Whatever issues are revealed tomorrow (e.g. "core system mechanics"), they obviously can't say polish, bugs, player balance or runes. They'll need to come up with something really good.

Jay Wilson's post just went up moments ago.

So, Jay has been preparing this for a few weeks now and everyone was anticipating a significant post detailing the drastic mechanic changes and huge additions being made.

Boy, are they in for a surprise.

It ended up being exactly what I thought; they're still "polishing the game, the rune system, and minor UI changes". The same stuff they've been doing for months and months. It really can't get any more obvious than this; the recent explanation is not a good reason for the delay.

They're cutting out a ton of stuff (Cauldron, Identification, Mystic Artisan, Nephalem Cube, etc.) but they're adding one extra button. And, they're still constantly "tuning and making balance changes."

I am completely shocked that they tried to pass this off as their excuse.. I was expecting something really big, at the very least, that could have possibly explained the long delay. I imagine that others are beginning to clue in now after reading that "big update".

There must be something else going on. One suspicion is the RMAH, Battle.net Balance, and system integration with PayPal which has been postponed by several weeks now.

* UPDATE:

I'm not sure I really agree with this @Diablo tweet:

Jay Wilson (@angryrobotics) just released a wealth of insight into dev iteration & core game systems changes inc: http://ow.ly/8yAHo #D3

A wealth of information and core game system changes? Here's a summary of everything they actually did:

• We have been finishing and polishing the content for about a year now.
• Oh, and there's lots of work left to be done. Over the past few years, we've been tuning and making balance changes too.
• Most recently, we removed Scrolls of Identification. That took us about 5 minutes.
• We also removed the Mystic Artisan. Oh wow, this was a tough one.. took all day.
• We removed the Cauldron of Jordan and Nephalem Cube. 5 minutes.
• We removed salvage option from common white items. 5 minutes.
• We moved the fifth quick slot button. That took a while.. it was like 30 minutes of work.
• We moved the Stone of Recall button. 5 minutes of work.
• We moved the Salvage button to the Blacksmith Artisan instead. 10 minutes of work.
• We moved character stats to the Inventory UI. 15 minutes.
• We renamed Attack, Precision, Defense, and Vitality to Strength, Dexterity, Intellect and Vitality. In a way, we sort of brought back Willpower, which was actually removed from the game in late 2010. This didn't take any time at all, because we've already been experimenting with attribute changes over the past few years.
• We were able to complete all of these massive changes in 3 days, but trust me, we're still doing A LOT OF STUFF right now. It's like really busy. That's the Blizzard Promise™.

Basically, art, music, and programming are the forms of content in game development that take up the most amount of time. The changes that Jay Wilson described are all simple back-end database adjustments (text and numbers).. there has been no new content designed or added.. only deleted. Even the attribute changes are minor and they have been reworking it for years now.. even longer than they have been experimenting with runes. Everything described is nothing "new", it's really just polish.

* UPDATE:

I just want to make a clarification here. Jay Wilson's post shouldn't scare you at all.. this is just a stall for time to ease player frustration and to give the impression that some "real work" has been done (because it has nothing to do with the SK delays.) :)

To me, this does not mean a delay at all. Mark my words: all of these changes are DONE and they were probably completed weeks or months ago. Everything Jay detailed will very likely be in the next beta patch or patches. This IS and WAS NOT a lot of work and it should not worry you at all. This is all minor stuff that has been completed and they do NOT have a lot of work ahead of them.

Jay's post does not mean a delay. So, don't panic.

My only concerns now are with the B.Net Balance system and PayPal.

* UPDATE:

Post from Bashiok:

Keep in mind everything detailed in the article today is already in the game, and most of it is complete. Once you get Patch 10 and see that, I think it may sink in that these aren't theoretical changes we're still working on, they're changes we've completed.

Ah, here we go.. you guys need to start reading between the lines! :)

Read Bashiok's entire post; he just echoes what I've been saying. Most of this was probably completed a long time ago.. the Jay Wilson post is just to show that "something is being done". But it's all just minor stuff, meaning that there's something else delaying the game.

Possible Site Issues Tomorrow

• There's a SOPA protest / blackout tomorrow. I don't think Blogspot is planning anything, but don't be surprised if something weird happens to this blog since IMGUR is going down (and some of the media here is hosted by IMGUR.)

Take Two Interactive

• The Max Payne 3 release date has been announced by Take Two. XBOX/PS3 on May 15 and May 18, PC version on May 29 and June 1. I won't be buying the game myself, so I don't really care.. but what I do care about is finding out what Rockstar Toronto's next game will be. With MP3 out of the way, we might finally learn more about what's been going on at Rockstar Toronto, and I'm hoping that they haven't given up on RDR PC.

