your food, rent, game subscriptions, internet fees, toys/gadgets, etc. You can actually make more money playing the game then you can from a real job.
Think you can make 4500G per day? That's the same pay as an Electrical Engineer. 3000G per day? No need to be a Professional Nurse, just play WoW - you can make the same amount of money and play a healer! (Source)
Given all of the gold making guides, you don't even need to be that skilled at farming.. even casual players using standard farming techniques can pay for their living expenses.
But isn't that against Blizzard's Terms of Use?
In NA/EU, it's frowned upon to buy/sell accounts or gold. However in China, WoW is operated by NetEase and there are different rules surrounding the game.
It's actually perfectly acceptable and quite common for players to share accounts, buy/sell items, gold, or accounts, or convert virtual gold/items into real world money. WoW gold is really just another common commodity in China and can be bought or sold quite easily. =]
Recently, the Chinese government had announced that they are "banning gold farmers" with new legislation. However, it's been exaggerated by news outlets and there are tons of loop holes in their proposed system. In fact, their new laws will have no impact on gold farming at all (it's actually targeting something else).. and they don't even have any enforcement measures for the buying and selling of in-game virtual items.
China Banning Gold Farmers
Gold Farming Confusion
Gold Farming Ban Not Really A Ban
In NA/EU, you may have a difficult time trying to find trust-worthy gold sellers, or someone to sell your account to. It's all very shady, the services are few and far between, and it can be a challenge to find someone you can trust.
In China, however, it's the exact opposite. There are large (and trusted) businesses and corporations that focus on the sale and purchasing of virtual items. Gold or items can be bought at gaming stores, convenience stores and city streets.
QQ Coins can also be used in exchange for gold or in-game services, which can be converted into real merchandise on many online or gaming stores. Occasionally, you may also receive a random whisper from a gold seller in-game. They give you their QQ (IM) address and you can pay them with QQ points which can be obtained with real money. The Chinese Ebay "Taobao" and other Chinese websites sell gold online directly to your WoW mailbox too. =]
There's no secret "cloak-and-dagger" activities (like in NA/EU) required to sell your account or gold - it's all done right out in public and it's very much the norm.
I'm actually kind of jealous. I have over 300k of gold idling that I'd love to sell. =]
"The most common way to buy gold, however, is to trade time card codes in-game for gold to a person who needs a card. It's entirely possible to never pay any of your own money to play WoW if your dedicated to earning gold from others and have a niche as either a raider or power level or farmer." (Source)
Because of this standard industry in China, it's the reason why so many players are engaged in gold farming activities (if a couple hours playing WoW paid more than your real job, wouldn't you take advantage?), gold has real value, and it has completely reshaped the in-game and real world economies in China.
Because of this paradigm shift, players also engage in gold making "services" that you wouldn't normally see on NA/EU realms. And it's also very easy for new characters to be power leveled and geared up (15 rmb/$2 USD right now can buy you high-end epics and many hours of power-leveling.)
But more on those unique "gold making services" in the Part 5.
As most of you know, China uses a different WoW subscription model then the rest of the world. They pay by the hour using game cards (that can be recharged) and they only pay for what they play.
In China, WoW can be downloaded for free and WoW gamecards can be bought virtually anywhere - game stores, online, 7 Eleven, corner stores, etc. 30 yuan will buy you 4000 minutes of gametime and 15 yuan will buy you 2000 minutes of gametime. That's $0.06 per hour played.
(If adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) however, that's about equivalent to $0.24 per hour in the US.)
For that same amount (30 yuan), that can also buy you approximately 2000G. So, it's very common for players to sell their gold to purchase WoW hourly subscriptions, but I'll talk more on that later.
Although Korea and Taiwan are in East Asia, they pay monthly based subscriptions just like NA and Europe. Although, Koreans also have an added pay-by-the-day option ($1.65 per day vs $8 per month) for Starcraft 2 or they can play for free if they have a WoW Subscription. =]
NetEase Operating Costs
According to NetEase, they spend approximately $146,000 per day to maintain their servers. That's $4.44M per month on average.
By comparison, Blizzard US spends $4.25 million per month to operate their own servers.
There are approximately 489 realms total in US and EU, 39 in Taiwan, 33 in Korea, and 342 realms in China. At the time of initial testing, however, that China realm count was much lower. Those costs seem pretty high, but because they were done during testing phases, the figures have probably come down a little since then.
Total Number of CWOW Players?
Blizzard has never officially announced the total number of players from each geography, but rather an all encompassing "11.5M" figure.
Because of the low subscription fee (6 cents per hour), you might be thinking that Blizzard can easily pad the numbers. For example, there might be 3 million players that only play 1 hour a week. But the studies mentioned in the earlier post involved tens-to-hundreds of thousands of average players and several million data points. So their average estimates would be pretty close.. but even then, that's why the use of specific words (estimates and averages) are so important. =]
Now according to NetEase, World of Warcraft makes up about one-third of NetEase's total online gaming revenue. NetEase also provides online game services for Fantasy Westward Journey, Westward Journey Online II, Westward Journey Online III, Tianxia II and Datang.
NetEase Total Online Gaming Revenue (in $USD)
Quarter Ending March 31, 2010
Gross Profit: $172.32 million
Total Revenue: $159.0 million
NetEase WoW Revenue: $53 million
Blizzard's Licensing Fees: $29 million
Quarter Ending June 30, 2010
Gross Profit: $175.72 million
Total Revenue: $162.4 million
NetEase WoW Revenue: $54.1 million
Blizzard's Licensing Fees: $30 million
Note: Depending on the terms of the contact, Blizzard's royalties (55%) can either be based on net revenue or gross profits. I'm using the lesser figure in my calculations (to favor Blizzard once again.) Blizzard also collects a $25 million flat licensing fee and minimal annual revenue shares of $180 million from NetEase. They got a pretty sweet deal by going with NetEase instead of The9 - they were only giving Blizzard a 22% royalty.
By going by the most recent revenue numbers, and the fact that the average WoW player puts in 4 hours per day:
28h per week = 121.24 hours per month x 3 months = 363.72 hours per quarter = $21.82 per quarter spent by the average CWOW player (~$7.27 per month)
That's approx. 2.6 million players in March and 2.7 million players in June.
Previous figures put the worldwide WoW population around 6.7 million active subscribers (versus 11.5M), but that was assuming an average of $15 per month. Let's plug these new numbers in to get a more accurate subscriber count.
Blizzard Gross Profits: $301.75 million (incl. royalties)
Blizzard Operating Costs: $12.75 million
Blizzard Net Revenue: $259 million (excluding China)
At a rate of $15 per month, that means that there are 6.0 million players.
However, WoW Europe pays 12.99€ (~$25 USD) per month. And there are much more EU players than NA, so that number is fairly inflated and Blizzard is probably making somewhere closer to $20 per month per subscription on average.
At a rate of $20 per month, that means that there are 4.5 million subscriptions outside of China.
That's a maximum total of 7.2 million players worldwide during the quarter ending June 30. (Note: This figure does not include the banned vs. growth rate figures or the sale of services - hence the reason why it is a maximum figure. I'm just looking at the range between $15-20 per month in subscriptions only, however retail/digital sales and services are a HUGE portion of their revenue but are not included. Because of this, the number of players are much less than approximated above.)