• Take Two's Quarterly (ending Dec 31, 2011) Shareholder's meeting will be held on February 2, 2012. That's why you have been seeing a large quantity of news announcements and game releases recently. There should be a couple more announcements before the call too (stuff I probably don't care about). I'm not really expecting much on the call, but there should be some talk about GTA V and expectations for the year (which we already know what's coming out for the most part.)

• UPDATE (01/19/12): "There should be a couple more announcements before the call too (stuff I probably don't care about)."
  
  LOL.. and here's one of them now.
  
  BioShock will have a "1999 Mode" which is basically a harder difficulty level and it will include new "tweaks and features" (ie, a nostalgic UI.)
  
  This is what they're announcing to impress their shareholders with? This doesn't exactly fill me with much confidence. I'm getting the feeling that the Take Two meeting isn't going to go very well.. so, don't be surprised if GTA V gets pushed back.

Activision Blizzard

• Speaking of Quarterly Meetings, Activision Blizzard's meeting has not been announced yet but it should be very soon. They always announce 3 weeks (or less) prior to the meeting, and the meeting will be taking place likely on February 8 or 9. If a Diablo 3 release date announcement is made, it will be announced BEFORE this meeting. And traditionally, release date announcements are made on a Monday.

• During this call, they will also be detailing their forecast for the year. During a previous investor call (May 9 2011), Thomas Tippl said "Our outlook at this time does not include a new game from Blizzard in 2011. Should Blizzard not release a major title this year, we would expect, for planning purposes, to launch a minimum of 2 Blizzard titles in 2012." I'm expecting the minimum, and not confident that Blizzard will be launching 3 titles this year. It should be HOTS launched with Diablo 3 in 2012, but you never know. Whether it's HOTS or MOP, expect it's release date sometime in early 2013.

Other Stuff

• Star Trek Online goes Free to Play today.

• TERA Online's release date has just been announced today too. It's arriving May 1, 2012. TERA has the type of fluid fast-paced hack-and-slash type action that I am expecting in Titan actually. Unfortunately, the game is subscription based so I probably won't be playing it. If the game was developed by Turbine, I'd say that this game was definitely another free-to-play candidate, but this is En Masse/Bluehole and due to their fledgling status, I'm expecting them to be rather stubborn (to the end) in their business decisions. So, I'm not hopeful of a full F2P version for quite a while.

• Alcatraz just aired. I haven't watched it yet, but I'll probably be making a post about it after I do. I am fully expecting it not to do well though.

• I've been thinking about a post on overcoming content consumption through a new skills-based RPG leveling system (and how it's more important than items), rather than the standard RPG games that we have now. New information is fairly scarce at the moment (a few dozen Blizzard Facebook and Twitter accounts were locked down or deleted after some of my last posts), so I might bore you with anecdotes or find some other ways to stall for time just like Blizzard has been doing. :)

UPDATE: Layoffs Still Being Confirmed

• I don't know if you've still been following this or not, but there are still names from my original suspect list being terminated. Matt Milizia is the latest, who has finally confirmed that he is indeed no longer employed by Blizzard (probably given notice 4-5 weeks ago, depending on how long he was employed). Matt, as you might recall, was on that list with Paul Richards (who was also confirmed on his Blogspot account that he was terminated.) There's still two other names I suspect, but I'm still waiting for them to update another source to confirm if they are employed or not (unfortunately they abandoned their accounts, so it's difficult to say.)
  
  This was a conspiracy theory, remember? Blizzard couldn't possibly have laid off more than 1 person (John Staats) and there's no way a Facebook Profile update could ever mean a change in employment. :)
  
  Over a dozen names have been confirmed so far, but this is considered meaningless and completely unreliable:
  
  

UPDATE (01/19/12): Activision Blizzard Investor Call Announced

• Ahh.. there it is. Activision Blizzard will be releasing their Q4 2011 results on February 9, 2012.
  
  If we don't get a release date announcement on or by Monday, February 6 or we get the sense that there won't be an announcement that day, I think the game might be pushed back quite a bit more. :(

Giving away another beta key here tomorrow at 1:00PM PST.

* UPDATE:

FRRDD-ZTPJL-GMSJX-J____

Letters: A 8 L K

Good luck!

I had mentioned before that I hoped other developers and publishers would be keeping a sharp eye Diablo 3's Real Money Auction House progress.

Almost all ratings boards (except for South Korea) don't concern themselves with gambling and they leave regulation up to other government bodies. So, if any gambling inquiries or concerns do arise, it will be well after Diablo 3 launches.. possibly even a year or two later.

And because Activision Blizzard's army of lawyers reviewed and approved this new system, they'll be there to defend it in case of trouble (potentially setting new precedents in legal cases). Other video game businesses can use this to their advantage and implement the same RMAH system in their own games without concern for legal entanglements.

I wonder, though, if other gaming organizations are monitoring these developments?

RMT is very common in games, but Blizzard has created a unique method that can completely change the online gambling industry, and finally give them the loophole they need to avoid legal prosecution (if illegal in their country), licensing, regulation, and/or heavy taxes (if legal, but controlled).

Assume, for example, that you live in a country where online gambling is illegal. Here's how someone could design an online casino where they can profit from gambling, but it's not legally considered gambling as it uses the same process as the D3 RMAH. I've compared D3 to a slot machine before, but this is a lot more in-depth (a practical guide). :)

I'll use the example of a virtual MMO game called "Casino World", although this could easily be done through a webpage as well.

• In this game, you can wander around a virtual environment with other players. It's a virtual casino consisting of games like Craps, Blackjack, Roulette, Slot Machines, Poker, Horse Races, Sports Betting, plus any other game that casinos typically have.

• The Casino World programming team can control the odds of all their games.

• Real money is not exchanged within the game, but rather players use a virtual currency which we'll call "G Credits".

• When players first buy the game, they're given a certain quantity of "G Credits" to start out with. However, if they want any more "G Credits" they have to buy them other players on the Player-Run Auction House using real cash. Alternatively, they can provide special services for other players in exchange for "G Credits", or play the in-game "free to play" games that pay out "G Credits" in small quantities and over long term.

• As a player, if you want to convert your "G Credits" into cash, you have to sell them to other players on the same Auction House.

• When participating in the Auction House, the casino will take a cut of your transactions. There will be a listing charge and a percentage based the amount being sold (the percentage is adjustable too, based on your seniority. The casino will take less if you're a more senior member.) It will not cost anything to buy items or G-Credits though.

• In-game items can be won as prizes or bought and sold between players. These items can be used to customize your appearance, populate your virtual "Casino World" apartment or house, or actually do useful things like upgrading your in-game membership card allowing you to play different games, play games with higher stakes, or offer various forms of insurance. Special items can also increase your odds or chances of winning prizes (1% increase of odds in winning x card or x item.)

• Although many prizes are useful, they can also be converted into "G Credits".

• Players start out with low social status and they need to upgrade their membership card (upgrades purchased from the other players on the Auction House) to play more games, play games with higher stakes, unlock social or gaming "skills", or get access to new areas and elite rooms. Players also need to pay fees to play games, but having certain upgrades on their membership card will cut down on those costs.

• The game will also have a lot of socializing; private rooms or public chat areas where virtual drinks or dancing women can be purchased for "G Credits".

• When players sell their "G-Credits" to other users, this real cash goes into their in-game Bank Account. Using this cash, they can use it to shop at the Casino Store to buy real items or video games. Alternatively, if you want to "cash out" to receive the real money, there are additional fees and percentage cuts that you must pay.

• All of these transactions need to take place between players, and "Casino World" is just providing a service to allow them to safely trade and communicate with each other. It's important to keep some fees low to encourage gameplay. But, the idea is to get users playing the gambling games, get them addicted, which forces them to purchase "G Credits" from other players. The company's job is to get players using the Auction House, because that's where their profit comes from.

• Since the company is not directly awarding prizes or paying out cash, they're not involved in gambling as all transactions take place only between players.

• The price they pay is receiving a percentage of winnings or losses in exchange for legalizing gambling. However, because they can increase player numbers (being legalized and all), it's an automated electronic game, and they avoid licensing and taxes, they are substantially lowering their expenses and raising revenue. They also make money by selling goods (e.g. video games or merchandise within their Casino Store.)

There's a lot of consider in a system like this and it needs live player testing and analysis. You need to balance "G Credit" sinks to keep it valuable, while also providing enough "G Credit" wins so that players keep using the Auction House. But, the "Casino World" operators have complete control over the virtual currency flow as well as the games itself; they can control all odds, or adjust per player based on their behavior or psychology. And even those minor adjustments can be made automatically, ensuring that all of your players keep paying the machine.

What's great about this approach to online gambling is that even in countries where it's legal, it's typically regulated and you pay absurd taxes or licensing fees. Using this system, however, it's not gambling but rather just a video game with players who trade with each other so you can avoid all of those extra expenses.

All the "Casino World" owners are doing is "introducing a powerful auction house system that will provide a safe, fun, and easy-to-use way for players to buy and sell G Credits they obtain within Casino World. Items can be sold and purchased using real-world money or G Credits. Casino World does not plan to post items for sale in the auction house. The driving purpose of the auction house is to provide players with a fun additional in-game option for what they do with the items and G Credits they obtain in the game."

There's nothing wrong with this at all.

"But officer, this isn't gambling.. it's just a EBay like auction system which has been around forever. It's a PLAYER-RUN auction house and we're just providing a safe and secure way for players to sell their G Credits."

This can sound a little complicated and there's a lot I left out (e.g. "What If" scenarios.) But, I'm hoping you can work this out in your mind and see how it would operate. If you have any questions, though, let me know.